Month: April 2017

Paris Agreement: Remember Enron to Rio to Kyoto

Paris Agreement: Remember Enron to Rio to Kyoto

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“I am writing to urge you to attend the upcoming United Nations Conference on Environment and Development [‘Earth Summit’] scheduled for early June in Brazil and to support the concept of establishing a reasonable, non-binding, stabilization level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.”

– Ken Lay [CEO, Enron Corp.] to George H. W. Bush, Letter of April 3, 1992.

“The United States fully intends to be the world’s preeminent leader in protecting the global environment. Environmental protection makes growth sustainable…. [This] recognition … by leaders from around the world is the central accomplishment of this important [United Nations] Rio Conference.”

– George H. W. Bush, “News Conference in Rio de Janeiro, June 13, 1992.

“[Enron was] the company most responsible for sparking off the greenhouse civil war in the hydrocarbon business.”

– Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War (London: Penguin Books, 1999), p. 204.

As the Trump Administration debates whether or not to have the US stay in the Paris Agreement–a 195-nation accord setting out goals to ration carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions over the next several decades–it is relevant to trace back the history of the international climate-change movement.

Historians will note it began with the mid-1992 ‘Earth Summit” in Rio de Janero, where George H. W. Bush signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty. The Senate unanimously ratified on the basis that the greenhouse-gas (GHG) reduction goals were voluntary, not mandatory.

The issue was now joined, with tens of thousands of intellectuals, campaigners, and government representatives working on the next steps to override market choices with edicts. With the United Nations led the way, small beginnings would only grow into one-world government strategies to mandate.

The Rio convention led to the highly controversial and failed Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and to the Paris Accord, which took effect last year.

Remember Enron

Rio to Kyoto to Paris. That is the official history of what Al Gore called the “central organizing principle for civilization” with government leading mankind to global sustainability, defined in large part by climate stabilization.

But this 25-year chronology should take one more step back. It involves a close friendship that might have tipped the scales to get President Bush to commit the US to the United Nations climate process.

Background: Ken Lay’s Enron set out in 1990 to become the world’s first natural gas major; the most innovative and reliable provider of clean energy worldwide for a better environment. The enemy to natural gas was coal, and Lay worked not only to remove the artificial advantages of coal over natural gas (Fuel Use Act of 1978; incremental pricing rate design, etc.). He worked to reverse the tilt in favor of gas.

Before Lay and Enron were done, seven profit centers were created around the climate change issue, or more specifically, pricing carbon dioxide (CO2). And when the Kyoto Protocol was signed in December 1997, a euphoric Enron lobbyist wrote back home: “This agreement will be good for Enron stock!!).

Little wonder that Enron was identified as “the company most responsible for sparking off the greenhouse civil war in the hydrocarbon business.”

The Lay-to-Bush Letter

In April 1992, a few months ahead of the scheduled Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Enron’s chairman wrote a three-page, carefully orchestrated letter to George H. W. Bush. Here are some key excepts from Lay’s letter (which was cc’d to two pro-Summit Bush advisors Clayton Yeutter and C. Boyden Gray):

Dear Mr. President:

I am writing to urge you to attend the upcoming United Nations Conference on Environment and Development scheduled for early June in Brazil and to support the concept of establishing a reasonable, non-binding, stabilization level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.

This stabilization level should serve as a useful public policy guide, not a policy mandate. Moreover, I believe a market-based policy approach is the most cost effective and environmentally beneficial method to achieve greenhouse gas stabilization.

The demagoguery on both sides of this issue has been extraordinarily fierce. Frankly, I do not believe the oceans will boil in a few years if we don’t address greenhouse gas emissions, but I also do not believe the U.S. will suffer from economic ruin if prudent steps are taken to reduce CO2 emissions in order to protect the global environment. In fact, if pursued through market-based policies, a reduction in greenhouse gases should result in a cleaner environment, cheaper electricity, and more American jobs.

Among other industries, I am convinced that America’s hard-pressed domestic natural gas industry would benefit substantially from a market-based approach to reducing CO2 emissions. Natural gas is our cleanest fossil fuel and through its increased use in electric power generation could play a major role in reducing CO2 emissions and delivering lower electricity prices to consumers….

In summary, I urge you to provide leadership on this important global environmental issue. Not only will many U.S. industries benefit from measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the natural gas industry, but with the appropriate market-based policies, the measures will result in a cleaner environment, cheaper electricity, more American jobs, and a reduced trade deficit.

Sincerely,

Ken

Bush went and spoke. Although environmental pressure groups wanted more, the president gave the global-climate negotiations a beachhead. “The United States fully intends to be the world’s preeminent leader in protecting the global environment,” he stated. “Environmental protection makes growth sustainable [as recognized] … by leaders from around the world [at] … this important Rio Conference.”

It all just might have begun with Ken Lay and Enron Corp.

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April 17, 2017 at 03:06AM

L A Times article deceptively hides 750 million metric tons of U.S. Greenhouse Gas emission reductions

L A Times article deceptively hides 750 million metric tons of U.S. Greenhouse Gas emission reductions

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Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

An April 16, 2017 L A Times article entitled “Climate goal in peril” presents a graph which portrays US greenhouse gas emission reductions as falling short of Obama’s voluntary and unenforceable 2015 Paris agreement pledge.

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The L A Times article graph very selectively presents US greenhouse gas emissions data for years 2011 through 2015 along with a projection for year 2025 versus Obama’s Paris agreement voluntary goal for that year.

The graph also shows the minimal role (5%) that California Governor Brown’s massively costly and bureaucratically intrusive (imposed on tens of millions of California citizens) SB 32 greenhouse gas reduction targets play in Obama’s voluntary pledge.

What the Times article carefully conceals from public view is EPA data (http://ift.tt/2pq9461) showing that the US has already reduced its greenhouse gas emissions from peak year 2007 levels through 2015 by 763 million metric tons per year to emission levels below those last recorded in 1994.

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The newly released 2017 EIA AEO report (http://ift.tt/2pJgMog/) updates US CO2 emissions through year 2016 and shows emissions declining from 2015 levels as well as continuing to decline from peak year 2007 levels with forecasts of stable CO2 emissions through year 2030 without Obama’s EPA CCP “war on coal” regulations ever being in place.

The 2017 EIA AEO report shows year 2016 US CO2 and future emissions are being achieved as a consequence of the increased use of energy market available low cost natural gas which is driving down the use of coal fuel with the further benefit of lowering CO2 emissions.

Thus free energy market forces provided by fracking of natural gas are driving and controlling the reduction and future stable CO2 emission levels of the U.S. without government imposing unnecessary, costly and bureaucratically burdensome regulations on the public.

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In year 2030 US CO2 emissions are forecast by EIA to be 5,210 million metric tons (without Obama’s EPA CCP) which is a reduction of 790 million metric tons and over 14% below peak year 2007 CO2 levels.

During this same period between 2007 and 2030 while the US is reducing CO2 emissions by nearly 800 million metric tons per year EIA IEO 2011 and 2016 report data shows the world’s developing nations increasing CO2 emissions by over 9,900 million metric tons per year with China and India accounting for more than 5,700 million metric tons per year of the developing nations total increase.

The massive increased CO2 emissions of the developing nations including China and India are completely acceptable under Obama’s 2015 Paris agreement.

The L A Times article ignores the huge impact on reducing US CO2 emissions brought about by the increased energy market use of natural gas, deceptively hides from view nearly 800 million metric tons of US CO2 emission reductions between 2007 and 2030 and completely fails to address the nearly 10,000 million metric tons of increased CO2 emissions from the developing nations which occur during this period that are permitted under Obama’s 2015 Paris agreement.

Additionally the Times article fails to address the flawed and failed  climate models which are at the heart of claims by climate alarmists demanding that the world undertake massively costly multi-trillion dollar efforts to reduce future CO2 emissions based on projections from these scientifically troubled and inadequate models.

In testimony provided by Dr. John Christy (http://ift.tt/2oAg3W2) to the U.S. House Committee on Science on March 29, 2017 Dr. Christy presented results showing how badly climate models performed in failing to project results of global temperatures compared to actual measured  temperatures.

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Dr. Christy presented analysis showing how grossly exaggerated the climate models results were compared to measured global temperatures and his analysis concluded that the theory reflected in these models fails tests against observations with a confidence level of greater than 99%.

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He further concludes that based on these tests these models are inappropriate for use in establishing “something truthful about the recent past or the future” about real world climate.

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This recent L A Times article is just a continuation of the Times decades long campaign of climate alarmism built upon conjecture and speculation along with heavy use of tactics of deception and deceit in failing to address the major flaws and failures of climate alarmist claims.

The fact that even as long ago as the 2001 3rd Assessment Report the UN IPCC acknowledged that “In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

This extraordinary shortcoming should have been addressed openly by the L A Times but was ignored and concealed. Instead the L A Times and other climate alarmists invented the political contrivance of “consensus” to try and hide from public view the inability of climate models to adequately address global climate issues.

The state of climate models is so inadequate and inept that efforts by climate alarmists to impose upon mankind regulatory mandates on global greenhouse gas emission targets costing trillion of dollars based on projections from such models is completely absurd and should be summarily rejected.

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April 17, 2017 at 02:42AM

Climate “Science” Temperature Reconstructions are not reproducible outside the “Peer Review” community

mwp-hockey-warming_graph

One of the most Orwellian and suspect foundations of the AGW Theory is the temperature reconstruction on which it depends. The original IPCC Report in 1990 used the bottom chart as its temperature reconstruction. The chart accurately identified the well documented Medieval Warming period and Little Ice Age. The problem is, the original chart used by the IPCC did not support the narrative that CO2 was causing global warming. A campaign was then started to rewrite history to make a more convincing argument to convict CO2 and eliminate the inconvenient Medieval Warming period. The IPCC ultimately replaced the problematic chart with the problem ridden and sharply criticized and widely debunked “Hockey Stick” Chart.

  1.  The “Hockey Stick” is not reproducible due to its reliance upon unconventional researcher independent/manufactured statistical techniques such as “Mike’s Nature Trick…to Hide the Decline.”
  2. The Hockey Stick and other following temperature reconstructions include proxies with extremely large errors such at tree rings, coral and even ice cores.
  3. Even though thermometer data was available, and in fact used by NASA and NOAA in their global temperature reconstructions, Michael Mann did not include instrumental data until 1902. Its addition dramatically altered the trend of the chart. Proxy data was included unto 1980, and once discontinued the trend of the chart was dramatically altered again.
  4. The Hockey Stick shows a full 1.1 degree Celsius increase between 1900 and its publication in 1999. NASA’s global temperature chart shows an increase of about one half that value at 0.6 degree Celsius.
  5. The longest continual thermometer record spanning over 350 years shows no warming until a suspicious rapid increase starting in 1980. Neatly 100% of the warming in the 350 year record has occured since 1980, which is completely inconsistent with the AGW Theory and all other temperature reconstructions.

Coal’s Colossal Comeback

Coal’s Colossal Comeback

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Buried in an otherwise humdrum jobs report for March was the jaw-dropping pronouncement by the Labor Department that mining jobs in America were up by 11,000 in March. Since the low point in October 2016 and following years of painful layoffs in the mining industry, the mining sector has added 35,000 jobs. What a turnaround. […]

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April 17, 2017 at 01:31AM