Solar Slump: The Sun has been blank for two weeks straight

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Solar Slump: The Sun has been blank for two weeks straight

Over the weekend, we reviewed the state of the solar data for March 2017. Now, there’s a two week straight lack of sunspots, the longest stretch since 2010.

A blank look to the sun on Monday, March 20, and it has now been blank for two weeks straight; image courtesy NASA/GSFC

Overview

The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch since April 2010 according to spaceweather.com. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010 – the last time there was a two week stretch with no visible sunspots –  the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep.  There have already been 26 spotless days in 2017 (34% of the entire year) and this follows 32 spotless days last year which occurred primarily during the latter part of the year. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum – probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.  By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980.  One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.

Comparison of all solar cycles since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle. Plot courtesy publication cited below, authors Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt

Third weakest solar cycle since 1755
A recent publication has analyzed the current solar cycle and has found that when sunspot anomalies are compared to the mean for the number of months after cycle start, there have been only two weaker cycles since observations began in 1755.  Solar cycle 24 began in 2008 after a historically long and deep solar minimum which puts us more than eight years into the current cycle.  The plot (above) shows accumulated sunspot anomalies from the mean value after cycle start (97 months ago) and only solar cycles 5 and 6 had lower levels going all the way back to 1755.  The mean value is noted at zero and solar cycle 24 is running 3817 spots less than the mean.  The seven cycles preceded by solar cycle 24 had more sunspots than the mean.

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. Last day shown: 28 February 2017. (Graph courtesy climate4you.com)

Read more at Paul Dorian’s Vencore Weather

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March 20, 2017 at 04:54AM

Canadian Prime Minister: ”No Country Would Find 173 Billion Barrels Of Oil And Just Leave Them In The Ground’

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau received an unusually warm reception of his keynote address at an energy industry conference in Texas on Thursday evening.

“No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and just leave them there,” Trudeau said in his address to oil and gas industry executives at Houston’s CERAWeek conference, discussing Alberta’s vast oil sands reserves.

Trudeau’s speech was met with a standing ovation from the more than 1,200 attendees — an unordinary reaction to a keynote speaker, conference-goers told the CBC. The prime minister was also given an award for his efforts to balance environmental protection and energy production.

“The resource will be developed. Our job is to ensure that this is done responsibly, safely, and sustainably,” Trudeau said. “Nothing is more essential to the US economy than access to a secure, reliable source of energy. Canada is that source.”

Trudeau has been under fire from Canada’s oil industry after he stumbled while discussing the topic in January. He told an audience in Ontario that the oil sands should be phased out, later telling The Globe and Mail that he “misspoke.”

Trudeau’s speech also touted his support for the Keystone XL pipeline, one of the few areas where he and US President Donald Trump share common ground.

Full story

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 20, 2017 at 04:45AM

Discussion thread – improving the interface between climate science and policy

via Climate Etc.
https://judithcurry.com

by Judith Curry

I’m looking for ideas and discussion on ways to improve what I regard to be a broken interface between climate science and policy.

I’m preparing a new document (I’ll be able to post it next week).  I’m struggling with how to frame some recommendations for improving this situation.  Here is some text along with recommendations to kick off the discussion.  I look forward to your comments.

We need to rethink the contract between scientists and government, and develop a new model for the 21st century, particularly for policy-relevant science.  This is needed to insure the integrity of science and to improve the basis for science to inform the policy process.

Here are my recommendations:

1. Embrace science as an iterative process, not a collection of ‘facts.’ Scientists should engage the public across the political spectrum and invite them to engage in the process of science.
2. Universities need new incentive structures for faculty members working in scientific fields that are policy relevant, that focus on careful management of bias and uncertainty, public engagement, responsible interactions with the media, and participation in the policy process as an honest broker.
3. Scientists need a much better understanding of the policy process, the role that science plays, and how complexity, pluralism and uncertainty in science is accommodated in the policy process.
4. Scientists need better guidelines on the ethical implications of using their expertise for political purposes and a code of conduct for communicating uncertainty and making public, and responsibilities for making public statements related to their expertise.
5. Bias and advocacy by institutions that support science such as professional societies is a major concern for the integrity of the scientific processes. These institutions should be incentivized to support debates at professional meetings and to adopt parallel evidence-based analyses for competing hypotheses.
6. For policy-relevant science and regulatory science, more formal methods of uncertainty characterization and management should be used in scientific research and assessments.
7. For policy-relevant and/or regulatory science where there is substantial uncertainty or disagreement about key conclusions, a Red Team or Team B approach should be used for assessments to clarify the strength of the arguments and key areas of disagreement.

via Climate Etc. https://judithcurry.com

March 20, 2017 at 04:33AM

Prehistoric polar bear find has elongated body type Inuit know as a ‘weasel bear’

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A story that broke in Alaska newspapers a month ago made the UK press this weekend about the archaeological discovery of 1,300 year old polar bear skull that may be associated with an unusual body type known to Inuit hunters. See the Mail Online cropped headline below, full story here – and some quotes and critical background below.

From the Alaska Daily Mail story (19 February 2017) below:

A huge, unusually shaped polar bear skull, left, emerged in 2014 from an eroding archaeological site southwest of Utqiagvik. It is quite different from most modern polar bear skulls, right. (UIC Science)

Aboriginal hunters from Arctic Canada have a couple of names for what they say is an extremely rare polar bear that is huge, narrow-bodied, fast-moving and lithe: “tiriarnaq” or “tigiaqpak,” meaning “weasel bear.”

Now the thawing and rapidly eroding Chukchi Sea coastal permafrost has produced evidence that one of these legendary weasel bears — or some other strange kind of bear — roamed Arctic Alaska centuries ago.

A huge, fully intact and unusually shaped polar bear skull emerged in 2014 from an eroding archaeological site about 13 miles southwest of Utqiaġvik (Barrow).

It is one of the biggest polar bear skulls ever found — and quite different from most modern polar bear skulls. It is slender, elongated in the back and has unusual structural features around the nasal area and other areas.

“It looks different from your average polar bear,” said Anne Jensen, an Utqiaġvik-based archaeologist who has been leading excavation and research programs in the region.

Through radiocarbon dating and subsequent analysis, Jensen and her colleagues estimate that the big bear skull — which appears to be the fourth largest ever found — is from a period between the years 670 and 800. It is possibly the oldest complete polar bear skull found in Alaska, inspiring a name for the departed creature that owned it: The Old One.

Exactly what accounts for its differences is yet to be determined; genetic testing is needed for that, Jensen said. It could have been a member of a subspecies or a member of a different “race” in genetic terms — similar to the varying breeds that are found among dogs — or possibly something else entirely, said Jensen, who works for the science department of the Native village corporation, Ukpeaġvik Iñupiat Corp., or UIC.

These details, and those from the document referred to in the story (see citation below, pgs. 129-131, from which the map below comes), suggests these ‘weasel bears’ might simply reflect individual variation in body size and type that is more noticeable in lean animals. In other words, a large bear with a longer-than-average body length and long narrow skull that might not put on visible body fat reserves until late in the feeding season.

This ‘weasel bear’ does not sound at all like a distinct subspecies or race of polar bear but rather normal individual variation within a species that has not yet been described by biologists.

Just because this body type has an Inuvialuit name that makes effective communication possible for local hunters does not make this bear type a distinct biological entity (like a subspecies, which is almost always geographically isolated). And while more information might clarify the situation, I suspect the kind of genetic testing possible from this ancient bone won’t give a satisfying answer (from a living specimen – perhaps).

Still, it’s an interesting phenomenon worth knowing and thinking about further.

Joint Secretariat. 2015. Inuvialuit and Nanuq: A Polar Bear Traditional Knowledge
Study. Joint Secretariat, Inuvialuit Settlement Region. Pdf here.

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March 20, 2017 at 04:24AM