Month: April 2017

House tells NOAA in new bill – focus on weather, not climate research

House tells NOAA in new bill – focus on weather, not climate research

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WASHINGTON- The U.S House of Representatives today unanimously approved the Senate amendment to H.R. 353, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, introduced by Science, Space, and Technology Committee Vice Chair Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). This legislation directs the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to prioritize its research to improve weather data, modelling, computing, forecasting, and warnings.

Vice Chairman Lucas: “When a major storm or tornado is quickly approaching your community, every additional minute of preparation time counts. This legislation strengthens our country’s commitment to severe weather forecasting and ensures NOAA has access to the best weather data. I am proud the bill also includes a dedicated Tornado Warning Improvement Program that will help develop detection and notification systems.

“The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act is a major step toward more accurate and timely weather predictions, and I am eager to see these life-saving policies signed into law soon.”

Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Texas): “Today we took a major step to transform our nation’s weather forecasting.  The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act will enable new weather research, models, and technologies to better protect lives and property. With this bipartisan effort, we will improve forecasting by looking to the private sector for new technologies and weather solutions. This bill gives NOAA a clear vision and allows them the flexibility to buy new, affordable, and potentially better sources of data. With more and better options, we can finally make needed improvements to our weather forecasting capabilities.  I look forward to the president signing this critical legislation so that we can make our weather industry great again.”

Background

This legislation is the product of a bipartisan effort.  It directs the NOAA administrator to focus resources and effort to:

  • Prioritize NOAA research on next generation weather data, modeling, and computing;
  • Emphasize developing much more accurate forecasts and longer warning times for high impact weather events;
  • Support proactive technology transfer of weather research into operations to protect lives and property;
  • Create focused programs to extend warning lead times and improve forecasts for tornadoes and hurricanes specifically;
  • Develop a plan to utilize observing system simulation experiments and innovative technology to regain U.S. superiority in weather modeling and forecasts;
  • Employ new commercial data options and private sector weather solutions; and
  • Enhance coordination among various federal government weather stakeholders.

The legislation also authorizes and extends a NOAA pilot program already under way thanks to a partnership between the House Science and the House Appropriations Committees. Under this pilot program, NOAA has already issued two contracts to procure commercial satellite weather data. This pilot program could bring about a paradigm shift in how NOAA makes decisions about future procurement of critical weather data and systems.


Forecasters have seen for several years now that the European ECMWF forecast model has routinely outperformed U.S. Forecast models. For example, the ECMWF model correctly projected Hurricane Sandy’s left turn into the New Jersey coast about a week in advance, whereas the US based GFS model didn’t project that path change until the storm was much closer to the East Coast.

“What the European modeling community is doing is just amazing,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell, told Ars. “This is the golden age of weather forecasters. It’s an absolute wonder of computer modeling technology.” source

Part of the problem is that NOAA has put too much funding priority on climate forecast models, that’s about to change, dramatically, since climate models aren’t verifiable until years later, and offer no short term operational usefulness to the United States economy or safety.

“This landmark legislation will save lives and property while providing business leaders with critical intelligence,” said Antonio J. Busalacchi, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). “Today’s bipartisan vote underscores the enduring value of scientific research to our nation.”

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The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act is the first major weather legislation since the early 1990s. It calls for more research into subseasonal to seasonal prediction, a priority for business and community leaders who need more reliable predictions of weather patterns weeks to months in advance. The bill also will strengthen short-term weather forecasts and smooth the way for research findings to be adopted by forecasters and commercial weather companies.

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April 4, 2017 at 10:08AM

Intolerant Democrats Ask Teachers To Destroy Books Written By ‘Climate Deniers’

Intolerant Democrats Ask Teachers To Destroy Books Written By ‘Climate Deniers’

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By Andrew Follett

Three senior House Democrats asked U.S. teachers Monday to destroy a book written by climate scientists challenging the environmentalist view of global warming.

The Democrats were responding to a campaign by the conservative Heartland Institute copies of the 2015 book, “Why Climate Scientists Disagree About Global Warming” to about 200,000 science teachers. Democratic Reps. Bobby Scott of the Committee on Education, Raúl M. Grijalva of the Committee on Natural Resources, and Eddie Bernice Johnson of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology all issued a statement telling teachers to trash the book.

“Public school classrooms are no place for anti-science propaganda, and I encourage every teacher to toss these materials in the recycling bin,” Scott said. “If the Heartland Institute and other climate deniers want to push a false agenda on global warming, our nation’s schools are an inappropriate place to drive that agenda.”

The book’s three authors all hold doctorates and taught climate or related science at the university level. The book was written by former Arizona State University climatologist Dr. Craig D. Idso, James Cook University marine geology and paleontology professor Robert M. Carter, and University of Virginia environmental scientist Dr. Fred Singer.

Grijalv accused the scientists of “lying to children about the world we live in to further corporate polluter profits” and said that doing so was “cruel.” Johnson stated that the scientists had sent “scientifically inaccurate materials on climate change to public school teachers across the country” at the behest of ominous right wing donors and the Charles and David Koch brothers.

The best way to get adults to act like environmentalists is by brainwashing their children, according to research published by Oregon State University. Talking to kids about global warming caused their parents to use less energy and act more like environmentalists. The research was run on was run on 30 Girl Scout troops in northern California and had a “lasting impact on family energy consumption” for at least eight months after the end of the program.

Based on the study’s success, the researchers are now disseminating the curriculum to Girl Scout leaders around the country and attempting to adapt it to other groups of kids, including schools and youth-focused organizations such as 4-H with the help of other universities, such as Stanford. The research was financially supported by government grants.

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April 4, 2017 at 09:50AM

Vatican Urges President Trump to Reconsider Climate Policies

Vatican Urges President Trump to Reconsider Climate Policies

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President Trump (White House Portrait). Cardinal Peter Turkson.

President Trump (Public Domain, White House Portrait). Cardinal Peter Turkson. By HaiduculOwn work, CC BY 3.0, Link

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Vatican climate spokesman Cardinal Peter Turkson has just warned President Trump that if he doesn’t reverse his position on Climate Change, the USA risks losing “climate leadership” to China.

Vatican says Trump risks losing climate change leadership to China

By Philip Pullella | ROME

The Vatican urged U.S. President Donald Trump to listen to “dissenting voices” and reconsider his position on climate change

Pope Francis has made defense of the environment a key plank of his papacy, strongly backing scientific opinion that global warming is caused mostly by human activity.

“This is a challenge for us,” said Cardinal Peter Turkson, the pope’s point man for the environmental, immigration and development, when asked about Trump’s executive order dismantling Obama-era climate change regulations and his immigration policies.

“Fortunately, in the United States, there are dissenting voices, people who are against Trump’s positions,” said Turkson, who is from Ghana and was one of the driving forces behind the pope’s 2015 encyclical letter on environmental protection.

“This, for us, is a sign that little by little, other positions and political voices will emerge and so we hope that Trump himself will reconsider some of his decisions,” Turkson told reporters at a breakfast meeting.

China, which had fought attempts by foreign governments to limit carbon emissions in the past, has become a strong proponent of efforts to halt global warming.

“While Trump is moving in the opposite direction, there is another great power in the world, China, which is showing different signs, as if America is creating a vacuum that China is filling,” Turkson said.

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Frankly it is obscene for the Vatican to promote China in this way. One of those “different signs” China has been showing lately is a renewal of its brutal crackdown on Chinese Christians. The crackdown has included the large scale demolition of Christian icons, and the arrest of at least one Vatican appointed priest, coadjutor bishop of Wenzhou, Msgr. Peter Shao Zhumin, while he was helping to prepare the funeral of his predecessor.

If Vatican climate spokesman Cardinal Peter Turkson is somehow not aware of these outrages, perhaps he has also not received the latest memo about Chinese climate leadership.

China has just insisted they don’t want “climate leadership”, presumably because the Chinese understand that “leadership” is greenspeak for “pay the bills”.

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April 4, 2017 at 09:30AM

March Air and Sea Temps

March Air and Sea Temps

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The Pause that Refreshes!

The recent El Nino is cooling down as shown clearly in both sea surface temperatures and lower troposphere air temperatures. The two relevant data sets are UAH v.6 and HadSSTv3.1 and now provide averages for the month of March 2017.

The cooling pattern continues in the tropical seas while ocean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are  flat.  Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans appear to be peaking and pulled the Global SST up a bit, but both are slightly below last March.

Air temperatures in the lower troposphere tell much the same story.  The greater volatility of air temperatures is evident, and we also see that the tropics (20N to 20S) and the NH (0 to 90N) are more closely aligned than are SSTs.  The downward trajectory is clear after  an upward blip in the NH in February.

Enjoy the pause in warmer temperatures while we watch to see how cool it will get.

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April 4, 2017 at 08:39AM