Despite NOAA denial, growing number of new studies confirm global warming hiatus

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Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

The reality of a global temperature ‘standstill’ was accepted as fact by fervent warmist James Hansen in a paper over four years ago, but is still controversial to some people.
H/T GWPF

Despite widespread denial among climate activists, a growing number of scientific research papers in recent months have confirmed the global warming hiatus, trying to explain its possible reasons (for the latest studies see GWPF links here).  

The latest study claims that the Southern Ocean played a critical role in the global warming slowdown.

The post-2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration
Geophysical Research Letters, 27 March 2017

Abstract: The warming rate of global-mean surface temperature slowed down during 1998-2012. Previous studies pointed out role of increasing ocean heat uptake during this global warming slowdown, but its mechanism remains under discussion. Our numerical simulations, in which wind stress anomaly in the equatorial Pacific is imposed from reanalysis data, suggest sub-surface warming in the equatorial Pacific took place during initial phase of the global warming slowdown (1998–2002), as previously reported. It is newly clarified that the Ekman transport from tropics to subtropics is enhanced during the later phase of the slowdown (after 2002) and enhanced subtropical Ekman downwelling causes accelerated heat storage below depth of 700 m in the subtropical Southern Ocean, leading to the post-2002 global warming slowdown. Observational data of ocean temperature also support this scenario. This study provides clear evidence that deeper parts of the Southern Ocean play a critical role in the past-2002 warming slowdown.

Source: Despite NOAA Denial, Growing Number Of New Studies Confirm Global Warming Hiatus | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

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April 7, 2017 at 09:24PM

Despite Denial, Growing Number Of New Studies Confirm Global Warming Hiatus

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Despite widespread denial among climate activists, a growing number of scientific research has confirmed the global warming hiatus, trying to explain its possible reasons (for the latest studies see here, here and here).  The latest study claims that the Southern Ocean played a critical role in the global warming slowdown.

The post-2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration

Geophysical Research Letters, 27 March 2017

Abstract: The warming rate of global-mean surface temperature slowed down during 1998-2012. Previous studies pointed out role of increasing ocean heat uptake during this global warming slowdown, but its mechanism remains under discussion. Our numerical simulations, in which wind stress anomaly in the equatorial Pacific is imposed from reanalysis data, suggest sub-surface warming in the equatorial Pacific took place during initial phase of the global warming slowdown (1998–2002), as previously reported. It is newly clarified that the Ekman transport from tropics to subtropics is enhanced during the later phase of the slowdown (after 2002) and enhanced subtropical Ekman downwelling causes accelerated heat storage below depth of 700 m in the subtropical Southern Ocean, leading to the post-2002 global warming slowdown. Observational data of ocean temperature also support this scenario. This study provides clear evidence that deeper parts of the Southern Ocean play a critical role in the past-2002 warming slowdown.

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

April 7, 2017 at 08:35PM

Shale Versus The World

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

The outlook for the American shale industry looks strong, given today’s prices.

That chart above tells you all you need to know about why OPEC and eleven other petrostates elected to collectively restrain their production last November. That strategy helped push oil prices up between $5 and $10 per barrel, but it hasn’t yet erased the global glut of crude, which means most oil suppliers are still struggling to stay in the black.

A breakeven oil price is the price a given supplier require to turn a profit or, if said supplier is a petrostate like Saudi Arabia or Russia, the price needed to balance the national budget. Even after the slight price rebound over the past four months, Riyadh and Moscow are still far away from erasing their oil-related budget deficits, while the picture looks downright hopeless for Caracas (though that’s not a new feeling for Venezuela these days).

But perhaps even more interesting than these petrostate woes are those two breakeven prices near the bottom of the chart. The lowest, at just $35 per barrel, is a rough estimate of the breakeven price needed for U.S. shale wells currently in operation. There’s little concern in today’s market environment that shale firms might not be able to profitably drill. Shale wells deplete much more quickly than conventional oil projects, so the more relevant metric is the breakeven price for new shale wells, which is somewhere in the region of $50 per barrel. Even with new wells, the outlook for the American shale industry looks strong, given today’s prices.

We should note that shale projects can vary considerably between and even within formations, and that these two U.S. breakeven prices—for new and existing shale wells—are only approximations. That said, the gap between America’s breakeven levels and those of the collected petrostates tells the story of today’s fight for a share of the oil market. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia can’t afford to continue on with prices at their current level, but their only lever to alter the price is to constrain their own supply.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

April 7, 2017 at 08:35PM

Australia’s PM Fiddles While Rome Burns: Keeping Federal RET a Recipe for a National Energy Disaster

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*** ‘inertia’: noun a tendency to do nothing or to remain unchanged; “the bureaucratic inertia of the various tiers of government” synonyms: inactivity, inaction, inactiveness, inertness, passivity, apathy, accidie, malaise, stagnation, dullness, enervation, sluggishness, lethargy, languor, languidness, listlessness, torpor, torpidity, idleness, indolence, laziness, sloth, slothfulness. If STT was called upon to provide a single word […]

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April 7, 2017 at 07:30PM