Month: September 2018

Media Hype IPCC ‘Climate Catastrophe’ By 2040 Prediction

Hundreds of diplomats from around the world are set to scrutinize the IPCC’s latest Summary for Policy Makers, which contains predictions and benchmarks findings on staving off a climate catastrophe by 2040.

PARIS, France – The world’s nations will gather at a United Nations conference in South Korea on Monday, October 1 to review and approve a 20-page bombshell – distilled from more than 6,000 scientific studies – laying out narrowing options for staving off climate catastrophe.

When the 195 countries who signed off on the Paris Agreement in 2015 requested a report from UN-led scientists on the feasibility of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the gesture seemed to many unnecessary.

The treaty, after all, enjoined the world to block the rise in Earth’s surface temperature at “well below” 2C compared to preindustrial levels, adding a safety buffer to the two-degree threshold long seen as the guardrail for a climate-safe (sic) world.

Since then, however, a crescendo (sic) of deadly heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and superstorms engorged by rising seas – with less than 1C warming so far – has convinced scientists that the danger cursor (sic) needed to be reset.

“There is increasing and very robust evidence of truly severe and catastrophic risks even at the lower bounds of these temperature targets,” said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.

The promise of “pursuing efforts” to limit warming to 1.5C – added to the Paris treaty at the last minute, in part to assuage poor nations who felt short-changed on other fronts – caught scientists off-guard.

“There wasn’t very much literature on 1.5C warming 3 years ago,” said Jim Skea, a professor of at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy, and a co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), the UN science body charged with writing the “Special Report” on 1.5C.

But is it feasible?

Of hundreds of climate models in 2015 projecting a low-carbon future, only two or 3 aimed for a 1.5C global warming cap.

The 20-page which will be collectively scrutinized, line-by-line, by hundreds of diplomats through Friday, October 5 – contains several benchmark findings, according to a draft obtained by AFP.

At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, for example, the Earth’s surface will heat up beyond the 1.5C threshold by 2040, the report concludes with “high confidence.”

To have a fighting chance of staying under the 1.5C cap, the global economy must, by 2050, become “carbon neutral,” meaning no additional CO2 can be allowed to leach into the atmosphere.

In addition, the report suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity will need to peak in 2020 and curve sharply downward from there.

So far, we are still moving in the wrong direction: after remaining stable for 3 years – raising hopes the peak had come (sic) – emissions rose in 2017 to historic levels.

For many scientists, these targets are technically feasible but politically or socially unrealistic, along with the broader 1.5C goal.

Full post

The post Media Hype IPCC ‘Climate Catastrophe’ By 2040 Prediction appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

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September 30, 2018 at 05:45PM

Monbiot: The Stimulus Effect of the Renewable Economy is Tempting Green Entrepreneurs to Fly More

Green PassGreen Pass

Hypocrisy is alive and well on planet Green.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to Guardian Columnist George Monbiot, the renewable energy economy is putting so much money into the pockets of greens, that money is being blown on high carbon activities like long distance holiday flights.

While economic growth continues we’ll never kick our fossil fuels habit

George Monbiot
Wed 26 Sep 2018 15.00 AEST

There may be more bicycles but there will also be more planes. We’re still in denial about the scale of the threat to the planet

We’re getting there, aren’t we? We’re making the transition towards an all-electric future. We can now leave fossil fuels in the ground and thwart climate breakdown. Or so you might imagine, if you follow the technology news.

So how come oil production, for the first time in history, is about to hit 100m barrels a day? How come the oil industry expects demand to climb until the 2030s? How is it that in Germany, whose energy transition (Energiewende) was supposed to be a model for the world, protesters are being beaten up by police as they try to defend the 12,000-year-old Hambacher forest from an opencast mine extracting lignite – the dirtiest form of coal? Why have investments in Canadian tar sands – the dirtiest source of oil – doubled in a year?

The answer is, growth. There may be more electric vehicles on the world’s roads, but there are also more internal combustion engines. There be more bicycles, but there are also more planes. It doesn’t matter how many good things we do: preventing climate breakdown means ceasing to do bad things. Given that economic growth, in nations that are already rich enough to meet the needs of all, requires an increase in pointless consumption, it is hard to see how it can ever be decoupled from the assault on the living planet.

When a low-carbon industry expands within a growing economy, the money it generates stimulates high-carbon industry. Anyone who works in this field knows environmental entrepreneurs, eco-consultants and green business managers who use their earnings to pay for holidays in distant parts of the world and the flights required to get there. Electric vehicles have driven a new resource rush, particularly for lithium, that is already polluting rivers and trashing precious wild places. Clean growth is as much of an oxymoron as clean coal. But making this obvious statement in public life is treated as political suicide.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/26/economic-growth-fossil-fuels-habit-oil-industry

Good luck convincing greens not to fly so much.

As WUWT reported California Governor Jerry Brown’s recent eco-conference caused a near traffic jam of private jets parked at the local airport.

The Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme was recently criticised for his ridiculously excessive air travel, even for a UN executive.

Then of course you have all the enormous fly in COP climate conferences, 10s of thousands of attendees and hangers on who likely didn’t arrive by wooden coracle.

A study published last May suggested greens believe they have a moral license to pollute.

I believe the evidence suggests that, barring a few honourable exceptions, the green vision of the future is a world where the rules only apply to the little people, not to important people like themselves and their fellow greens, who will still need access to cheap energy and jet travel to ensure they can continue to make the world a better place.

via Watts Up With That?

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September 30, 2018 at 05:39PM

Dangerous References To Climate History

Twitter feels threatened by history.

 

22 Nov 1974 – SCIENCE DOCUMENTARY New ice age ‘could be in our lifetime’ – Trove

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

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September 30, 2018 at 05:38PM

Record cold in Poland

30 Sep 2018 – Last night, “he cold pole was minus 7.9, so a new record of the cold of September came,

but if there was no fog, it would even have minus 11,” wrote meteorologist Arnold Jakubczyk on Twitter.

In the night from Saturday to Sunday the cold record for this month fell in the Czarny Dunajec to minus 7.9 degrees.

“Black Dunajec today was -5.8 at 2 m and – 9.2 at the ground.” Normally a shock, because the record was broken in September,” he reports.

On the night of 25/26 September 2018 the lowest temperature was measured at Kasprowy Wierch – minus 6.6 degrees.

https://navva.org/poland/nation/a-cold-record-in-poland-has-been-made-meteorologist-normally-shocking/

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link

The post Record cold in Poland appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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September 30, 2018 at 04:42PM