Month: February 2019

China chills Norks-Trump Hanoi affair

Seems so obvious that after agreeing with Trump to meet in Hanoi Kim visited China on his train and Xi cooled the affair. US now must deal with the organ-grinder and put the monkey on “ignore”. US should clamp down sanctions on Kim & NORKS ruling aristocrats while trying to ease stress on mass of NK population. US should also clamp down on NORKS sanctions busting trans-shipments of goods at sea – force Xi to supply them everything by land. The NORKS have always been creatures of first the USSR then China – make Xi own the evil dictatorship.

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February 28, 2019 at 02:35PM

IS THE EUROPEAN PUBLIC FINALLY TIRING OF THE CLIMATE SCARE?

That is what Joanne Nova is reporting. She may be on to something, but only the next elections can decide. While no doubt many are tiring of high energy costs, many also fear weak immigration policies too.  One thing that should be expected is a slow down in the costly green policies, which is good news for us all. Once a few nations get off this "runaway train" others must surely follow, unless the majority see sense and start applying the brake

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February 28, 2019 at 02:22PM

Climate Breakdown In 1948!

By Paul Homewood

 

image_thumb-149

The UK has broken the record for its warmest winter day for the second consecutive day, with a temperature of 21.2°C in Kew Gardens, London.

The UK has broken the record for its warmest winter day for the second consecutive day, with a temperature of 21.2°C in Kew Gardens, London.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47374936

 

There was a big song and dance about the new record temperature set at Kew this week, 21.2C or 70F.

We are told that summerlike temperatures at this time of year are unheard of. Caroline Lucas even ludicrously called it “climate breakdown

 

Yet back in March 1948, we had even higher temperatures early in the month, on the 9th:

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report-1950s

 

The high of 75F recorded at Wealdstone that day is probably even more exceptional than the record at Kew this week , on the 26th.

We would expect March daytime temperatures to be maybe 4F higher than February, but given that there is only 11 days between 26th Feb and 9th March, the climatological difference for these dates would be much smaller, perhaps 2F.

So the temperature set at Wealdstone in 1948 would, in relative terms, be much more extreme than Kew’s.

 

It will probably come as no surprise that the meteorological set up in 1948 was very similar to this week’s, with high pressure sat over the south of England, and a deep low over Iceland, combining to pull up a warm airflow from Madeira:

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https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/digitalFile_d33f541b-5294-4a79-bec9-aed78d801e4a/ 

 

While weather events such as this week’s and 1948’s are rare, they are just that – weather events.

Caroline Lucas and her alarmist friends should study a bit of history.

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February 28, 2019 at 01:42PM

Andrew Dessler: The Certain Climate Alarmist

Guest essay by Robert Bradley Jr.

“This warming [of 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit this century] is as certain as death and taxes.” (Professor Andrew Dessler, below)

Andrew Dessler is one of the leading climate scientists/alarmists of his generation. And he is a master at presenting his case, not unlike a highly skilled lawyer. He knows the answers–and counter-arguments are just noise.

From a YouTube video – notice the Mannian similarities

His textbook, Introduction to Modern Climate Change (2nd edition: 2016), does not seriously engage a range of opinions in its 250 pages. A review of the text/index confirms that many key controversies and open questions are either downplayed or absent, thereby creating–in his world–settled alarmist science.

I will later write an in-depth review of this textbook, which not only covers physical science but also related issues in political economy, energy economics, and history. Suffice it to say that Dessler dodges numerous germane issues in his primer. Here is a list of the wholly missing areas, presented alphabetically, that the author needs to address in a 3rd revised edition:

  • Argument from authority
  • Climategate
  • Climate-change exaggeration
  • CO2 forcing: logarithmic, not linear
  • Confirmation bias
  • Deep ecology
  • Deep-ocean mixing (re “missing heat”)
  • Energy density
  • “Fudge factors” (re climate models)
  • Government failure (vs. “market failure”)
  • Iris Effect (re “missing heat”)

Dessler’s latest op-ed (he is a favorite in the Houston Chronicle), “Why the Green New Deal Makes Me Hopeful About Climate Change,” demonstrates these character traits/opinions.

He is the smartest guy in the room and argues from authority.

“As a climate scientist, I have studied the impacts of human emissions of carbon dioxide on the climate system for nearly 20 years. Over this time, my research, as well as research by my colleagues, has made me increasingly worried abut the impacts of climate change on human society.”

He is certain that the current climate-model predictions are correct.

“If we don’t take action, unchecked greenhouse-gas emissions would lead to global-average warming over this century of 5 degrees Fahrenheit to 9 degrees Fahrenheit…. This warming is as certain as death and taxes.”

He is a deep ecologist, fearing that the optimal, fragile climate will be torn asunder to remake human civilization in a very bad way.

“With continued fossil fuel use, we might see warming over the current century sufficient to literally remake the Earth’s environment and our place within it.”

He sees wind and solar as the savior (quite unlike his mentor/hero James Hansen, who understands the fundamental concept of energy density).

” … there is hope. The cost of wind and solar energy, which do not emit dangerous greenhouse gases, has dropped rapidly in the past decade and is now competitive with coal energy in many places.”

I am not a climate scientist. But I can follow the bottom lines of the argument pretty well–as have hundreds of other “skeptics” of climate alarmism, thanks to the Internet and open publishing. (Regular reading of Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. can go a long way in this regard.)

Gerald North: A Second Opinion

But my distrust of climate Malthusianism also relies on the views of Professor Dessler’s senior colleague in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M, Gerald North.

Back in the corporate world working for a company (Enron Corp.) that was very active on the climate issue (alarmist, with six profit centers at stake), I hired Professor North as a consultant to give me the inside scoop on climate science. What he told me was very interesting, including that climate models were unreliable. (It is models that generate scary warming scenarios.)

North via email said these things about climate models in 1998/99:

“We do not know much about modeling climate. It is as though we are modeling a human being. Models are in position at last to tell us the creature has two arms and two legs, but we are being asked to cure cancer.”

“There is a good reason for a lack of consensus on the science. It is simply too early. The problem is difficult, and there are pitifully few ways to test climate models.”

“The different models couple to the oceans differently. There is quite a bit of slack here (undetermined fudge factors). If a model is too sensitive, one can just couple in a little more ocean to make it agree with the record. This is why models with different sensitivities all seem to mock the record about equally well. (Modelers would be insulted by my explanation, but I think it is correct.)”

“[Model results] could also be sociological: getting the socially acceptable answer.”

Professor North’s opinion of speculative, not settled science (contra-Dessler) was reconfirmed with a 2010 email from North to Sheldon Graham Jr (dated January 6, 2010):

“In another decade of research we will have squared away a lot of our uncertainties about forced climate change. As this approaches we can be thinking about what to do if the warming does indeed appear to be caused by humans and to what extent things are changing as result.”

North told me the same thing twenty years ago. The year 2020 is just ahead for another ten-year increment, but I imagine the mirage will remain. (Professor Dessler, please call your office ….)

Conclusion

Andrew Dessler is a very serious, able climate scientist. His books and tweets  need to be read and understood by his critics. It is a rare window in the mentality of a true believer, a Malthusian deep ecologist who is sure he is right about both the alarm and the need and ability of government intervention to save us from certain peril. 

Let the debate continue. Contrary to Dessler’s view, there are two sides to the climate debate, and one of them offers the hope and expectation that the other does not.


Originally posted at Master Resource, reposted here at the request of the author.

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February 28, 2019 at 12:10PM