Month: May 2017

Uncategorized 20 May 2017

Colder Than Normal Eastern Pacific Ocean Temps Lower El Niño Bias

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

A number of forecast models have reduced their El Niño bias for the spring. This is primarily due to colder than normal band of subsurface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean remaining a similar size or even growing in recent months, contrary to the normal El Niño trend.

source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

El Niño refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. El Niño events are often accompanied by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Pacific, and to the north of Australia.

Typically, the equatorial trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean.

During the El Niño climate phenomenon the prevailing trade winds tend to weaken, or even reverse direction. These changes set up a feedback loop between the atmosphere and the ocean that boosts El Niño conditions.

In Australia, El Niño conditions are generally, but not necessarily, associated with below average rainfall, particularly over the eastern states.

Since 1900 there have been 27 recorded El Niño events. Two thirds of these have resulted in significant moisture stress across some or all of the winter cropping regions of the continent.

In the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the tropical Pacific region is in neutral territory.

However, there has been a warming trend across the tropical Pacific Ocean since the start of 2017 and they are saying that there is still a 50 per cent chance that El Niño will develop in the second half of this year.

Another key indicator is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas (or poles, hence a dipole) – a western pole in the Arabian Sea (western Indian Ocean) and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean, south of Indonesia.

Four out of six climate models currently suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere winter. In years when a positive IOD coincides with El Niño the pattern of below average rainfall extends further west than it typically would under El Niño alone.

In recent weeks a number of the long range forecast models have reduced their El Niño bias for the spring. This is primarily due to colder than normal band of subsurface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean remaining a similar size or even growing in recent months, contrary to the normal El Niño trend.

In April the US model was forecasting a steady increase in the development of El Niño throughout the southern hemisphere spring. By early May their confidence in this forecast had actually reduced, with the mean prediction now below El Niño levels throughout our spring.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 19, 2017 at 07:52PM

Uncategorized 20 May 2017

Industrial Scale Battery Storage of Wind & Solar Would Cause Surge in CO2 Emissions

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Californian carpet-bagger, Elon Musk has been threatening South Australia with a plan to scoop up at least $150 million of the $550 million its hapless Labor government is about to squander on non-fixes for its self-inflicted wind power disaster. So no time like the present to reflect on just how ‘green’ is SA’s plan to … Continue reading Industrial Scale Battery Storage of Wind & Solar Would Cause Surge in CO2 Emissions

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May 19, 2017 at 07:30PM

Uncategorized 20 May 2017

Shale Isn’t OPEC’s Only Problem

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

A wave of new petroleum production from countries like Canada and Brazil is adding a new problem for OPEC nations who until now had been primarily preoccupied with U.S. output.

When OPEC meets in Vienna next week to discuss an extension of the production cut agreement it brokered with eleven other non-cartel petrostates, America’s shale producers won’t be the only suppliers on its mind: a number of other non-OPEC nations are also notching production increases that, taken together, are counterbalancing the petrostate effort to reduce the global oversupply of crude. The WSJ reports:

Not counting the U.S. and the 24 countries in the OPEC-led coalition, the next five biggest producing countries are poised to increase their combined output by around 300,000 barrels a day, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of five oil research agencies and investment banks.

Canada and Brazil, the world’s seventh and 10th biggest suppliers, are projected to record the fastest production growth outside the U.S. this year as long-planned projects come online. Norway and the U.K. are also seen as raising production this year, though by smaller amounts. Of the five countries, only China’s output is expected to fall this year.

This is part of the new oil reality that Daniel Yergin recently described as one characterized by a “cost recalibration.” Outside of the petrostate stalwarts, producers are adjusting to today’s lower price environment by trimming the fat and reaping efficiency gains (enabled by information technology) to stay profitable even at $50 per barrel crude. We’re seeing that most clearly in America’s shale formations, but Brazil, Canada, Norway, and the UK are on the same track.

OPEC & co. will almost certainly agree to extend their cuts through the end of the year next week. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two biggest producers by output in this makeshift coalition, have already expressed a willingness to constrain output through March of next year. At this point, a majority of OPEC’s membership has come out in support of more cuts, which could make next week’s summit “a bit of a non-event,” according to commodity analyst Jan Edelmann.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 19, 2017 at 07:30PM

Uncategorized 20 May 2017

American Shale Boom Forces OPEC To Consider Even Deeper Cuts

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

OPEC may make further production cuts and extend an existing deal to curb oil output for a further nine months as it battles to prop up global prices in the face of a resurgent American shale industry.

Ministers of the 13 member states of the oil exporters’ group, which pumps a third of the world’s oil, will gather in Vienna on Thursday for a biannual policy meeting. At a preliminary meeting yesterday, representatives studied several scenarios, including the option of making deeper cuts, as they sketched out a possible supply deal.

Opec clipped its daily production quota by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1 in an attempt to drive up prices after two years of low returns that have ravaged the economies of many oil-dependent countries. That deal remains in force, but it is due to be reappraised in Vienna in the wake of a study of its effectiveness in rebalancing the global oil market.

Russia and other non-Opec oil exporter nations agreed to collaborate in the deal by cutting their output by 600,000 barrels per day.

While the existing deal succeeded in driving prices to above $50 a barrel, the action has had only a limited impact on its primary goal: draining a global glut that has built up since 2014. The overhang is starting to ease, but far more slowly than Opec hoped.