Since 2005, Arctic Sea Ice Has Pivoted To A Slightly Increasing Trend, With No Detectable Arctic Warming

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Arctic: 12 Years Of Sea Ice

And Temperature Stability

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In the last 144 months, or since 2005, there has been no decreasing trend in Arctic sea ice.  In fact, there has been a slight increasing trend.

 

NSIDC Data – Graph Source: woodfortrees.org (2005.3-2017.3) or woodfortrees.org (Last 144 Months)

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Since the 21st century began, nearly all of the increase in Arctic-wide temperatures occurred between about 2001 and 2005.   Since mid-2005, the Arctic temperature trend has stabilized, with no significantly detectable warming.

HadCRUT4 Data – Graph Source: climate4you

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When viewed from a longer-term context, the current  Arctic temperature trends are not unusual.  In fact, the warmth of the last 12 years was matched during the 1920s to 1940s, with about 50 years of Arctic cooling in between.

HadCRUT4 Data – Graph Source: climate4you

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Hanhijärvi et al., 2013

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Yamanouchi, 2011

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From a still longer-term perspective, not only are modern Arctic temperatures not unusual, they are still cooler than a significant portion of the last 8,000 years.

And not only is the current Arctic sea ice extent not unusual, there is still much more sea ice in modern times than there was during much of the Early Holocene, when the Arctic Ocean was sometimes ice-free during the summer months.

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Spolaor et  al., 2016

“Researchers have found that 8000 years ago the Arctic climate was 2 to 3 degrees warmer than now, and that there was also less summertime Arctic sea ice than today.”

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Jakobsson et al., 2010     

“The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.”

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Jakobsson et al., 2014

“Several studies suggest that the Early Holocene (∼6000–10,000 years BP) experienced less summer-sea ice than at present. …. [S]ea ice during the Early Holocene potentially could have moved over to a seasonal regime with sea ice-free summers due to the insolation maxima the Earth experienced at that time.”

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Funder et al., 2011

“Arctic Sea Ice extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum 8,000 years ago was less than half of the record low 2007 level. … Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position.”

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Zhang, 2015

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Hanhijärvi et al., 2013

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Gajewski, 2015

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Bonnet et al., 2010

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June 26, 2017 at 04:11AM