Month: March 2017

Uncategorized 28 Mar 2017

Despite Trump Move on Climate Change, Utilities’ Shift From Coal Is Set to Continue

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Curbs on carbon emissions may be eased, but companies are sticking with plans to invest in power from gas, wind and solar

The Trump administration’s expected move to roll back President Obama’s signature climate-change policy may extend the life of some aging coal-fired power plants, but companies and energy experts say it is unlikely to reverse the U.S. utility industry’s shift to natural gas, solar and wind as leading sources of electricity.

President Donald Trump is expected Tuesday to sign an executive order that would begin to reverse the Clean Power Plan, which would have required utilities to reduce power-plant carbon-dioxide emissions to 32% below 2005 levels by 2030. The order also rolls back guidance from the Council on Environmental Quality on climate change and rescinds a temporary ban on new coal leases on federal lands, a senior White House official said Monday night.

While the action may give a reprieve to some coal-fired plants facing extinction, large utilities say they will continue long-term investments to generate more power from gas, wind and solar, which are being driven by economic as well as regulatory forces. The White House official said Monday that the order is part of the president’s promise to restore the coal sector, but the official acknowledged that merely repealing the regulations wouldn’t bring back jobs.

Cheap U.S. natural gas unlocked by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has prompted many companies to scrap older coal plants in favor of gas-fired plants, which require fewer workers to operate. Companies are also taking advantage of tax credits for renewable power to build out solar and wind farms, which are becoming more cost-competitive with fossil-fuel generation thanks to economies of scale and advances in technology.

Duke Energy Corp. says it plans to invest $11 billion in natural gas and renewable power generation over the next 10 years, as the company aims by 2026 to cut its greenhouse-gas emissions by 35% from 2005 levels.

That represents a long-term company strategy and isn’t likely to change, Duke Chief Executive Lynn Good said in a February interview. The utility’s power generating mix is now 34% coal and 28% natural gas, compared with 61% coal and 5% gas in 2005. By 2026, it estimates gas will be the dominant fuel, followed by coal, nuclear and renewable power.

“Because of the competitive price of natural gas and the declining price of renewables, continuing to drive carbon out makes sense for us,” said Ms. Good. “Administrations will change during the life of our business and our assets, and we’ll continue to move forward in a way that makes sense for our investors and our customers.”

Southern Co. plans to invest at least $1 billion a year over the next five years in new wind farms. It now uses natural gas to generate 47% of its power, with coal providing 31%, nuclear 15%, and hydropower, wind, solar and other renewable sources 7%.

“Going forward, we anticipate an increase in renewable generation capacity and declining utilization of coal,” said Terrell McCollum, a spokesman for the Atlanta-based utility.

U.S. utilities generated more electricity from natural gas than from coal last year. Power from coal plants fell to 3.4 million megawatt-hours a day in 2016 to supply 30% of U.S. generation, down from 33% in 2015, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Natural-gas plants supplied 3.8 million megawatt-hours daily, or 34% of total power supplies this past year, up from 33% the previous year.

Hydropower and other renewables generated 1.7 million megawatt-hours daily, or about 15% this past year, up from 13% in 2015. Nuclear plants contributed 20%, and petroleum and other sources produced the rest.

Without the Clean Power Plan, however, the Energy Department expects coal-fired generation from existing plants to rise and natural gas-fired generation to fall by 2020, followed by another reversal after 2030 when it anticipates gas will exceed coal again.

The extent of a coal recovery will depend largely on the price utilities pay for gas, which averaged about $3 a million British thermal units last year. The department predicts it will rise to more than $4.50 in 2020, and $5 in 2029.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 27, 2017 at 11:51PM

Uncategorized 28 Mar 2017

New Power Capacity For Iran & Pakistan

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

Two reports from PEI this week in juxtaposition:

Iran’s installed renewable power capacity is set to reach 700-850 MW within the country’s calendar year (which began on 21 March), the energy ministry announced this week.

The increase would more than double Iran’s current installed renewable capacity, which deputy energy minister Seyed Mohammad Sadeqzadeh put last month at around 340 MW.

According to the Mehr news agency, Sadeqzadeh said this week that the bulk of the expected capacity would come from wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms, which are set to provide 90 per cent of the total amount to be installed.

The new plants will be between 10 MW and 30 MW and will be built across the country, Sadeqzadeh said. Five waste-to-power plants are also under construction, for a total capacity of 9 MW.

http://ift.tt/2ocdNES

A ground-breaking ceremony took place on Wednesday at will be a 1,320 MW supercritical coal-fired power plant in the Hub district of Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

The plant has a capacity of providing electricity to about four million families after its completion in 2019, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
It is the second major project after Gwadar port in the restive province under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The project, which is one of the "priority projects" under the CPEC, is being constructed by the China Power International Holding Ltd and Hub Power Company Limited
Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency reported that the plant will have a capacity to provide electricity to about four million families after its completion in 2019. China has committed to building a number of energy projects in Pakistan to ease power crisis.

http://ift.tt/2nHtLsN

Iran

Iran are planning to add about 400MW of renewable capacity this year, doubling the current level.

Although this sounds impressive, it is actually distinctly less so, as such claims usually are.

If we assume a generous utilisation of 20% for the mix of wind and solar, this would generate 700GWh annually.

Iran’s total electricity output in 2015 was 281.9TWh, so the new renewable capacity will add just 0.2%.

Pakistan

In contrast, the new coal power plant in Pakistan would be capable of producing 9.25TWh a year, assuming 80% utilisation.

This will amount to 8% of Pakistan’s total generation.

They must be glad China is so keen on building some proper power plants for them, and not making them do with airy fairy wind and solar power.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT http://ift.tt/16C5B6P

March 27, 2017 at 11:00PM

Uncategorized 28 Mar 2017

Understanding Global temperatures X – 1970s Global cooling and 2000s Pause

via Scottish Sceptic
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In previous articles I explained how the 1970-2000 warming was very likely caused by pollution reduction measures: Understanding Global Temperature VIII – It was the greens wot warmed us!! Understanding Global Temperature ix the role ofCO2 Today prompted by some … Continue reading →

via Scottish Sceptic http://ift.tt/1wv5Sjx

March 27, 2017 at 10:56PM

Uncategorized 28 Mar 2017

Swiss National Science Foundation: ‘Weaker Sun Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree’

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earth’s climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future.

Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earth’s temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.

According to project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, this reduction in temperature is significant, even though it will do little to compensate for human-induced climate change. “We could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little. That might help us to deal with the consequences of climate change.” But this will be no more than borrowed time, warns Schmutz, since the next minimum will inevitably be followed by a maximum.

Strong fluctuations could explain past climate

At the end of March, the researchers working on the project will meet in Davos for a conference to discuss the final results. The project brought together various research institutions’ capabilities in terms of climate effect modelling. PMOD calculated what is known as “radiative forcing” taking account of particle as well as electromagnetic radiation, ETH Zurich worked out its further effects in the Earth’s atmosphere and the University of Bern investigated the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans.

The Swiss researchers assumed a greater fluctuation in the radiation striking the Earth than previous models had done. Schmutz is convinced that “this is the only way that we can understand the natural fluctuations in our climate over the last few millennia.” He says that other hypotheses, such as the effect of major volcanic eruptions, are less conclusive.

Exactly how the sun will behave over the next few years remains a matter of speculation, however, since appropriate data series have only been available for a few decades and they reveal no evidence of fluctuations during this time. “To that extent, our latest results are still a hypothesis,” says Schmutz, “and it remains difficult for solar physicists to predict the next cycle.” But since we have been observing a consistently strong phase since 1950, it is highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50 to 100 years’ time. It could be every bit as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold weather during the 17th century.

Important historical data

The research project also placed great importance on the historical perspective. The Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern compared data series on past solar activity with other specific climatic conditions. People have been recording the number of sunspots, which correlates well with solar activity levels, for some three centuries now. However, it is much more difficult to quantify exactly how cold it was on Earth back then. “We know that the winters during the last minimum were very cold, at least in northern Europe,” says Schmutz. The researchers still have a fair amount of work to do before they have a detailed understanding of the relationship between solar activity and the global climate both in the past and in the future.