Month: August 2019

Hurricane Dorian

By Paul Homewood

This is the first update on Hurricane Dorian, which is currently north of the Bahamas, moving westwards as a Cat 4 with winds of 150 mph.

 cone graphic

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145744.shtml?cone#contents

The current forecast track has the storm staying away from the Florida coast, where it will then turn quickly north and then north east. On this track, it will probably hit the Carolinas as Cat 2.

However, the consensus seems to be that the actual track will end up being further east, which will be good news for everyone on that coast. The National Hurricane Centre admit that they are hedging on the safe side at the moment, quite rightly in my opinion. Just in the last couple of days, the forecast track has changed significantly, because of uncertainty about prevailing meteorological conditions.

Just as importantly, the heaviest rainfall is expected to fall at sea, with coastal margins expected to receive no more than ten inches.

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]

  .

So far this season, Atlantic hurricane activity has been very quiet with just three tropical storms and Hurricane Barry, which barely made Cat 1 before hitting Louisiana.

We are now entering what is climatologically the busiest time of year for hurricanes, but currently the Atlantic looks to be free of any potential hurricane formation for the next week at least.

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August 31, 2019 at 11:12AM

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