Month: July 2017

OPEC’s Existential Sucker Punch

Date: 30/07/17 Bloomberg You wait decades for an existential crisis, then two come along at once. At least that’s how it must feel for OPEC’s beleaguered ministers. In the short term the market for their oil is being eroded by rising production outside their control. Looking further ahead, oil demand itself is under threat from…

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July 31, 2017 at 06:12PM

Plummeting July 31 Temperatures In The US Over The Past Century

Prior to 1960, July 31 temperatures were much hotter in the US. On July 31, 1917 almost half of the US was over 95 degrees, but since 1960 the US has averaged about one station out of five over 95F.

On this date in 1934, McPherson Kansas was 116 degrees. McPherson was 43 degrees cooler today, with a maximum temperature of 73 degrees.

On this date 100 years ago, almost the entire eastern half of the US was over 90 degrees, and there were 100 degree temperatures coast to coast.

The Pacific Northwest is having one of their coldest years on record, and temperatures have been declining there for a century.

But they are having some hot weather for a few days, so they are the new canary in the global warming coal mine.

 

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July 31, 2017 at 05:41PM

Persistent truth telling climate sceptics cause the BoM to shaft itself again

We blogged on this subject 6th July – But sceptics have been busy behind the scenes as evidenced by Jennifer Marohasy who has blogged a deliciously misleading letter of explanation from the BoM to Minister Frydenberg. Oh how quick the BoM colossus can respond when the Minister’s office calls.
Today Jennifer and Lance have made the front page of The Australian. For large picture. I can hear the BoM molars grinding from here.

I think this is the text of the article – came in by email
The Bureau of Meteorology has ordered a full review of temperature recording equipment and procedures after the peak weather agency was caught tampering with cold winter temperature logs in at least two locations.

The bureau has admitted that a problem with recording very low temperatures is more widespread than
Goulburn and the Snowy Mountains but rejected it has ­attempted to manipulate temperature records.
The bureau’s chief executive, Andrew Johnson, has called for an urgent review and the immediate replacement of recording equipment at a number of undisclosed sites. The action was outlined in a letter to federal Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg and follows weeks of turmoil over why data showing minus 10.4C readings at Goulburn and Thredbo went missing.

Bush meteorologist Lance Pidgeon blew the whistle on the missing data after watching the minus 10.4C
Goulburn recording from July 2 disappear from the bureau’s website. “The temperature dropped to minus 10.4, stayed there for some time and then it changed to minus 10 and then it disappeared,” Mr Pidgeon said.

He relayed his concerns to scientist Jennifer Marohasy, who has queried the bureau’s treatment of historical temperature data. After questions were asked, the bureau restored the original recording of minus 10.4C to its website. A bureau spokeswoman said the low recording had been checked for “quality assurance” before being posted.

The bureau said limits were set on how low temperatures could go at some stations before a manual check was needed to confirm them. “The bureau’s quality ­control system, designed to filter out spurious low or high values was set at minus 10 minimum for Goulburn which is why the record automatically adjusted,” a bureau spokeswoman said.

“The error was picked up yesterday internally and quality control processes are being reviewed for those
stations where temperatures below minus 10 are possible.”

Dr Johnson told Mr Frydenberg the failure to record temperatures of minus 10.4C at Goulburn on July 2 was due to equipment being “not fit for purpose”.

A similar failure had deleted a reading of minus 10.4 at Thredbo Top on July 16 even though temperatures at that station had been recorded as low as minus 14.7 in the past. That temperature was still blank on the bureau’s website yesterday.

Dr Johnson said failure to record the very low temperatures had “been interpreted by a member of the
community in such a way as to imply the bureau sought to manipulate the data record”.

“I categorically reject this ­implication,” he said.

The bureau’s handling of temperature data and the homogenisation of records to form a national average has been controversial.

It has said warmer minimum temperatures were one reason for the upward trend in average temperatures due
to climate change.

In a letter to Mr Frydenberg, Dr Johnson said: “Preliminary analysis had indicated the ACORN-SAT national
temperature record had not been affected by the issues experienced at ­Goulburn and Thredbo Top ­Station.”

But, he added, electronic ­hardware “not only at Goulburn and Thredbo Top Station, but also a small number of other automatic weather stations in cold climate locations, are not fit for purpose”.

“I have taken steps to ensure that the hardware at this locations is replaced immediately,” he said. “To ensure that I have full ­assurance on these matters, I have actioned an internal review of our AWS network and associated data quality control processes for temperature observations.

“The review will be conducted by a member of the bureau’s senior leadership team and will ­involve
independent external ­expertise where appropriate.

“I expect the review to be conducted in a matter of weeks and I will report back to you as soon as it is
completed.”

Dr Marohasy said Dr Johnson’s claims of equipment failure were easily disproven by the screen shots that
showed the very low temperatures before being “quality assured” out.

She said claims the omission of the very low temperatures did not affect the national temperature record were also easily disproven.

“While Goulburn station is not a listed ACORN-SAT station, it is used to homogenise Canberra and Canberra is an ACORN-SAT station,” Dr Marohasy said.

The bureau did not respond to questions about how widely the quality control system had been applied and at what upper temperature the cut-off had been set.

Dr Marohasy has evidence of the initial minus 10.4C recording at Thredbo before it was deleted for quality ­ assurance.

“This either reflects an extraordinary incompetence, or a determination to prevent evidence of low
temperatures,” Dr Marohasy said.

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Top Comments

Trevor
Headline in Sydney newspaper: “Record July temperature”. Elsewhere in body of article: “hottest July day for 88 years”. The idea is that we are boiling in global warming…EXCEPT it was warmer 88 years ago. Almost all of the so called contemporary records reported are not records at all. It has been hotter, colder warmer milder before;….. all accurately measured in the last 130 years. Nothing has changed except the fakers in the global warming industry.

Richard 5 hours ago
Oh my! We wouldn’t want to include too many low readings in the national temperature record, would we.
Wouldn’t fit the cashed up climate cabal narrative, now would it!

GD 6 hours ago
Excellent work by Lance Pidgeon and Jennifer Marohasy. Thank you, Jennifer, for your persistence in pursuing the temperature manipulations by the BOM. Not only is the BOM making a mockery of supposedly scientific data collected in the present, its actions are affecting historical records for the future, decades and centuries ahead.

This is disgraceful behaviour by scientists more interested in a climate agenda than truth in climate data.

Bryan 3 hours ago
This is an Orwellian nightmare. We are paying for expensive unreliable power to ” save the world from
catastrophic climate change” and anything that might refute this religious doctrine is airbrushed from the record. It’s pathetic

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July 31, 2017 at 05:33PM

July 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my July projections, as well as last month’s projections for June, to see how well they fared. Note that I’ve changed to a different NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset as of the July 2017 projections. More details below. Data Set Projected Actual…

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July 31, 2017 at 04:41PM