BBC Peddle RHS Climate Lies
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By Paul Homewood
The Royal Horticultural Society has just published a 45 page report “Gardening in a Changing Climate”. I strongly suspect that most gardeners will get most value out of it by putting it in the compost bin!
It has been written by Dr Eleanor Webster, who is employed by the RHS as a climate scientist. Quite why they feel they should be wasting members fees on a climate scientist is beyond me.
The BBC report gives a feel for the rubbish it contains:
Artificial lawns, plants from arid countries and flower beds designed to cope with floods are among future features of UK gardens outlined in a major new report.
As the world warms and weather patterns shift, the study by the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS) concludes that British gardens will need to adapt.
Traditional designs with "immaculate, well-watered lawns" and "Edwardian" borders may be too hard to maintain if the weather becomes more volatile.
The report warns that climate change looks set to bring more extremes and more erratic weather with stronger storms, heavier downpours and more intense heatwaves potentially damaging plants and eroding soil.
But the authors also welcome the prospect of longer growing seasons and say there are new opportunities to use more varied plants in wider areas of the country.
They identify a sharp divide across the UK with climate change bringing contrasting prospects to different regions.
Dr Eleanor Webster, who coordinated the RHS report, told the BBC: "The key thing is that the south of England is going to be hotter and drier throughout the year with some heavy rain showers and then the north of England is going to be certainly milder but it is also going to be wetter in the summer and in the winter.
"The south of England is going to mainly be about water conservation and the north of England is going to be about managing a wet and warm environment."
The report points to the most recent decade being 0.9C warmer than the period 1961-1990 and to an increase in rainfall over Scotland and the north of England over the past century.
Before we look at the detail, there are two fundamental reasons why this study belongs in the bin:
1) British climate is notoriously volatile, and this volatility on a year to year, month to month, and even day to day basis drowns out any tiny climatic signal that there may be.
Indeed, there is no such thing as a “normal” or “average” climate in Britain.
Gardens have survived decades of this “weather”, and certainly won’t be inconvenienced any climate change.
This can easily be seen in the annual temperature and rainfall records for England:
2) Gardeners won’t be in the least bit interested in what their descendants might be growing in 50 or 100 years time. So why waste money on this report now?
Let’s now look at some of the claims made in the study. It is worth pointing out that, although it talks of future projections, the report is clear that these things are already occurring.
1) The report warns that climate change looks set to bring more extremes and more erratic weather with stronger storms, heavier downpours
We are back to the “extreme rainfall” myth, so it is time to demolish it once and for all.
Below is an analysis of the wettest months in England since 1910. Contrary to Met Office spin, these were much more common in the past, though we again see the comparative dearth in the 1970s and 80s.
The wettest month of all was December 1914.
2) The report warns that climate change looks set to bring more intense heatwaves.
To which the answer is Cobblers.
3) The south of England is going to be hotter and drier throughout the year
The Met Office divides England into two regions.
According to their data, there has been no significant change in day time temperatures in the south, since 1990. There is no evidence whatsoever that temperatures will rise in coming decades.
Since 1910, annual rainfall has been notable for its volatility.
The wettest year was 1960, and the driest in 1921.
Again, there is absolutely no evidence that the south will become drier.
4) The north of England is going to be certainly milder but it is also going to be wetter in the summer and in the winter.
As with the south, temperatures show no signs of rising.
As for rainfall, apart from 2012, which was clearly an outlier, annual rainfall in recent years has not been unusual, and is within the bounds of normal variability.
5) The scenario for East Anglia envisages an average temperature 5C warmer than now. Lawns will be replaced by synthetic grass.
Downpipes will channel the limited summer rain to underground tanks. Garden centres will precondition plants to become used to drought. And shade will come from almond, peach and olive trees.
East Anglia tends to be the driest corner of the country, and climate alarmists often paint a picture of it turning into a drought ridden dustbowl.
In reality, rainfall patterns there have not changed since 1910.
Unsurprisingly the BBC give the report top billing, with David Shukman calling it a major new report.
He uncritically lists its findings, apparently under the misapprehension that it is a serious study, and concludes that what we think of as a classic British garden will look very different in the decades ahead.
I only wish I could say the same about the BBC!
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April 30, 2017 at 06:39AM
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