Beyond Petroleum Part Deux: “BP sees ‘peak oil’ in 2020s”

Guest “Looney Toons” by David Middleton

OPEC cuts oil demand forecasts, BP sees ‘peak oil’ in 2020s
September 14, 2020

LONDON (AP) — Developing countries’ difficulty in containing the spread of the coronavirus pandemic will keep a lid on global oil demand, particularly in India, the OPEC cartel said Monday as it cut its forecasts.

OPEC cut its estimates for world demand by 400,000 barrels a day for both this year and next. It now sees a drop in demand of 9.5 million barrels a day in 2020 and a rise of 6.6 million barrels in 2021.

“Risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of COVID-19 infection cases and potential vaccines,” the cartel said in a monthly report on the industry.


BP says it expects demand for crude oil to peak in the early 2020s. If governments become more aggressive about reducing carbon emissions, demand might never recover from the current slump, its said in a report on the industry’s outlook.


I just love lame-stream media headlines.

BP’s full report and supporting materials can be downloaded here:

Energy Outlook downloads and archive

“BP sees ‘peak oil’ in 2020s”… IF

BP actually sees peak oil demand in 2019…

Figure 1. Business-as-usual >100 million bbl/d into the 2030’s.

But, only under their economic suicide scenarios:

Rapid… more like rabid…

Rapid assumes the introduction of policy measures, led by a significant increase in carbon ‎prices, that result in carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050 from ‎‎2018 levels. Rapid is broadly in line with scenarios that are consistent with limiting the rise in ‎global temperatures by 2100 to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.‎

bp Energy Outlook ‎2020

Net zero… more like AOC-stupid

Net Zero assumes the policy measures of Rapid are reinforced by significant shifts in societal ‎and consumer behaviour and preferences – such as greater adoption of circular and sharing ‎economies and switching to low carbon energy sources. This increases the reduction in ‎carbon emissions by 2050 to over 95%. Net Zero is broadly in line with a range of scenarios ‎consistent with limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C. ‎

bp Energy Outlook ‎2020

Can you say “freeze in the dark”?

Both the Rapid and Net Zero scenarios assume a significant increase in carbon prices, ‎reaching $250/tonne of CO2 in the developed world by 2050 and $175/tonne in emerging ‎economies. This is much lower in the BAU scenario, with carbon prices reaching only $65 and ‎‎$35/tonne CO2 by 2050 on average in developed and emerging economies respectively.  ‎

bp Energy Outlook ‎2020

Bear in mind that a couple of years ago, the IPCC demanded YUGE carbon taxes to stay below the dreaded 1.5°C limit.

IPCC SR1.5 Carbon Tax Math

David Middleton / October 11, 2018

Guest seriousness by David Middleton

Over the past few days, I’ve posted a couple of articles by Michael Bastasch of the Daily Caller on the IPCC’s demands for a $240/gal tax on gasoline and $122 trillion to fight the Global War on Weather. Many commentators questioned the math behind the $240/gal gasoline tax. So, I thought I would put together a post showing the math.



The price tag was so high, that the highly respected environmental economist, Richard Tol, described it as “not feasible.

BP’s Looney Toons carbon taxes aren’t quite that staggering…

 Tax ($/tonne of CO2  $        35  $          65  $        175  $        250
 Gasoline ($/gal)   $    0.31  $      0.58  $      1.54  $      2.20
 Natural Gas ($/mcf)   $    1.86  $      3.45  $      9.30  $    13.30
 Coal ($/short ton)   $  73.53  $  136.55  $  367.63  $  525.18
Carbon tax effect on various energy sources.

Unless you are a consumer. Here are the taxes as a percentage of recent retail gasoline, residential natural gas and bituminous coal prices:

 Tax ($/tonne of CO2)   $        35  $          65  $        175  $        250
 Gasoline ($2.18/gal)  14% 26% 71% 101%
 Natural Gas ($15.37/mcf)  12% 22% 61% 87%
 Coal ($59.43 /short ton)  124% 230% 619% 884%
Carbon tax as percentage of recent energy prices.

But, why on Earth would an oil company be calling for such taxes on consumers?

Figure 2. Looney Toons!

Our new purpose and ambition are underpinned by four fundamental
judgements about the future. That the world is on an unsustainable path and its carbon budget is running out.


In August, we set out a new strategy in support of this purpose and
ambition. It will see bp transform from an International Oil Company focused on producing resources to an Integrated Energy Company focused on delivering solutions for customers.

Bernard C. Looney, BP CEO

Where have we heard this sort of psychobabble before?

‘Beyond Petroleum’ No More? BP Goes Back to Basics
Javier E. David | @TeflonGeek
Published 12:39 PM ET Mon, 22 April 2013 Updated 1:20 AM ET Tue, 23 April 2013

After a very public campaign to promote renewable energy, BP is inaugurating Earth Day as a markedly less “green” company — highlighting how certain business realities have run headlong into the once lofty expectations surrounding alternative energy.

In early April, Europe’s second-largest energy company quietly announced that it was divesting of its wind power assets, part of what the company referred to as BP’s “continuing effort to become a more focused oil and gas company and re-position the company for sustainable growth into the future.” The decision followed BP’s 2011 exit from solar power after 40 years in the business.



I guess it’s back to “Beyond Petroleum”

How do you get back there from here? Robotaxis! Despite taxing the living schist out of us, they expect that increasing prosperity will lead to an explosion of electric robotaxis…

Figure 3. Electric robotaxis… Yeah, that’s the ticket!

Even in the business-as-usual scenario, imaginary electric robotaxis will account 50% of the passenger vehicle-kilometres (VKM) driven by mid-century.

Figure 4. I’m still waiting for the flying cars we were supposed to get in the 21st Century… Might as well be flying unicorns.

Electric robotaxis…

What do oil companies produce apart from oil?

Natural gas, baby! Despite the imposition of massive taxes on natural gas consumption, demand will continue to rise in two of the three scenarios.

Figure 5. Natural gas is a gas!

Under the business-as-usual scenario, the civilized world will be paying a natural gas carbon tax of $3.45/mcf in 2050 and consuming 25% of it. The current wellhead price (Henry Hub) is only $2.32/mcf. Under the “net zero” scenario, unbridled prosperity will have delivered fleets of electric robotaxis, while we are paying a carbon tax of $13.30/mcf and still consuming as much natural gas as we were in 2000.

In fairness to the folks at Beyond Petroleum, several times they state that these scenarios aren’t forecasts…

Spencer Dale said: “The role of the Energy Outlook is not to predict or forecast how the ‎energy system is likely to change over time. We can’t predict the future; all the scenarios ‎discussed in this year’s Outlook will be wrong. Rather, the Outlook uses these different ‎scenarios to help better understand the range of uncertainty we face as the energy system ‎transitions to a lower carbon world. Improving our understanding of this uncertainty is an ‎important input into designing a strategy that is robust and resilient to the range of outcomes ‎we may face.”‎

bp Energy Outlook ‎2020

However, the lame-stream media don’t seem to have noticed…

BP’s Forecasts Peak Oil Demand

BP warns of oil demand peak by early 2020s

BP projects peak oil demand is very close or already happened

The Man Who Predicted the Future for BP Says Peak Oil Is Nigh

Oops! Strike the last one… It’s from 2013.

The Man Who Predicted the Future for BP Says Peak Oil Is Nigh
An ex-BP geologist says that we’ve hit peak oil, and that it will “break economies.”

By Brian Merchant

In a year that saw the United States reach near-historic levels of fossil fuel production, it seemed that the words ‘peak oil’ were scarcely uttered. But it’s still a looming question, that we have yet to satisfactorily answer—when are we going to run out of oil? Have we already started to? A renowned geologist, and a former top analyst for BP no less, says the answer is yes.

“We are probably in peak oil today, or at least in the foot-hills,” Dr. Richard Miller said recently at a talk in London. According to the Guardian, Miller “prepared BP’s in-house projections of future oil supply for BP from 2000 to 2007,” and is bringing peak oil back into focus at the end of a petroleum-soaked year. He says that oil production has already peaked in 37 oil-producing countries, and that global production is declining at about 3.5 million barrels every year. Continued reliance on oil, and the coming shortage, will do nothing less than “break economies.”


Motherboard, December 24, 2013

It’s amazing that Peak Oil 2013 still entailed economies jumping off off a Seneca Cliff into Olduvai Gorge.  While Peak Oil 2020 will be delivered by electric robotaxis! You really couldn’t make this sort of schist up if you tried.


BP’s annual statistical reviews of world energy are invaluable resources. Beyond Petroleum Part Deux is 100%…

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via Watts Up With That?

September 16, 2020 at 04:27PM

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