Another New Paper Traces Variations In Temperatures, Precipitation To Variations In Solar Activity

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Scientists Ascribe Climate Changes

To Solar Forcing – No CO2 Attribution

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In recent months, there have been dozens of papers published in the scientific literature ascribing variations in temperature and precipitation (climate) to corresponding variations in solar forcing.

Another new paper, Zhang et al., 2017, has just been published online.  The nine scientists contributing to the research place special emphasis on the relationship between solar activity and climate for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region of Central Asia for the last 10,000-12,000 years.

The authors link high and low solar activity to correspondingly high and low temperatures and precipitation.  Undulating millennial- and centennial-scale temperatures are found to vary by about 2.5°C throughout the Holocene.   No mention is made of carbon dioxide as an influential factor affecting climate change.

Although the instrumental record for the region documents an abrupt warming in recent decades (which aligns with the Modern Grand Maximum), the proxy evidence from subfossil chironomids used to reconstruct temperature does not show a significant or unusual regional warming trend during the last century.

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Holocene high-res. quantitative summer temp. reconstruction …

southeast margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau [Central Asia]

Zhang et al., 2017

1.    The record suggests the summer temperature varies by ~2.5 °C across the entire period. A generally warmer period occurred between c.8500 and c.6000 cal yr BP and a cooling trend was initiated from c.5500 cal yr BP. The overall pattern broadly matches the summer insolation at 30N and the Asian Summer Monsoon records from the surrounding regions suggesting that summer temperatures from the southeast margin of the QTP [Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau] respond to insolation forcing and monsoon driven variability on a multi-millennial time scale. Modifications of this overall trend are observed on the finer temporal resolution and we suggest that solar activity could be an important mechanism driving the centennial-scale variability. It may have a strengthened effect in the late Holocene when the monsoon influence weakened.

2.    We highlight that solar activity likely plays an enhanced role in changes of summer temperatures because of the high elevation of the QTP when the monsoon is weaker. The results also indicate that summer temperature variability at the QTP responds rapidly to solar irradiance changes in the late Holocene.

3.  The temperature drop may be also due to a decline in the solar activity related to the Hallstatt cycle, with solar minima centered at approximately 8200, 5500, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP (Steinhilber et al., 2012).

4.   All three records broadly follow the decreasing trend of summer insolation at 30 N (Berger and Loutre, 1991) and this pattern is widely recorded across southern and eastern Asia including from Dongge and Qunf Caves (Dykoski et al., 2005; Fleitmann et al., 2007). The trend is marked by a broad shift to lower average summer temperature values from ~5500 cal yr BP in the lake records, suggesting that long-term summer temperature and precipitation changes in southwestern China respond to changes in insolation forcing (Gray et al., 2010).

5.   The delayed response of regional climate to orbital forcing in the early Holocene may be linked to the temperature variability predominantly being driven by centennial scale solar irradiance fluctuations during this period (Fleitmann et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2005). In addition, the existence of remnant ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes in the early Holocene could have also caused the delay of the attainment of a temperature optimum in southwestern China in response to the solar insolation maximum (Xiao et al., 2009; Wen et al., 2010).

6.   The chironomid record from Tiancai Lake shows a 2.2° C summer warming just after ~2500 cal yr BP and the alkenone-based record from Qinghai Lake also shows a warming at this time interval. The warm period persisted for nearly 1000 years until ~1600 cal yr BP. This temporal coherence suggests a regional climate response and indicates that secondary forcing mechanisms can modify the insolation driven system. This warm period is possibly related to the rapid and overall rise of solar activity (Steinhilber et al., 2012).

7.   [T]hese observations may reflect the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon as a result of the enhanced solar activity influence. It is in line with evidence suggested in a few studies (Lihua et al., 2007; Thamban et al., 2007; Hiremath et al., 2015) from the Indian Summer Monsoon (e.g. Bay of Bengal) influenced area. In summary, the solar irradiance fluctuation is inferred to affect the summer air temperatures at the QTP either by directly raising lake water temperatures at the high altitude under a weakened summer monsoon condition or alternatively, it could also result in variations of the Indian Summer Monsoon activity at decadal to centennial scale in the late Holocene.

8.   In general, the pattern of millennial summer temperature changes is driven by the summer insolation-forced intensity of Asian summer monsoons during the Holocene. Variations from this general pattern were evident during the late Holocene and may be related to a shift in solar activity (e.g. from ~2500 to 1600 cal yr BP).

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May 18, 2017 at 01:10AM

Climategate Email: UEA’s Phil Jones admits cooling trend (But adjusted data denies it)

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From: Phil Jones 

To: John Christy Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
John,
There has been some email traffic in the last few days to a week - quite
a bit really, only a small part about MSU. The main part has been one of
your House subcommittees wanting Mike Mann and others and IPCC
to respond on how they produced their reconstructions and how IPCC
produced their report.
In case you want to look at this see later in the email !
Also this load of rubbish !
This is from an Australian at BMRC (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached
article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no
uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only
7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant.

Here’s a curious thing. The current satellite data shows a flat or cooling trend from 1998 to mid 2005, but Phil Jones own HadCRUT dataset shows a warming (though not as much as the uber-manipulated NASA GISS. Is this because HadCRUT has been adjusted so that the 1998-2005.5 trend is upwards since Jones made this admission?

This plot, apart from anything else, shows how much uncertainty there is in measuring global temperatures, even within the last decade.

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May 17, 2017 at 06:57PM

Space weather events linked to nuclear testing

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One high-altitude nuclear test even managed to create its own artificial aurora. Others knocked out orbiting satellites.

Our Cold War history is now offering scientists a chance to better understand the complex space system that surrounds us, says Phys.org.

Space weather — which can include changes in Earth’s magnetic environment— is usually triggered by the sun’s activity, but recently declassified data on high-altitude nuclear explosion tests have provided a new look at the mechanisms that set off perturbations in that magnetic system.

Such information can help support NASA’s efforts to protect satellites and astronauts from the natural radiation inherent in space. From 1958 to 1962, the U.S. and U.S.S.R. ran high-altitude tests with exotic code names like Starfish, Argus and Teak.

The tests have long since ended, and the goals at the time were military. Today, however, they can provide crucial information on how humans can affect space.

The tests, and other human-induced space weather, are the focus of a comprehensive new study published in Space Science Reviews.

“The tests were a human-generated and extreme example of some of the space weather effects frequently caused by the sun,” said Phil Erickson, assistant director at MIT’s Haystack Observatory, Westford, Massachusetts, and co-author on the paper. “If we understand what happened in the somewhat controlled and extreme event that was caused by one of these man-made events, we can more easily understand the natural variation in the near-space environment.”

By and large, space weather – which affects the region of near-Earth space where astronauts and satellites travel – is typically driven by external factors. The sun sends out millions of high-energy particles, the solar wind, which races out across the solar system before encountering Earth and its magnetosphere, a protective magnetic field surrounding the planet.

Most of the charged particles are deflected, but some make their way into near-Earth space and can impact our satellites by damaging on-board electronics and disrupting communications or navigation signals. These particles, along with electromagnetic energy that accompanies them, can also cause auroras, while changes in the magnetic field can induce currents that damage power grids.

The Cold War tests, which detonated explosives at heights from 16 to 250 miles above the surface, mimicked some of these natural effects. Upon detonation, a first blast wave expelled an expanding fireball of plasma, a hot gas of electrically charged particles. This created a geomagnetic disturbance, which distorted Earth’s magnetic field lines and induced an electric field on the surface.

Continued here.

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May 17, 2017 at 11:57PM

Coal To Remain India’s Main Energy Source For At Least 30 Years, Govt Confirms

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By Paul Homewood

 

From GWPF:

 

Coal will remain India’s main energy source for the next three decades although its share will gradually fall as the country pushes renewable power generation, according to a government report seen by Reuters.

The country is the world’s third-largest coal producer and the third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter. It depends on coal for about three-fifths of its energy needs and aims to double its output to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2020.

By 2047, however, coal’s share of India’s energy mix would shrink to 42-48 percent, from about 58 percent in 2015, the report, which has yet to be made public, showed.

“India would like to use its abundant coal reserves as it provides a cheap source of energy and ensures energy security as well,” the report said.

http://ift.tt/2quLx3u

 

According to the Reuters report, the country is the world’s third-largest coal producer and the third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter. It depends on coal for about three-fifths of its energy needs and aims to double its output to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2020.

 

It really is a no-brainer!

India, as with most countries, is desperately keen to reduce its dependency on imported energy. Given that it has huge deposits of coal, it will want to use them.

As a recent report by InfluenceMap, “Who owns the World’s coal”, points out, China and India are sat on more than half of the world’s coal reserves.

 

http://ift.tt/2qv7tM3

 

Moreover, as the study explains, it is the Indian Government itself that owns the largest chunk of India’s reserves. It will take no action that damages this asset.

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May 17, 2017 at 11:45PM