Predicting Planetary Temperature (without referring to radiation)
via Scottish Sceptic
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We are constantly being told that the Greenhouse effect is due to a radiative process. I want to show simply that it is not. Instead as per Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller I want to show that from first principles it … Continue reading →
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March 27, 2017 at 08:23AM
Miami Beach Turning Into Modern Day Atlantis–Fake News BBC
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood
h/t QV
The fake news BBC World at One today took the chance to add a bit of Project Climate Fear to their unashamedly anti Trump agenda, with a a piece on how rising seas are turning Miami Beach into a modern day Atlantis.
It starts at about 25 mins in, with Trump’s expected announcement this week to drop Obama’s Clean Power Plan. (As usual, you may not be able to access the BBC iPlayer outside the UK).
Queue their correspondent from Florida, who tells us quite literally that “rising seas and flooding are turning Miami Beach into a modern day Atlantis, the city being submerged by water”
A virulently anti Trump interviewee then tells us that Miami has 30 years left, and we later learn that sea levels at Miami are rising at ten times the global rate.
Of course, you won’t hear any real facts on the BBC.
For instance, that the current rate of rise is 2.45mm/year, and that it has been rising at this rate or more since 1940.
They might also have mentioned that, according to Church & White’s analysis, the land there is actually sinking at a rate of 0.53mm/yr, thus accounting for a fifth of the rise.
In common with other locations on the US East Coast, sea levels have been rising steadily for the last century, as part of a perfectly natural process since the end of the Little Ice Age, as well as a glacial isostatic process.
Interestingly, the programme refers to all of the property development going on in Florida, with the irate anti Trump interviewee basically calling those buying condos idiots.
I suspect that those involved in building and purchasing these know a lot more about the real facts than the BBC reporter, who clearly has already made his mind up.
Maybe at some point in the distant future the seas might win, but the couple of millimeters a year of sea level rise in the last century don’t seem to have made much of an impression:
Lummus Park, Miami Beach – The 1930s and now.
And I very much doubt whether Obama’s Clean Power Plan will make the slightest difference either!
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March 27, 2017 at 07:30AM
Late winter polar bear habitat 2017 vs. 2006 and 2011 shows no trend
via polarbearscience
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Here is a bit of historical perspective for rational readers trying to make sense of the doom-mongering of others that current sea ice conditions spell trouble for polar bears, given that the winter maximum extent for 2017 reached a new seasonal low (keeping in mind that NSIDC does not publish error bars for these measurements, which helps elevate such pronouncements to “news”).
Ice extent (courtesy NSIDC’s MASIE) at 25 March (Day 84) is below for 2017, 2011 and 2006, almost 3 weeks after the winter maximum was declared at 7 March for 2017, 9 March for 2011, and 12 March for 2006. Extent at the maximum for 2006 was estimated at 14.68 mkm2, 14.42 mkm2 for 2017, and 14.67 mkm2 in 2011 (what tiny differences make headlines these days).
Remember: there are no polar bears in the Sea of Okhotsk or in the Baltic Sea (marked with an * below) yet ice in those regions is included in the Arctic totals used to determine maximum seasonal extent. Much (and sometimes, all) of the “Arctic” variation in extent at this time of year is accounted for by variation in Sea of Okhotsk and Baltic Sea coverage.
Bottom line: total winter ice extent for the Arctic ≠ winter polar bear habitat and neither have changed much in a decade.
See close up of the above graphic below.
Sea ice was breaking up on 25 March in eastern Hudson Bay in 2006 (evident even in the above chart) and there was just a bit of sea ice off Labrador (map above, far right).
Yet, Davis Strait bears were surveyed the following year and found to have increased markedly since the previous survey – which means if late March ice had a negative impact on survival in 2006, it was not enough to offset the long-term increase (although it may have been enough to impact body condition in some bears).
Below is a graph of the March average extent for 1979-2016 (NOT the seasonal maximum but usually close), where the 2006 low stands out just as strongly as the drop in summer ice in 2007, discussed here. However, although there has been year-to-year variation, there has not been a further dramatic drop since then (the 2017 point yet to be determined of course but likely in the same ballpark as 2006, 2015, and 2016).
In other words, no trend since 2006.
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March 27, 2017 at 06:55AM
Corrections
via Defeat Climate Alarmism
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Correction to my essay in WUWT, Is Climate Alarmism Governance at War with the USA?: the likely time when hostile activities of the governing body of climate alarmism hypothetically rose to the level of war is 2011-2013, about a year and a half later than written in the article. Thanks to Hilary Ostrov for reminding me of the relevant facts.
via Defeat Climate Alarmism https://defyccc.com
March 27, 2017 at 06:30AM
