Month: March 2017

March 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

March 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

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Guest Post By Walter Dnes

In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my March projections, as well as last month’s projections for February, to see how well they fared.

Data Set Projected Actual Delta
HadCRUT4 2017/02 +0.817 (incomplete data)
HadCRUT4 2017/03 +0.817 (incomplete data)
GISS 2017/02 +1.02 +1.10 +0.08
GISS 2017/03 +1.03
UAHv6 2017/02 +0.544 +0.348 -0.196
UAHv6 2017/03 +0.351
RSS 2017/02 +0.606 +0.440 -0.166
RSS 2017/03 +0.437
NCEI 2017/02 +0.9849 +0.9782 -0.0067
NCEI 2017/02 +0.9831

The Data Sources

The latest data can be obtained from the following sources

Miscellaneous Notes
At the time of posting 4 of the 5 monthly data sets were available through February 2017. HadCRUT4 is available through January 2017. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data runs 2 days behind real-time. Therefore, real daily data From February 28th through March 29th is used, and the 30th is assumed to have the same anomaly as the 29th.

The projections for the surface data sets (HadCRUT4, GISS, and NCEI) are derived from the previous 12 months of NCEP/NCAR anomalies compared to the same months’ anomalies for each of the 3 surface data sets. For each of the 3 data sets, the slope() value (“m”) and the intercept() value (“b”) are calculated. Using the current month’s NCEP/NCAR anomaly as “x”, the numbers are plugged into the high-school linear equation “y = mx + b” and “y” is the answer for the specific data set. The entire globe’s NCEP/NCAR data is used for HadCRUT, GISS, and NCEI.

For RSS and UAH, subsets of global data are used, to match the latitude coverage provided by the satellites. I had originally used the same linear extrapolation algorithm for the satellite data sets as for the surface sets, but the projections for RSS and UAH have been consistently too high the past few months. Given that the March NCEP/NCAR UAH and RSS subset anomalies are almost identical to February, but the linear extrapolations are noticeably higher, something had to change. I looked into the problem and changed the projection method for the satellite data sets.

The Problem
The next 2 graphs show recent UAH and RSS actual anomalies versus the respective NCEP/NCAR anomalies for the portions of the globe covered by each of the satellite data sets. RSS actual (green) anomaly tracked slightly above its NCEP/NCAR equivalant through November 2016 (2016.917). But from December 2016 (2017.000) onwards, it has been slightly below. Similarly, UAH actual anomaly tracked its NCEP/NCAR equivalant closely through November 2016, but fell and remained below it from December 2016 onwards. I’m not speculating why this has happened, but merely acknowledging the observed numbers.


The Response
Since the switchover in December, the actual satellite anomalies have paralleled their NCEP/NCAR subsets, but with a different offset than before. So I take the difference (current month minus previous month) in the NCEP/NCAR subset anomalies, multiply by the slope(), and add to the previous month’s anomaly. E.g. for the March 2017 UAH projection…

  1. subtract the February 2017 UAH subset NCEP/NCAR anomaly from the March number
  2. multiply the result of step 1 by the slope of Mar-2016-to-Feb-2017 UAH anomalies versus the NCEP/NCAR subset anomalies for the UAH satellite coverage area.
  3. add the result of step 2 to the observed February UAH anomaly, giving the March projected anomaly

The graph immediately below is a plot of recent NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies, versus 1994-2013 base, similar to Nick Stokes’ web page. The second graph is a monthly version, going back to 1997. The trendlines are as follows…

  • Black – The longest line with a negative slope in the daily graph goes back to early July, 2015, as noted in the graph legend. On the monthly graph, it’s August 2015. This is near the start of the El Nino, and nothing to write home about. Reaching back to 2005 or earlier would be a good start.
  • Green – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope around late 2004, early 2005. To even BEGIN to work on a “pause back to 2005”, the anomaly has to drop below the green line.
  • Pink – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope from mid-2001. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.
  • Red – The trendline back to a local minimum in the slope from late 1997. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.

NCEP/NCAR Daily Anomalies:

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NCEP/NCAR Monthly Anomalies:

http://ift.tt/2nJirw1

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March 31, 2017 at 01:00PM

BoM March rain Outlook triumph

BoM March rain Outlook triumph

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The March Outlook

March percent rain

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March 31, 2017 at 10:53AM

Animation proving link between SO2 reducing areas and warming

Animation proving link between SO2 reducing areas and warming

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I’ve put together this map to show how the areas with reducing SO2 emissions in the period 2001-11 (blue) are linked by the trade winds with warming hotspots as shown by the 2001-11 GISS map. This shows that virtually the … Continue reading

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March 31, 2017 at 10:09AM

The Shame of Chinese Coal

The Shame of Chinese Coal

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I note much discussion around a recent WUWT post entitled “China: USA is “Selfish” for Wanting to Burn Coal“. It featured the Chinese telling us that we are “selfish” to burn coal and that we should reduce our coal use, because carbon.

Now, in the way of conflicts of interests, I should disclose that I have indeed worked in the oil industry. I served as the Chief Financial Officer for the largest oil import and distribution company in the Solomon Islands … which is a very small market. Our gross sales were US$40 million per year, trivially tiny in the world of fossil fuels. We used to joke that we weren’t Big Oil, heck, we weren’t even Small Oil. We were Baby Oil …

However, there’s nothing like working in an industry to drive a man to understand it, root and branch. I quickly found out that one of the best sources of current information about the energy industry was Platts. In addition to reading their public announcements and analyses, we used to subscribe to their newsletter. From memory, it was about US$1,500 per year or something, and worth every dime. They put a lot of research into their info. Platts have a bureau in Singapore, which is the center of Asian energy dealings.

So it was no surprise to see Platt’s name on the following document:  

China’s coal-fired generation strong despite renewables push: Citi

Singapore (Platts)–31 Mar 2017 156 am EDT/556 GMT

China’s coal-fired power generation as a percentage of the total energy mix is on the rise for the second year, despite the push towards renewable capacity additions in the country, Citi analysts said Friday.

The share of thermal power in the generation mix declined to 73% in 2015 from 83% in 2011.

Thermal has since grown to 74% of the mix in 2016 and to 78% in January-February this year, the analysts said.

“Hydropower generation was down 5% year on year in January-February 2017 and that contributed to thermal power growing faster than overall power demand,” they said.

A 5% growth in China’s coal-fired power generation would mean an additional consumption of about 65 million mt of coal, with the size of the entire seaborne market at about 850 million mt, the analysts said.

China’s January-February total coal imports have surged 48.5% year on year to 42.61 million mt, according to customs data.

Nuclear and wind — which account for about 4.8% of the mix — and solar, which accounts for less than 1%, are continuing to grow at double-digit percentages, but they are “still a small proportion” of the overall electricity demand balance, the analysts said.

Short version? Chinese coal use is rising and there’s no end to that rise in sight.

chinese-haze-citySmog hangs over a construction site in Weifang city, Shandong province, Oct 16. 2015. Air quality went down in many parts of China since Oct 15 and most cities are shrouded by haze. [Photo/IC]

Now, everyone knows the law of supply and demand. Per the article quoted above, China imports on the order of a QUARTER-BILLION METRIC TONNES of coal per year. If there are more global customers for the coal, that immutable law says that with increasing demand, coal prices will go up.

So should we be surprised when China tries in every way it can to discourage the use of coal?

No surprise at all. Expected. About the only interesting thing is how they are trying to do it.

In Chinese culture, given the focus on the family and the state, being selfish is a bad thing. It means you’re not willing to sacrifice for your people, that you are a bad family member or an uncaring member of society.

In the US, however, being selfish is a mixed bag. Although public generosity is high in the US, you don’t get to be rich without a certain amount of selfishness. In addition, there is a political division—liberals would say that being selfish is a larger issue than would conservatives.

So I suspect that such an accusation is not a bad tactic for China, given that concern about CO2 is equally politically divided. Liberals seem more likely to both think CO2 is an issue and to also care whether the Chinese think they are selfish … which latter concern, I must confess, is not a major feature on my planet.

(I’m reminded of a friend in college. After three years studying Chinese, he quit the major. When I asked why, he said, “I finally realized that no matter how well I can pronounce it, almost nobody Chinese will give a damn what I say” … and the feeling is somewhat mutual. And rightly so, it’s the nature of economic nationalism and international competition. The Chinese are not acting in our best interests, regarding coal and many other things. Nor would I expect them to. But I digress …)

Sunshine today, I’ve been working in my shop, getting my bodyboard ready to paint. I surfed a lot at Frigates Passage in Fiji when I lived there, including on my sixtieth birthday.

frigates pass

On that memorable day I swore a big swear to my mates that I’d surf Frigates on my seventieth birthday … which was last month. I couldn’t make it then because the plan has since expanded to include Clan Eschenbach, meaning my gorgeous ex-fiancee, and daughter and son-in-law. So I’m headed southwest in a couple weeks to surf Frigates, more adventures to come.

Always more to write about, much of which I do at my own blog, Skating Under The Ice.  Come by and take a look, all are welcome.

w.

PS—When you comment PLEASE QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING so we can all understand your subject.

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March 31, 2017 at 09:41AM