Month: January 2019

Tale Of Two Stations…Striking Contrast: Urban Tokyo Warms Strongly While Rural Island Station Shows No Warming


By Kirye in Tokyo

Hachijojima is a rural-type island off the coast from the megapolis of Tokyo in the Pacific.

What makes Hachijojima interesting is that it is ideal for comparing its trend to a heavily urban environment, like Tokyo’s.

Hachijojima is located roughly 300 km, out to sea, from Tokyo and thus is hardly impacted by urbanization. Image: Google Earth.

What follows is a close up of the island and the approximate location of the measurement station:

Hachijojima is relatively very rural and unaffected from the factors of urbanization. Image: Google Earth

Such a comparison can allow us to see the urban signal on measured data, like temperature. The following chart shows that there has been no warming at this island over the past 70 years, using the unadjusted data from the Japanese Meteorology Agency (JMA):

There’s been no trend at all in the mean annual temperature at Hachijojima over the past 70 years! Chart: Kirye.

Now when we compare rural Hachijojima to massively urban Tokyo, using the mean daily maximum temperature, we can clearly see the urban heat island (UHI) effect:

While Hachijojima has seen no only a modest warming trend since 1980, modern urban Tokyo has seen a strong warming. This is very likely due to the urban heat island effect where steel, concrete and asphalt store energy from the sun and fuels consumed by cars, buildings and factories. Chart: Kirye.

UHI effect since start of Japanese industrialization

The data for both stations go way back to 1907:

Click here to enlarge. Chart: Kirye.

From 1907 to 1935, the trend for both was very similar, with no rise. Then there was a rise for both stations from the 1930s to 1961. Note how in this period Tokyo temperature rose more quickly than Hachijojima.  Next came the cooling of the the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s, followed by the most recent warming.

Tokyo warms, while rural island cools!

Note how the most recent warming since the 1980s has been far stronger in Tokyo then it has been in rural Hachijojima. Tokyo, once significantly cooler, is about as warm as Hachijojima today.

And since the peak in 1998, Hachijojima has been cooling a bit while Tokyo has been warming!

Can all this be explained by CO2? Honestly not.

Obviously the urban heat island (UHI) effect is the real driver in Tokyo and is corrupting urban data, while natural ocean factors may be at work to account for the difference as well.
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Pierre Gosselin contributed to this article

via NoTricksZone

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January 1, 2019 at 07:43AM

Top 12 Debunked Climate Scares of 2018

Reposted from The GWPF

Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-08.38.09Screen-Shot-2018-12-31-at-08.38.09

January 2018:  Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: Study

PARIS (AFP) – Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday (Jan 17) which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

February:  ‘Sinking’ Pacific nation Tuvalu is actually getting bigger, new research reveals

The Pacific nation of Tuvalu — long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels — is actually growing in size, new research shows.

A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.

It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.

March: BBC forced to retract false claim about hurricanes

You may recall the above report by the BBC, which described how bad last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was, before commenting at the end: “A warmer world is bringing us a greater number of hurricanes and a greater risk of a hurricane becoming the most powerful category 5.I fired off a complaint, which at first they did their best to dodge. After my refusal to accept their reply, they have now been forced to back down

April: Corals can withstand another 100-250 Years of  climate change, new study

Heat-tolerant genes may spread through coral populations fast enough to give the marine creatures a tool to survive another 100-250 years of warming in our oceans.

May: Climate change causes beaches to grow by 3,660 square kilometers

Since 1984 humans have gushed forth 64% of our entire emissions from fossil fuels. (Fully 282,000 megatons of deplorable carbon “pollution”.) During this time, satellite images show that 24% of our beaches shrank, while 28% grew. Thus we can say that thanks to the carbon apocalypse there are 3,660 sq kms more global beaches now than there were thirty years ago.

June: Antarctica not losing ice, NASA researcher finds

NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally says his new study will show, once again, the eastern Antarctic ice sheet is gaining enough ice to offset losses in the west.

July: National Geographic admits they were wrong about notorious starving polar bear-climate claims

The narrative behind the viral photo of a polar bear starving, reportedly thanks to climate change, has been called into question by the National Geographic photographer who took it in the first place.

August: New study shows declining risk and increasing resilience to extreme weather in France

This risk factor for French residents of cities stricken by a disaster has been falling with every passing decade.

September: Coral bleaching is a natural event that has gone on for centuries, new study

Coral bleaching has been a regular feature of the Great Barrier Reef for the past 400 years, with evidence of repeated mass events dating back to well before Euro­pean settlement and the start of the industrial revolution.

October: Climate predictions could be wrong in UK and Europe

Current climate change predictions in the UK and parts of Europe may be inaccurate, a study conducted by researchers from the University of Lincoln, UK, and the University of Liège, Belgium, suggests.

November: Number and intensity of US hurricanes have remained constant since 1900

There’s been “no trend” in the number and intensity of hurricanes hitting the continental U.S. and the normalized damages caused by such storms over the past 117 years, according to a new study.

December: Alarmist sea level rise scenarios unlikely, says climate scientist Judith Curry

A catastrophic rise in sea levels is unlikely this century, with ­recent experience falling within the range of natural variability over the past several thousand years, according to a report on peer-­reviewed studies by US climate scientist Judith Curry.

HT/GWPF and Marcus

via Watts Up With That?

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January 1, 2019 at 07:10AM

Government Shutdown Delays UAH Global Temperature Update

The NOAA CLASS system we obtain our satellite orbit files (raw data) from has been taken offline until the government shutdown ends. As a result, our UAH monthly global temperature update is delayed.

via Roy Spencer, PhD.

http://bit.ly/2F0z1RM

January 1, 2019 at 06:35AM

2018 is the first year with no violent tornadoes in the United States

By Paul Homewood

 

Last week, the Washington Post picked up on the likelihood that 2018 would be the first year on record without a violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornado in the US. (There has apparently been one EF-4 in Manitoba).

I have been waiting for the year to actually finish, and can confirm that provisional NOAA data shows that this is true:

 

image

In the whirlwind that is 2018, there has been a notable lack of high-end twisters.

We’re now days away from this becoming the first year in the modern record with no violent tornadoes touching down in the United States. Violent tornadoes are the strongest on a 0 to 5 scale, or those ranked EF4 or EF5.

It was a quiet year for tornadoes overall, with below normal numbers most months. Unless you’re a storm chaser, this is not bad news. The low tornado count is undoubtedly a big part of the reason the 10 tornado deaths in 2018 are also vying to be a record low.

While we still have several days to go in 2018, and some severe weather is likely across the South to close it out, odds favor the country making it the rest of the way without a violent tornado.

If and when that happens, it will be the first time since the modern record began in 1950.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/26/will-be-first-year-with-no-violent-tornadoes-united-states/

As we can see from the graph, this is not a one off event last year. There has been a definite trend to declining numbers of violent tornadoes. It is also significant that we have now completed five years without an EF-5 tornado. The longest such spell on record was seven years, between 2000 and 2006, but on average there are 0.8 EF-5s a year.

It also looks as if the number of EF-3 tornadoes will be a record low as well, with a provisional total of ten. The previous low was twelve in 1987.

 

Roger Pielke Jr has also updated his 2013 paper on tornado damage, to include data up to 2017:

 

image

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1078312553892085761

 

His data mirrors the trends in violent tornadoes.

 

Final confirmation of total tornado numbers usually comes out in March, but preliminary data suggests that 2018 will be well below the 2005-15 average.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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January 1, 2019 at 06:18AM