Ocean Surface Temperatures: How Low Will They Go?

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

We have seen lots of claims about the temperature records for 2016 and 2015 proving dangerous man made warming.  At least one senator stated that in a confirmation hearing.  Now that HadSST3 data is complete through February 2017, let’s see how obvious is the ocean’s governing of global average temperatures.

Ocean temperature measurements come from a global array of 3,500 Argo floats and other ocean sensors. Credits: Argo Program

The best context for understanding these last two years comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

• The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
• SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
• A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature the last two years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows the last two years of SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3, along with the first two months of 2017.

Note that higher temps in 2015 and 2016 are first of all due to a sharp rise in Tropical SST, beginning in March 2015, peaking in February 2016, and steadily declining back to its beginning level. Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere added two bumps on the shoulders of Tropical warming, with peaks in August of each year. Also, note that the global release of heat was not dramatic, due to the Southern Hemisphere offsetting the Northern one.

Finally, the oceans are starting 2017 only slightly lower than a year ago, but this year with much cooler Tropics.  Notice that both the Tropics and also the Northern Hemisphere continue to cool.  The Global average warmed slightly, pulled upward by the Southern Hemisphere which reaches its summer peak at this time.

March may repeat 2016 when NH bottomed and SH peaked, or maybe both will rise or both will drop.  In the latter case, perhaps we will see the long-awaited La Nina.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 18, 2017 at 10:20PM

The Paris Treaty is Dead

via Scottish Sceptic
http://ift.tt/1wv5Sjx

One of the great debates amongst sceptics these days is whether Donald Trump can unilaterally withdraw from the climate “treaty” … because without ratification it’s not binding on the next president. However, as always we “do it by the book” … Continue reading →

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March 18, 2017 at 10:10PM

Low Oil Prices Prove How Wrong Obama Was On Energy

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

With oil prices struggling to rebound after hitting a three-month low last week, Americans are getting yet another reminder of just how wrong President Barack Obama was about drilling.

“The American people aren’t stupid,” he said back in 2012 — when the price of oil was above $100 a barrel and gas was $3.50-plus a gallon at the pump. They know “we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices.”

Well, he was right about one thing: Americans aren’t stupid. They wisely ignored him and drilled anyway. Guess what? Supplies rose and drove down prices. They haven’t come back since.

Hug a fracker for that welcome turn of events: US oil output from shale has soared over the past decade, thanks to new fracking and horizontal-drilling technology that has lowered production costs and made shale-oil extraction economical.

(And blame Gov. Cuomo for banning New Yorkers from taking part in the fracking boom.)

The new reserves have disrupted the global oil market: While OPEC countries and Russia agreed last November to cut production by nearly 1.8 million barrels a day to run down inventory gluts, US output has grown: Drillers here have added oil rigs for the past eight straight weeks.

The US supplies have kept world crude prices low — oil has been bouncing around just above the $50-a-barrel mark; gas, just below $2.50 a gallon — despite the cuts in output by OPEC and Russia.

Indeed, those countries are now rethinking their production caps to hang on to their market share.

But whether it’s America, OPEC or Russia that keeps the black stuff flowing, crude and gas-pump prices don’t seem headed up much anytime soon. That’s a godsend for consumers, as well as businesses and workers.

No, there are no guarantees: If the global economy heats up and supplies can’t keep pace, prices will rise. But with all the new US drilling, America is now better poised to meet new demand and keep those prices in check.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 18, 2017 at 09:50PM

America’s Shale Gas Selling at Record Prices to Overseas Buyers

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

A year after Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Louisiana terminal shipped the first exports of U.S. natural gas from shale, cargoes from the facility are fetching higher prices than ever.

The export price of liquefied gas from Sabine Pass rose as high as $7.52 per million British thermal units in January, topping last year’s high of $6.21, according to an Energy Department report Friday. Fifteen tankers sailed from the terminal that month and in February, the most since commissioning began at the facility last year.

Abundant gas supplies from America’s shale basins have sailed from Sabine Pass to more than a dozen countries from Mexico to China, putting the U.S. on the path to becoming a net exporter of the fuel next year. Houston-based Cheniere swung to a profit for the first time since 2010 in the fourth quarter.

Sabine Pass has “ramped up faster than expected, so it seems like a pretty successful launch into commercial operation” that’s being reflected in the export volumes, Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at ship broker Poten & Partners in Houston, said by phone Friday. “The prices have been fairly strong. For Cheniere Marketing that’s been good to see.”

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 18, 2017 at 09:20PM