Textbook – Climate Change Reconsidered II – Physical Science

Climate Change Reconsidered II Physical Science

Table of Contents

1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations ……………………………………………………. 7

Key Findings ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 8
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 9

1.1 Model Simulation and Forecasting ……………………………………………………… 14
1.2 Modeling Techniques ……………………………………………………………………………. 33
1.3 Elements of Climate ………………………………………………………………………………. 42
1.4 Large Scale Phenomena and Teleconnections …………………………………….122

2. Forcings and Feedbacks ……………………………………………………………………………………… 149

Key Findings ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 149
Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 150

2.1 Carbon Dioxide ……………………………………………………………………………………… 151
2.2 Methane …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 165
2.3 Nitrous Oxide ………………………………………………………………………………………… 181
2.4 Clouds …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 184
2.5 Aerosols ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 193
2.6 Other Forcings and Feedbacks ……………………………………………………………… 228

3. Solar Forcing of Climate ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 247

Key Findings ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 247
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 248

3.1 Solar Irradiance …………………………………………………………………………………….. 250
3.2 Cosmic Rays ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 265
3.3 Temperature …………………………………………………………………………………………… 283
3.4 Precipitation …………………………………………………………………………………………… 316
3.5 Other Climatic Variables ……………………………………………………………………….. 329
3.6 Future Influences …………………………………………………………………………………… 344

4. Observations: Temperature Records …………………………………………………………………….. 349

Key Findings …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 349
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 350

4.1 Global Temperature Records …………………………………………………………………… 351
4.2 The Non-Uniqueness of Current Temperatures …………………………………….. 383
4.3 Predicted vs. Observed Warming Effects on (ENSO) …………………………….. 616

5. Observations: The Cryosphere ………………………………………………………………………………. 629

Key Findings …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 629
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 630

5.1 Glacial Dynamics ……………………………………………………………………………………… 634
5.2 Glaciers as Paleo-Thermometers ……………………………………………………………. 637
5.3 Modern Global Ice Volume and Mass Balance ………………………………………. 637
5.4 Antarctic Ice Cap ………………………………………………………………………………………. 639
5.5 Greenland Ice Cap …………………………………………………………………………………….. 641
5.6 Other Arctic Glaciers ………………………………………………………………………………… 647
5.7 The Long Ice Core Record ………………………………………………………………………… 649
5.8 Ice-sheet Mass Balance …………………………………………………………………………….. 651
5.9 Mountain Glaciers …………………………………………………………………………………….. 671
5.10 Sea and Lake Ice ……………………………………………………………………………………… 691
5.11 Late Pleistocene Glacial History …………………………………………………………….. 702
5.12 Holocene Glacial History ………………………………………………………………………… 709

6. Observations: The Hydrosphere and Oceans …………………………………………………………. 713

Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 713

6.1 The Hydrosphere ………………………………………………………………………………………. 714
6.2 The Oceans …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 753

7. Observations: Extreme Weather ……………………………………………………………………………… 809

Key Findings …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 809
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 810

7.1 Temperature ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 811
7.2 Heat Waves …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 825
7.3 Fire ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 827
7.4 Drought ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 834
7.5 Floods …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 880
7.6 Precipitation ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 903
7.7 Storms ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 910
7.8 Hurricanes …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 945

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