SW WA rainfall the arm-waving Gov misinformation continues as BoM closes or neglects rainfall stations

Several subjects to be covered/touched on/updated in this important contested area flooded with Gov funded misinformation.
A – The usually reliable Dwellingup 9538 failed to record rain on 31March when radar shows ~50mm fell.
Long term readers here should know that over a decade ago I constructed my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series from three stations – Mundaring Weir 9031, Karnet 9011 and Dwellingup 9538. In recent years BoM has discontinued Mundaring Weir 9031(see C below) so I have replaced that with Mundaring 9030. I have been well aware that Karnet 9111 has been getting worse and may have to look for an alternative site (see B below). My last update of my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series is to year 2021 and I still have to do the work to update 2022.
2021 update 47 years Perth dams catchment May-Oct rain index 4Aug2022
Here is best link to my full 2021 chart.
B – The patchy and unreliable Karnet 9111 turned in an obviously gappy & incomplete 2022 total. Seemingly accepted by BoM.
Why Karnet 9111 should be so unreliable I fail to understand as it is near a State run prison where there would be no shortage of labour to reliably curate rainfall gear.
I might have to include the well curated Bickley 9240 into my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series to replace Karnet.
C – BoM has killed off in recent years several unreliable rain stations down the line of Perth dams – see previous blog
BoM chooses not to explain Perth dams faulty rainfall data 23Jul2018
D – All the above & below subjects mesh with my Muja blog where I expose the “barking mad” claim by ABC/BoM/ANU Academic that Muja Power Station 9738 rainfall was really as low as 124/127mm for calendar 2022.
ABC sucked in by obvious rainfall errors at Muja Power Station a BoM site 1Jan2023
E – The ever GreenLeft Our/ABC after Christmas 2021 published this arm-waving twaddle –
Why WA’s south-west is drying out at one of the worst rates in the world 28Dec21
And for your interest while on the subject of “arm-waving twaddle” – I see these glossed-up wild claims.
Guided by nature – Indigenous Australians use their deep spiritual connection to the land to track the seasons, but elders are warning of a “massive shift” in climate. 31Mar23
F – I have various blogs and www pages over more than a decade exposing the WA Gov and Water Corporation dodgy claims that rainfall decline has caused streamflow into dam catchments decline. In fact decades of neglect of scientific “control or thinning of excessive catchment bush” is the main cause of any runoff decline.
No water shortage forced seawater desal on Perth 27Feb2018
see link to – There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply 4Dec2007

via Errors in IPCC climate science


March 31, 2023 at 09:28PM

Saturday Open Thread

Saturday Open Thread

0 out of 10 based on 0 rating

via JoNova


March 31, 2023 at 09:21PM

Bad Weather Forecast

6:09 AM · Mar 31, 2023

via Real Climate Science


March 31, 2023 at 09:17PM

Southern Labrador coastal landscape dominated by fat polar bears in March

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

Recent reports out of southern Labrador highlight how common it is to find polar bears onshore at this time of year. The small coastal community of Black Tickle seems to take the prize for the highest number of incidents and sightings but Happy Valley-Goose Bay is the somewhat surprising contender. [see correction below] Photo below is from Black Tickle.

Since early March, polar bear sightings in Newfoundland and Labrador have been common. The bears, of course, have come south on the Labrador Sea pack ice looking for fat newborn harp seals, which are now so abundant in the region that nearly a year’s worth of food could probably be consumed in a week or so. It appears that already well-fed bears may look around for what else could be added to their menu or just need a break to digest between meals. Photos of some of the bears sighted are all in good or excellent condition, and few of the animals seem to be intent on causing real trouble for locals–a far cry from the bear that wandered off the ice into Wales, Alaska earlier this year and killed a young mother and her infant son.

According to a report today from VOCM News in Newfoundland and Labrador (30 March 2023), the Canadian Ranger who serves as the community ‘polar bear guard’ in Black Tickle has been kept busy this month, which is not unusual.

Jeffrey Keefe, a technician with NL Hydro, is usually focused on ensuring that the local diesel generating station is kept running, but he’s been occupied in recent weeks keeping an eye open for polar bears.

He tells VOCM News he’s counted at least 31 animals which have either passed through the community, or within 2 km of the town on the sea ice.

Keefe, who has been driving polar bears away from the community for the last 23 years, is not worried about the animals, but many people are not too fussy about them getting close.

One bear spent a night in the basement of one family’s house after ripping a piece of plywood off the window, and later startled another resident by pushing against the window glass so hard it broke.

Note how fat the bear is in the video below of Ranger Jeffrey Keefe doing his job:

Previously, Keefe said about the bears he dealt with in Black Tickle back in 2017:

“They look really healthy … they have been eating good, these ones have.”

Looks like this statement would be true this year as well.

Other incidents this year took place almost 300 km away, if I’ve done my homework right. Specialist teacher’s assistant Audrey Hudson, apparently works in Happy Valley-Goose Bay at the end of Lake Melville, far west of the coastal communities that butt up against the pack ice that is polar bear habitat. Turns out I was wrong on this location, see below.

Audrey shared some photos on twitter of two bears that have recently visited close enough to the school to photo through the windows (28th and 29th March).

Although she doesn’t reveal her exact location, Google tells me the phrase “The Big Land” Audrey uses in her tweet refers to Labrador, not the island of Newfoundland, as a story published by the National Post states. I followed a trail of online information on teaching staff and school locations in the region, which suggests Ms. Hudson works in one of several schools in Happy Valley-Goose Bay. However, Ms. Hudson responded to my twitter inquiry and tells me she works in Black Tickle!

However, Even still, seeing polar bears in Goose Bay would is actually not be so surprising, since ‘Lake Melville’ (see map above) is technically a broad fjord connected by a narrow arm to the Labrador Sea and ringed seals (favourite food of polar bears) use the ice on the fjord at this time of year to whelp their pups and mate. But not this time: all of the sightings Ms. Hudson reported on happened in Black Tickle.

The first looks to be a young bear in good condition:

Her follow-up is a magnificent adult male, also in good condition:

Sea ice conditions in the Labrador Sea

As of yesterday (29 March 2023), according to Canadian Ice Services. Black Tickle Island is southeast of Cartwright, which is a coastal community marked on the chart:

Two weeks ago, the ice was just as extensive. Ringed seals in this region prefer shorefast ice less than 2m thick. However, harp seals generally prefer thin first year mobile pack ice (light green) for whelping their pups and mating, and this year most of that ice was further south, off Newfoundland:

via Watts Up With That?


March 31, 2023 at 08:30PM