Month: May 2017

China On Verge Of Mass Production Of New Nuclear Reactors

China On Verge Of Mass Production Of New Nuclear Reactors

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Government-run China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is ready to put its new third-generation reactor known as the Hualong One into “bulk construction”, the company’s vice-president Yu Peigen said on Wednesday.

The dome for the fifth reactor at Fuqing is lifted on Thursday morning. /CNNC Photo

Speaking at a briefing to mark the installation of the dome at the world’s first Hualong One unit at Fuqing in southeastern coastal Fujian province, Yu said there was still a lot of room for China’s nuclear capacity to grow and the company was ready to put the home-grown reactor design into mass production.

“As the Hualong One demonstration project makes smooth progress, we have already made preparations to go into bulk construction,” he said.

Officials with the company’s listed unit, China National Nuclear Power, said earlier this year that more reactors had to be approved and built to create economies of scale for the sector, which had lost its competitive edge in recent years as a result of lower coal prices.

Third-generation reactors are larger and considered safer than their predecessors, but the new designs have been subject to lengthy delays in China and elsewhere. The European Pressurised Reactor (EPR), a third-generation unit designed by Areva, has been beset with technological problems and cost overruns, but the world’s first is now expected to be completed early next year in Taishan in southeast China.

The world’s first Westinghouse AP1000 unit, another third-generation reactor being built at Sanmen on China’s eastern coast, is expected to go into full commercial operation in the first quarter of 2018, nearly four years behind the original schedule.

Yu said China hoped to break what he called the “curse” of delays facing third-generation designs.

The Hualong One was conceived as a flagship Chinese brand to promote overseas, and was based on separate designs by CNNC and its rival, China General Nuclear Power (CGN).

CGN is building its own version of the Hualong One at Fangchenggang in China’s southwest, the design of which will be used as a “reference” for a future project in Bradwell in southeast England. The technology is currently undergoing a five-year approval process by British regulators.

Full story

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 25, 2017 at 03:04PM

Record snowfall raises fears of flooding in Teton County

Record snowfall raises fears of flooding in Teton County

via Ice Age Now
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Jackson Hole Wyoming (24 May 2017) – Snowfall this past winter measured 600 inches (1524 cm), the most snowfall on record,according to data from the Bureau of Reclamation, the USGS and Mountain Weather.

The water content of the snow is approximately 165 percent of average.

The National Weather service is now predicting high snowmelt potential in the the Snake River because continuing cold weather has delayed most of the run-off.

However, officials are playing it low-key, pointing out that temps are still low enough in the mountains to maintain a steady, slow snowmelt.

However, if temperatures reach 70 degrees in the valley and 50 in the mountains for about three days straight, well, then, there could be a problem.

http://ift.tt/2qUwEYJ

Thanks to Clay Olson for this link


The post Record snowfall raises fears of flooding in Teton County appeared first on Ice Age Now.

via Ice Age Now http://ift.tt/2qcAwB3

May 25, 2017 at 11:56AM

Mindfulness and sustainable behavior: how to find a correlation where none might exist

Mindfulness and sustainable behavior: how to find a correlation where none might exist

via Trust, yet verify
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Since recently I discovered that there is a whole field of what is called ecopsychology. A couple days ago I started reading a paper by Amel, Manning, Scott and Koger (probably more about that later) and I wondered whether those four had previous papers as well on the subject. Apparently they had. Members of this group produced a bunch of papers with (an)other member(s). One of the those papers had the intriguing title “Mindfulness and Sustainable Behavior: Pondering Attention and Awareness as Means for Increasing Green Behavior” by Amel et al (2009). It was quite an intriguing read, hence this post.

The authors started from the observation that our rushed lifestyle separates us from nature and this let us fall back on automatic behaviors which are not necessarily sustainable. They investigated two aspects of mindfulness: acting with awareness (paying attention) and being in the here-and-now (observing sensations). The authors hypothesized that paying attention is necessary for making sustainable choices and their goal is to break through this automatic behavior with mindfulness, so people could adopt a more sustainable behavior.

The conclusion of the paper was that, indeed, “acting with awareness is significantly positively correlated with self-reported sustainable behavior”. They arrived at this conclusion by means of a survey. Participants completed two questionaires. One to test their level of mindfulness (they investigated two aspects: “acting with awareness” and “observing sensations”) and the other to test their level of how “green” they were. Greenness was measured on a scale of 7: 0 being “not green” (meaning: never choose the most sustainable option available if it’s more costly in terms of time, money, convenience, or personal preference) to 7 being “dark green” (meaning: always choose the most sustainable option available, even if it’s more costly in terms of time, money, convenience, or personal preference).

According to the authors, there was no correlation between “observing sensations” and the “self-reported Green Scale ratings”, but when they put “acting with awareness” against the “self-reported Green Scale ratings” in a graph, this was the result:

I was not particularly impressed. Those who score low on the Green Scale, score all over the place on the mindfulness scale. Also, although a diagonal area is recognizable, most of the area of the graph is filled with values, except for the top left area (low mindfulness/high greenness) that is empty. The authors also noticed this and took it as an indication that their hypothesis could be right:

Our hypotheses were partially supported in that the acting with awareness subscale of mindfulness was significantly positively correlated with sustainable behavior as measured by the Green Scale. The actual pattern of the data is particularly interesting as there are no outlying data points in the low mindfulness/high self-reported green ratings area. This suggests that mindlessness is incompatible with sustainable behavior.

I am not so sure about that last sentence. I see no reason why low mindfulness can’t coincide with sustainable behavior. That would mean people who theoretically know what actions are sustainable, but live their life on automatic behavior. When I look at my own history, I knew from my education what was sustainable, yet looking at the examples of what is mindful, I probably would not score very high on that scale. I guess that my data point would be somewhere in that now empty area. I can’t imagine that I would be the exception. So I began to wonder why that area was so empty.

That became a bit clearer when looking at the methodology. The survey was conducted at an expo and visitors of that expo were invitated to take the survey. The expo was a “Midwestern sustainability expo”. They also mentioned its name: the Living Green Expo (LGE) of 2006.

So, if I understand that well, they were searching for the relationship between sustainable behavior and mindfulness on an expo where the large majority of the fair visitors are interested in sustainability? The chance that there are people who are not “green” will be very small. That means that only part of the relationship will be established. This means that they are mining results in the top half of the graph and much less data points at the bottom.

Remarkable, there were participants who were not interested in sustainability on that sustainability expo. Look at the mindfulness data points of 0 and 1. Even more, three of those data points were from participants who scored very high on the mindfulness test, but very low on the greenness test. They can be found below right on the graph. The authors noticed those also and found an explanation: those participants were family members of visitors of the expo and didn’t visit the expo because they were interested in sustainability.

The authors considered them “outliers” and tried to find all kind of reasons why they shouldn’t be on the graph:

Our current definition of mindfulness is restricted to a limited subset of the cognitive realm, specifically attention and awareness. In addition to attentional mindfulness, Wallace and Shapiro (2006) described conative mindfulness as “reflection on meaningful and wholesome desires, recognizing unwholesome desires that will lead to suffering both for oneself and others” (p. 694). Ecopsychologists have pointed out (e.g., Sewell, 1995) that a deep connection with the natural world is likely to begin a love affair with the earth that will make sustainable choices seem more critical and thus hard to ignore. Indeed, it is possible that our outliers are mindful in a cognitive but not an ecologically connected sense.

and

This suggests that mindfulness may be necessary but not sufficient in predicting green behavior. We took a closer look at the surveys belonging to these outliers and found some systematic patterns among their demographics. The outliers, who were all brought to the LGE by a family member, rather than attending because they were interested in the event, rated themselves low on a stages-of-readiness scale that had been included in the survey (response options ranged from “I have not heard about environmental problems” to I “have heard of environmental problems and have completely changed as a result”). These particular respondents either did not believe that there are environmental crises or they believed it but were not ready to change.

I don’t know whether these were just outliers or should these be considered an indication that something is not really right with their hypothesis. I was even a bit surprised that there are so many data points in that high mindfulness/low greenness area, knowing that the survey is conducted in a place mainly visited by people who are more likely to be interested in sustainability.

So, are these data points outliers because this combination is uncommon in the general public or because it was measured in a group that has only few participants with low scores on the Green Scale? It gives me the impression that the authors expected a correlation and in that case, of course, those three data points could be considered outliers. I wonder how much the correlation would be if the survey was taken outside the expo, with a better mix of people having varying interest in sustainability?

Back to the issue of this empty space of low mindfulness/high greenness. Luckily, the “caveats” section was well documented, kudos to the authors for that. In that caveat section I found that although there were 14,000 visitor of the expo in 2006, the organizers had a problem finding volunteers to take the survey. Many fair visitors who were invited to take the survey were “too rushed and did not have time”… This is an interesting observation because these expo visitor are more likely to score low on the mindfulness, yet being interested in sustainability. Therefor would likely populate that now empty area that was given as part of the explanation why that mindfulness correlates positively with sustainable behavior.

They were not only mining for people who score better on the Green Scale, but apparently also those who score high on the mindfulness scale. I wonder how much the correlation would be if these were included.

Concluding, how do you find a guaranteed correlation between mindfulness and sustainability, without there having to be an actual correlation in the population? The paper shows that it is rather easy to do:

  1. Conduct a survey in a place where people who are interested in sustainability come together → this will leave you with very few participants who will score low on the sustainability scale
  2. Ignore those people who show the hallmarks of mindlessness → this will leave you with very few participants who will score low on the mindfulness scale
  3. Now look at the data. If you don’t find data points in the low mindfulness/high greenness area or in the high mindfulness/low greenness area, then, hallelujah, this is of course exactly what you expected!
  4. If you nonetheless find data points there (there will not be many anyway, because of your methodology), then don’t worry, just consider these to be outliers…

Congratulations! Now you have found a significant positive correlation between mindfulness and sustainability!

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May 25, 2017 at 10:54AM

OPEC Doubles Down on its Losing Hand

OPEC Doubles Down on its Losing Hand

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

The oil cartel OPEC and a collection of ten other petrostates recommitted themselves to a plan to cut production this week.

The FT reports:

The agreement hammered out in Vienna on Thursday will see the 1.8m barrel a day cuts, first agreed in November, extended to the end of the first quarter of 2018. Russia and other non-Opec countries have signed up to the deal, Suhail al Mazrouei, the oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, told the Financial Times. “Everyone is in agreement,” he said.

These petrostates decided on a production cut last November that would last through the first six months of 2017, and this new extension, agreed upon in Vienna during OPEC’s semiannual meeting, will require those limits on output to continue another nine months, through March of next year.

But if the goal of this market intervention was to reduce an oversupply and set off a price rebound, why has Brent crude fallen nearly 5 percent in trading since the announcement? The WSJ has an idea:

A longer period of the same level of production disappointed investors in part because of the widely held expectation that U.S. shale will continue to ramp up, keeping supply high and dampening prices. […]

That means U.S. shale may emerge as the deal’s biggest beneficiary, a reality that highlights the pressure on the two massive players, Saudi Arabia and Russia, to extend their output agreement—even though so far it hasn’t significantly lifted prices or drained a global oversupply of petroleum.

This won’t come as a surprise to our regular readers. We’ve been making the case for many months now that the biggest beneficiary of this production cut agreement hasn’t been its organizers, but the upstart competitors that necessitated it: American shale companies. While these oil regimes have wrung their hands about the falling price of oil and plotted ways to make the commodity more expensive, these U.S. firms have worked on bringing their operating costs down to a level that would allow them to compete in this new low-cost reality. And they’ve succeeded.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 25, 2017 at 10:03AM