Theresa Wants To Lead The Fight Against Climate Change–But Won’t Tell Us How!

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

The Tory manifesto also contains the above statement.

On the face of it, if we have got half way in 27 years, it should not be hard to get the rest of the way in the next 33. But, unfortunately, it is not quite as simple as that!

GHG emissions last year were 460 MtCO2e, down from 797 MtCO2e in 1990:

http://ift.tt/2nsrYW2

The 2050 target is 80% below 1990, that is 159 MtCO2e. We therefore need to reduce current emissions by 65% to meet this figure.

Moreover, the low lying fruit has already been picked.

In 1990, coal generation accounted for 68% of total power, with virtually no CCGT at all. Long before the Climate Change Act the dash for gas in the 1990s, built upon cheap North Sea gas, quickly began to supplant coal (and oil as well).

Last year, gas accounted for 42%, with coal down to 9%. This switch has been responsible for a good chunk of reduced emissions. Clearly, with coal nearly off the scene, there is little scope for such savings in future.

Secondly, energy consumption by industry has plummeted by 33% since 2000. Much of this must be due to offshoring. BEIS optimistically assume that energy demand from industry will remain pretty much stable in coming years !

Needless to say, the Tory manifesto does not give an inkling as to how we are supposed to eliminate most of our emissions in the next 33 years.