Extra Icy Arctic in May

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Image from earth:nullschool showing arctic wind patterns. This is the link to the animated display:
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In May Arctic ice continues to be more extensive than recently.  As previously reported, central and Atlantic sea ice is above decadal averages.  The image below shows surprising growth since day 120 (April 30), with a pause the last few days.

Things are different on the Pacific side where Bering in particular has melted ahead of schedule, and now extending in Chuchi sea, inside the actual Arctic basin.

The graph below shows how in recent days 2017 NH ice extents have grown above average, even including the exceptionally low amounts of ice in the Pacific, Bering in particular.

Note that as of day 138, yesterday, 2017 NH ice was ~200k km2 above average, 300k above SII estimates, 600k above 2007 and nearly 800k km2 more than last year.

The graph below shows Arctic ice excluding the Pacific seas of Bering and Okhotsk.  This provides an even more dramatic view of this years ice extents.  Mid April Arctic ice was average, and look what has happened since May began on day 121.  There was a drop and a rise, with a current surplus of 450k km2.

The table for day 138 shows the regional extents for 2017 compared to averages and 2007.

The 300k km2 deficit in Bering and Okhotsk is evident.  Also Chuchi is starting to the show the effects from early Bering melting.  Every other sea is above average, with large surpluses in Baffin and Barents sea.

Some insight into the unusual Arctic ice growth comes from AER Arctic Report and Forecast May 8, 2017

Currently positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies are mostly focused on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic with mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This is resulting in a near record low Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for May.

It might be the second week of May but an unusually strong block/high pressure exists in the northern North Atlantic including Iceland and Greenland and is more commonly associated with winter. The unusually strong block is contributing to not only below normal temperatures to both sides of the North Atlantic, including Europe and the Eastern US but late season snowfall to Southeastern Canada, the Northeastern US and Russia. The negative geopotential height anomalies that have developed both downstream across western Eurasia including Europe and upstream across the Eastern US are predicted to persist for much of the month of May helping to ensure a relatively cool month of May for both Europe and the Eastern US.

Summary

Do not be mislead by reports of declining sea ice in the Arctic; it is a distraction based on early melting in the Pacific, especially Bering sea.

Meanwhile, on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, we have sightings and reports of ice surges along the coast of Newfoundland, such amounts not seen since the 1980s. Below is a NASA satellite photo of Newfoundland Sea Ice, May 5, 2017 Source: Newsfoundsander

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May 19, 2017 at 08:21AM

Theresa Wants To Lead The Fight Against Climate Change–But Won’t Tell Us How!

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By Paul Homewood

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The Tory manifesto also contains the above statement.

On the face of it, if we have got half way in 27 years, it should not be hard to get the rest of the way in the next 33. But, unfortunately, it is not quite as simple as that!

GHG emissions last year were 460 MtCO2e, down from 797 MtCO2e in 1990:

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The 2050 target is 80% below 1990, that is 159 MtCO2e. We therefore need to reduce current emissions by 65% to meet this figure.

Moreover, the low lying fruit has already been picked.

In 1990, coal generation accounted for 68% of total power, with virtually no CCGT at all. Long before the Climate Change Act the dash for gas in the 1990s, built upon cheap North Sea gas, quickly began to supplant coal (and oil as well).

Last year, gas accounted for 42%, with coal down to 9%. This switch has been responsible for a good chunk of reduced emissions. Clearly, with coal nearly off the scene, there is little scope for such savings in future.

Secondly, energy consumption by industry has plummeted by 33% since 2000. Much of this must be due to offshoring. BEIS optimistically assume that energy demand from industry will remain pretty much stable in coming years !

Needless to say, the Tory manifesto does not give an inkling as to how we are supposed to eliminate most of our emissions in the next 33 years.

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May 19, 2017 at 08:15AM

Germany’s Energiewende ‘An Economic, Social and Ecological Disaster’, Leading Social Democrat Warns

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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In a referendum slated for this coming Sunday, Swiss citizens are being called to vote on a national energy strategy, dubbed Energiestrategie 2050.

Germany Green Party co-founder and former federal Homeland Minister Otto Georg Schily warns Swiss citizens voting on energy referendum that the Energiewende is “an economic, social and ecological disaster”. 

Now it is reported that just days ago German Green Party co-founder (later turned socialist) and former German Homeland Minister Otto Schily has come out to warn Swiss citizens against voting yes on the project, reminding them that Germany’s Energiewende (transition to green energies) is not the success it is often claimed to be, and that it has in fact turned into a 25 billion euro a year disaster.

This is reported the online Swiss daily, Basler Zeitung here.

Schily held the top position in Germany’s Homeland Ministry in the country’s Socialist/Green coalition government led by Gerhard Schröder from 1998 to 2005. He is regarded as one of the country’s most respected elderly politicians and statesmen.

According to the Basler Zeitung, Schily wrote a letter to Christoph Blocher, where he judged the Energiewende to be an “economic, ecological and social disaster” and so urged Swiss citizens to vote no.

The rightwing Swiss SVP party, led by Blocher, is leading the campaign against the green energy transformation project put forth by Swiss President Doris Leuthard of the centrist Christian CVP party. Both Schily and Blocher were Homeland ministers at the same time in their respective countries in the 2000s and are reported to maintain light contact.

The online Swiss site BLICK characterized Schily’s letter as “explosive”.

Full post

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May 19, 2017 at 07:47AM

Weekend Unthreaded

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May 19, 2017 at 06:51AM