Month: February 2019

Climate Alarmists Should Cool Off About The Warm Weather

It goes without saying that the normal reaction to unseasonably warm weather is to leg it to the nearest beer garden and have a pint. But while us reasonable folk in Britain have been busy enjoying the warm spell, the climate alarmists have all gone into meltdown.

Green Party MP Caroline Lucas has already used the
weather as an excuse to wheel out the old clichés about global warming being
the greatest threat to our species. ‘We shouldn’t be enjoying a heatwave in
February’, reads the breathless headline on her article for the Independent.
‘This is what climate breakdown feels like’, she says. In the Guardian,
journalist Jonn Elledge asks: ‘Am I the only one
who’s terrified about the warm weather?’

It is true that it was a first when temperatures topped 20 degrees
centigrade this week. We’ve now had the warmest February day on record. But
that is only alarming until you consider that the previous hottest February day
came in 1998 – over 21 years ago.

The inconvenient truth for the green lobby is that the current unseasonal spell of warm weather is just that: weather. The Met Office has already said the cause of the current hot spell is a high-pressure front dragging warm air over from Africa, not global warming. And yet the same alarmists who claim that unseasonal cold spells can’t be taken as proof that global warming isn’t real are now asserting that the current warm spell proves beyond all doubt that we’re heading for the end of the world. […]

This week’s lovely weather is not worth worrying about. The bottom line is that one February hot spell does not mean the world is dying, and climate alarmists would be better off if they dropped the doom-mongering and just enjoyed the sun like the rest of us. This is Britain, after all, and the rain is guaranteed to be back in no time.

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The post Climate Alarmists Should Cool Off About The Warm Weather appeared first on The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

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February 28, 2019 at 07:38AM

A New Paper Affirms That Storm Energy And Cyclone Intensities Have Rapidly Declined Since 1979

As a continuation of the IPCC’s observation (2013) that there has been no detectable trend in storm and cyclone intensification (or extreme weather in general) that can be clearly linked to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions, a new paper documents the rapid decline in eddy kinetic (EKE) and mean available potential energy (MAPE) since the late 1970s. This undermines the popularized claims that human activity worsens extreme weather events.

Image Source: Gertler and O’Gorman, 2019

In Chapter 2 of the 5th assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) documented a lack of any detectable global trends in extreme weather events, including cyclone intensities, during the “anthropogenic climate change” era.

Quotations Source: IPCC, 2013

In recent years, in fact, there have been several papers indicating that climate warming has the effect of decreasing storm and cyclone intensities and frequencies, or stabilizing weather patterns.

Image Sources: Chang et al., 2016 and Sugi et al., 2015

Image Source: Laliberté et al., 2015

A new paper published in PNAS this past week further affirms that the available energy powering storm activity has dramatically weakened since 1979.

Image Source: Gertler and O’Gorman, 2019

This new paper can be added to the long list of recent scientific publications indicating that storms and cyclone activity has been declining in recent decades.


Truchelut and Staeling, 2018 

“The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought. We introduce an extended climatology of U.S. tropical cyclone activity based on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and use this data set to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. The [hurricane landfall] drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average.”
“Scaling this landfall activity metric by basin-wide activity reveals a statistically significant downward trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period.”

Klotzbach et al., 2018

“Continental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS [Continental United States] landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity show significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.”


Zhang et al., 2018     

Over the 1997–2014 period, the mean frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was markedly lower (~18%) than the period 1980–1996. Here we show that these changes were driven by an intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP tied to the changes in the Walker circulation, which arose primarily in response to the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic, while the SST anomalies associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the tropical Pacific and the anthropogenic forcing play only secondary roles.”

Zhao et al., 2018

“A vigorous debate has currently focused on the relationship between increasing TC [tropical cyclone] activity and increasing SST [sea surface temperatures] (Knutson et al. 2010). … [O]ver the WNP [Western North Pacific] basin, a significant decrease of TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] has been observed since 1998 (Liu and Chan 2013; Lin and Chan 2015; Zhao and Wang 2016). Global TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] has showed a similar reduction since the late 1990s (Maue 2011). Change of TCF over the past few decades does not appear to be consistent with changes in local SST. Observational analyses further pointed out that there is no significant correlation between the TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] and local SST [sea surface temperatures] over the WNP  [Western North Pacific] basin (Chan 2006; Yeh et al. 2010).”


Heller, 2017

“The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE). In general, the results of this study corroborate these findings.”
“[W]hile hurricane activity was greater during the LIA, it also had more frequent periods of drought compared to the MCA (Burn and Palmer 2014), suggesting that climate fluctuations were more pronounced in the LIA compared to the MCA. The changes in the diatom distribution and fluctuations in chl-a recorded in this study starting around 1350 also indicate that variations in climate have become more distinct during the LIA and from ~1850-1900. … [C]limate variability has increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO.”

Wellford et al., 2017

Since the late 1800s, in contrast to much of the Southeastern USA, the Georgia coast has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls, particularly in recent decades. As a result, coastal storm preparedness complacency appears to be rampant along the Georgia coastline. Both local and state governments were unprepared for shadow evacuation during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The study described here includes an examination of temporal and spatial trends in hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast from 1750 to 2012. Since 1750, 18 of the 24 recorded hurricanes that made landfall along the Georgia coast occurred between 1801 and 1900, yet the hurricane intensities have declined since 1851.”

Zou et al., 2018

“The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world’s most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region.”
“Based on 53‐year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.”

Zhang et al., 2017

Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.”

Chen et al., 2017

“Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. …  Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent.”
Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.”

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February 28, 2019 at 07:33AM

DNC-2016: Total Ignorance of Computer Security

The Democratic Party is the party of obscurantism. But the following example of cyber-security ignorance is hilarious (WikiLeaks, http://archive.is/K3153):

“From: Palermo, Rachel
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2016 2:07 PM
To: Regional Press
Subject: Factivists was hacked. Here is our new password
Importance: High

We have been compromised! But it's all ok.

Here is our new password: HHQTevgHQ@z&8b6

It will now change every few weeks so prevent future issues. So as it is re-set, I will forward it along.”

This short fragment shows ignorance of basic computer security rules:

  1. Every user must have a separate account and password.
  2. Passwords are never emailed.
  3. If one decides to violate rules 1 and 2, at least don’t email the password to a list!

It is likely they were hacked many times in 2016, and most of these hacks were detected.

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February 28, 2019 at 07:23AM

Demonised diesel Land Rover Discovery 4×4 found to be 20 times CLEANER than a Renault Clio as new emissions test reveals which cars really are dirty

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Patsy Lacey

 

 

It appears Michael Gove has lost his main (supposed) reason for banning diesel and petrol cars:

 image

The latest diesel Land Rover Discovery 4×4 – a car demonised for being dirty – is actually 20 times less polluting than a Renault Clio mini hatchback (also with a diesel engine), radical new independent emissions tests have revealed.

Remarkably, the British-built Land Rover finishes with a top ranking A-grade in the new car Air Index eco-rating scale carried out in the UK – suggesting it is one of the cleanest and greenest vehicles on the road despite it’s hulk-like size and Chelsea Tractor image.

By contrast the French Renault Clio hatchback – once famed for its popular ‘Papa and Nicole’ adverts – has been awarded the worst E-grade for being one of the most polluting.

The study adds to the evidence piling up in favour of diesel cars after tests by German motoring association ADAC last week found that the latest Euro6 models were producing little to no harmful nitrogen oxide emissions during real-world measurements.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/article-6752439/Diesel-Land-Rover-Discovery-20-times-cleaner-dirty-Renault-Clio-supermini.html

There clearly need to be questions asked as to how cars like the Clio, itself supposedly Euro 6, can fail this test so badly. This maybe suggests lack of proper application of the new standards and monitoring by French authorities.

But the exercise does indicate that, with recent technological advances and rigorous application of standards, emissions from diesels can be brought down to extremely low levels.

As the Mail comments:

Their results call into question the controversial demonisation of diesel by politicians and green groups – and threatened with being banned from city centres – which has seen sales of cars using the fuel slump by about a third.

It follows similar tests carried out by independent body ADAC, which found that a new Euro6-rated diesel Mercedes family car produced zero NOx emissions during real-world tests, which a large BMW estate and Vauxhall Astra hatchback emitted barely any traces of the harmful pollutant.  

 

This demonisation of diesel has already had drastic effects on the UK car industry, with the news that Honda is to shut down its Swindon factory and Nissan are abandoning plans to build the X-Trail here.

Unfortunately for Britain’s car industry, Michael Gove’s real reason for wanting to ban diesel and petrol engined cars is not the spurious excuse of air pollution. It is instead the government’s obsession with climate change.

We will see the devastating impact of that on the industry in years to come.

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February 28, 2019 at 07:12AM