New Study: More Arctic Sea Ice Now Than For Nearly All Of The Last 10,000 Years

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)http://www.thegwpf.com

In a new paper (Stein et al., 2017), scientists find that Arctic sea ice retreat and advance is modulated by variations in solar activity. In addition, the sea ice cover during the last century has only slightly retreated from the extent reached during coldest centuries of the Little Ice Age (1600s to 1800s AD), which had the highest sea ice cover of the last 10,000 years and flirted with excursions into year-round sea ice.

The Medieval Warm Period sea ice record (~900 to 1200 AD) had the lowest coverage since the Roman era ~2,000 years ago.

Of note, the paper makes no reference to carbon dioxide or anthropogenic forcing as factors modulating Arctic sea ice.

Stein et al., 2017

The causes that are controlling the decrease in sea ice are still under discussion. In several studies changes in extent, thickness and drift of Arctic sea ice are related to changes in the overall atmospheric circulation patterns as reflected in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The NAO and AO are influencing changes of the relative position and strength of the two major surface-current systems of the Arctic Ocean.

The increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon, coinciding with major glacier advances on Franz Josef Land, Spitsbergen and Scandinavia.  The increase in sea ice may have resulted from the continuing cooling trend due to decreased solar insolation and reduced heat flow from the Pacific.

The increase in sea ice extent during the late Holocene seems to be a circum-Arctic phenomenon as PIP25-based sea ice records from the Fram Strait, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea  display a generally quite similar evolution, all coinciding with the decrease in solar radiation.

The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice and surface-water productivity are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation, whereas short-term centennial variability observed in the high-resolution middle Holocene record was possibly triggered by solar forcing.

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March 2, 2017 at 08:15PM

Poland Challenges EU’s Carbon Market Reform

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)http://www.thegwpf.com

Poland is challenging draft carbon market reforms agreed by most European Union governments this week, saying the deal is not binding because it did not have the full backing of the bloc’s 28 nations, the country’s environment ministry said yesterday (2 March).

Poland does not rule out taking the issue to the European Court of Justice to unravel the legislation once it is adopted, Environment Ministry spokesman Pawel Mucha told Reuters.

Poland was among nine countries who opposed a deal backed by 19 EU environment ministers on long-awaited reforms of the Emission Trading System (ETS), which is the EU’s flagship policy to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets.

The EU has been trying to reform the system because it has suffered from an excess supply of carbon permits that depressed prices.

But Poland fears the reforms to the so-called cap-and-trade system will prove too heavy a burden for its energy-intensive industrial plants and coal-fired power stations.

The EU’s efforts to tackle global warming have increasingly put Poland at odds with the rest of the 28-nation bloc, which is keen to maintain leadership in global climate diplomacy.

Poland’s Environment Ministry said it felt “cheated” by the compromise deal, saying it violated the right of each member state to shape its own energy mix. The ministry said in a statement that the draft reform proposal adopted by the EU members was “not binding”.

Warsaw is arguing that EU treaties say rules on a country’s choice between different energy sources can only be adopted with the unanimous consent of the bloc’s 28 nations.

Polish diplomats contested Tuesday’s (28 February) compromise deal on the grounds that the draft text should have been brought to a vote, insisting the nine member states made up a “blocking minority”.

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March 2, 2017 at 08:15PM

TECHNOCRACY RISING

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March 2, 2017 at 05:00PM

Reality Bites: ‘Green’ Dreamers Struggling to Spin Away South Australia’s Failed Wind Power Experiment

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*** It’s been barely 5 months since South Australia experienced a state wide blackout on 28 September, when a typically vigorous spring storm delivered wind speeds in excess of 90km/h, causing the majority of turbines operating at its 18 wind farms to automatically shutdown to avoid self-destruction. The ensuing collapse in wind power output overloaded […]

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March 2, 2017 at 04:31PM