Category: Uncategorized

Energy Disaster Spells the End for Australia’s Renewable Energy Target

Energy Disaster Spells the End for Australia’s Renewable Energy Target

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It happened in the blink of an eye: Australia went from energy heavyweight to a country in crisis looking for the equivalent of life support. Since STT got going in December 2012, we have drifted from frustration to despair and back waiting and hoping for mainstream journalists to recognise the existential threat posed by Australia’s […]

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March 22, 2017 at 06:32PM

On the Politicization of Electricity (intervention breeding intervention)

On the Politicization of Electricity (intervention breeding intervention)

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“Government-orchestrated retail competition in electricity largely failed. With that failure came the return of regulatory-mandated, utility-administered wasteful energy efficiency programs. This time the programs carried the added justification of countering global warming.”

Prior to the oil shocks of the 1970s, energy was just another input in the management of capital, labor and other operating costs. Tradeoffs were made between energy costs and capital spent to increase efficiency. During the natural turnover of capital equipment, energy efficiency improved along with productivity, quality and waste reduction. Effective energy use was a technical matter where efficiency had to make economic sense.

Oil  and  gas  shortages in  the  1970s  were caused  by  government  price controls, but the news media hyped the concept of “running out” of resources. This brought politics into the use of energy, an example of how the problems from government intervention can breed more intervention.

With the stated goal of being “energy independent,” a variety of federal government boondoggles were initiated, including synthetic fuels subsidies to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The electric utility industry faced restrictions on the use of natural gas for generation, which encouraged new coal-fired capacity.

Nuclear generation appeared to the best option given questions about fossil fuels. A significant part of the utility industry exhibited a lemming-like propensity for doing the wrong thing in mass. State utility regulators played a part in  encouraging  the  proliferation of what turned out to be very expensive  investments.

Management of energy became a formalized separate management responsibility among end users. The price shocks from the oil  market and, later, the power market made energy efficiency measures attractive. The market poured forth new devices and improvements in energy-using equipment that greatly reduced the energy intensity of the U.S.  economy. The managers of enterprises faced an array of new energy control products that continues increasing to this day.

Along with the market response to high energy prices, new laws were complicating the use of energy. Natural  gas  use  was  discouraged in industrial as well as utility boilers. Gas supplies were perceived by policy makers as a soon-to-be-exhausted resource. Some industrial processes were switched to electricity. In such cases overall efficiency was taking a back seat to conserving natural gas. Tax credits influenced energy investments. Saving energy had patriotic implications. Building codes now included energy standards.

The shock from cost overruns on nuclear generating plants caused a loss of confidence by the upper managements of electric utilities. During this moment of weakness the concept of having a public policy on energy use came to the fore among utility regulators. The idea was that if the utilities invested in energy efficiency, then they would not need to build so many power plants. In regulatory circles the new buzz words were “least-cost planning” and “demand-side management.”

The utilities had the good sense to be suspicious of the grandiose claim that efficiency improvements would slow the overall demand for energy. But they were soon bought off with promises of guaranteed profits on approved but expensive efficiency programs. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, a number of sound economists pointed out the flaws of asking a provider of services to reduce his own sales. Further, with amazing accuracy, these economists predicted failure.

Billions of dollars were spent by the nation’s utilities on demand-side programs with little to show for it but inflated claims. The money, of course, came from utility customers. Those who had already invested in energy efficiencies were taxed to pay for the same improvements in their competitors’ facilities. According to economist Franz Wirl both the utilities and customers gamed the system of giveaways for efficiency measures.

Then a wave of rationality struck the electricity industry. Competition for end users was instituted in many  states  and  planned  in  still  more. Customer  choice  akin  to  that  in  telecommunications  was  seen  as  the  wave  of  the  future. The  regulated  utilities  began  the  wholesale  dumping  of  their  wasteful  customer  efficiency  programs. In  the  industry  this  was  known  as  “getting  trash  off  the  books.”

The regulated suppliers rightly feared unregulated competitors who would not add frivolous costs to their services. End users enjoyed a period of stable and even declining rates as the utilities were forced to make rational decisions in a quasi market environment. But the retail market concept was flawed.  Rather than evolving through  the  market  process,  political dictates  prevailed  in  designing  the  structure.

The result was a Frankenstein’s monster. It looked like the real thing but lacked the essential features necessary for a real market. Entrepreneurs were not allowed to develop alternative delivery systems. The scheme  could be called mandatory access with guaranteed return on overvalued assets.

However, on  the  wholesale  level  time-sensitive  pricing  became  the  norm  and  made electricity a commodity that is exchanged like other commodities using marginal cost pricing. This rationality spread to some sectors of the retail market and brought much-needed customer feedback to utilities.

Government-orchestrated retail competition in electricity largely failed. With that failure came the return of regulatory-mandated, utility-administered wasteful efficiency programs. This time the programs carried the added justification of countering global warming. In a typical utility program $6 is collected for giving away low-energy light  bulbs  that  a  consumer  can  buy  for less than $1.50, and  the  utilities  are  asking  to  recover  hundreds of millions of dollars without verifying they achieved any energy savings.

The bad news for consumers has not ended with the rebirth of these demand-side management programs. Another round of high-cost nuclear plants is underway.  The lesson that should have been learned from the last round of nuclear plant building is that the utilities need to be subjected to market conditions and their attendant risks.  Instead, we see the utilities going to their state regulators and general assemblies and getting guaranteed recovery on investments with no upper cap!   Green  energy purchase mandates  are  driving  up  the  cost  of  electricity  already,  and  will  certainly get worse.

End users are trying to be politically correct and are adopting high-sounding green goals. The end-user energy management  function now includes issuing press releases filled with platitudes. One-size-fits-all energy measures are being promoted to obtain certification of an enterprise’s commitment to saving the earth.  The overhead surrounding energy saving programs has increased.

Dubious  environmental  effects  are  included  along  with  hard  energy  saving  numbers to justify politically correct investments and practices. Utility rates, which have always included cross-subsidies for politically favored groups, are being distorted even further from market results with additional features encouraging certain green behavior.

Conclusion

The zigs  and  zags  of  state  and  federal  energy  policies  have  caused  massive  mal-investment by both  energy  suppliers  and  users.   The best energy policy is no energy policy. Market forces should replace regulation; supply and demand with unfettered competition should determine energy prices. Proper  energy  prices  will  lead  to  wise  customer  investments  and  practices.  Energy efficiency is its own reward and needs no encouragement from governments.

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Jim Clarkson is founder and head of Resource Supply Management (RSM), an energy procurement and management company based in South Carolina. He is also a director of the Institute for Energy Research and its advocacy arm, The American Energy Alliance.

The post On the Politicization of Electricity (intervention breeding intervention) appeared first on Master Resource.

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March 22, 2017 at 06:04PM

New Report: Current Global Warming Is ‘Not Outside The Range Of Natural Variations’

New Report: Current Global Warming Is ‘Not Outside The Range Of Natural Variations’

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

A UK-based climate policy group has put out an annual climate assessment “exclusively on observations rather than climate models” to serve as a counterpoint to those put out by the United Nations and government agencies that warn of unabated global warming.

The Global Warming Policy Foundation’s (GWPF) climate assessment, like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), noted 2016 was likely the warmest year on record due to an incredibly strong El Niño warming event that boosted tropical ocean temperatures starting in 2015.

That’s about all the GWPF’s report has in common with the WMO’s assessment for 2016, which warns “the influence of human activities on the climate system has become more and more evident.”

“There is little doubt that we are living in a warm period,” said Ole Humlum, a physical geography professor at the University Centre in Norway and author of the GWPF report.

Humlum is a global warming skeptic who’s spent decades studying glaciers and climate. Humlum argues that while the world is warming, it’s well within the bounds of natural variability.

“However, there is also little doubt that current climate change is not abnormal and not outside the range of natural variations that might be expected,” Humlum said.

Humlum found that while 2016 was the warmest year on record, it was mostly due to the incredibly strong El Niño. The WMO, on the other hand, claims El Niño only contributed between 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius to 2016’s record 1.1 degree Celsius anomaly.

He argues El Niño was the main driver behind record high temperatures last year because “global air temperatures were essentially back to the level of the years before the recent 2015–16 oceanographic El Niño episode.”

In general, the WMO’s report takes a more ominous tone in general when describing climatic conditions in 2016. WMO reported the “increase in global temperature is consistent with other changes in the climate system.”

“Globally averaged sea-surface temperatures were also the warmest on record; global sea levels continued to rise; and Arctic sea-ice extent was well below average for most of the year,” WMO reported.

“The year was marked by severe droughts that affected agricultural production and left people exposed to food insecurity in southern and eastern Africa and Central America,” WMO reported, also mentioning Hurricane Matthew, heavy flooding in Asia and coral reef bleaching.

Humlum counters that unseasonably high temperatures in the Arctic were driven by El Niño. Heat transported from the tropics to the poles. Both poles saw record-low sea ice levels, but that could also be driven by natural cycles.

“In the Arctic, a 5.3-year periodic variation is important, while for the Antarctic a cycle of about 4.5 years duration is important,” Humlum wrote. “Both these variations reached their minima simultaneously in 2016, which explains the recent minimum in global sea-ice extent.”

Humlum also noted how surface-based temperature datasets have diverged from satellite-based readings since 2003. Surface data shows about 1 degree Celsius more warming than satellites.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 22, 2017 at 09:44AM

U.S. EIA: “Record Precipitation, Snowpack in California”

U.S. EIA: “Record Precipitation, Snowpack in California”

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Guest post by David Middleton

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Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture Drought Monitor

MARCH 22, 2017

Record precipitation, snowpack in California expected to increase hydro generation in 2017

For the first time since 2011, California’s drought is significantly weakening—a result of one of the wettest winters on record. California has experienced record levels of precipitation this winter, and unlike last winter, cooler temperatures over the 2016–2017 winter season have enabled the precipitation to build up snowpack (the total accumulated snow and ice on the ground). High precipitation and snowpack levels, both of which supply hydroelectric generators throughout the year, suggest that hydroelectric generation in California in 2017 will significantly exceed 2016 levels.

Although the drought state of emergency declared by California authorities in January 2014 is still in place, drought conditions have noticeably improved, and the northern half of the state is no longer classified in any stage of drought severity. The area of the state classified as being in exceptional drought (D4), the most extreme category, has dropped to zero, a significant improvement over the 40% and 35% of the state’s land area classified as being in exceptional drought in March 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, 23% of the state—mostly regions in the south—is still in a moderate drought (category D1) status or worse. Mandatory water restrictions, enacted for the first time in the state’s history in April 2015, remain in effect in California. State officials are expected to wait until the full winter season ends in April to amend or rescind the state’s emergency drought declaration.

Snowpack levels have increased significantly from the near-zero levels measured in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in April 2015. As of March 21, 2017, the California Department of Water Resources reported that statewide snowpack was 158% of normal for that date. A more important metric when considering snowpack is the snow water equivalent (SWE)—the total amount of water contained within the snowpack. California’s SWE levels have noticeably increased this year, and as of March 21, the California Department of Water Resources reported that the statewide snow water equivalent was also 158% of average for that date.

[…]

Snowpack and SWE are strong drivers of hydroelectric generation because runoff from melting snowpack feeds hydroelectric plants in the spring and summer months. California’s hydroelectric generation increased through most of 2016, especially toward the end of the year. Total 2016 hydroelectric generation in California was well above the 2013–2015 range and was nearly as high as the longer-term, pre-drought generation average over 2001–2010. High levels of SWE from the 2016–2017 winter suggest increases in hydroelectric generation in California later in 2017.

[…]

U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, and California Department of Water Resources Note: California snow water equivalent data for March 2017 is based on a partial set of monthly data.

So much for California’s “unending drought.“

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March 22, 2017 at 09:03AM