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Report of Hudson Bay polar bear onshore in winter is rare indeed – here’s why

Report of Hudson Bay polar bear onshore in winter is rare indeed – here’s why

via polarbearsciencehttps://polarbearscience.com

Late February is still the dead of winter in the Arctic, a time when most polar bears are at their leanest and out on the sea ice trying to find seals – and that means yesterday’s report of a “very fat” polar bear onshore outside Inukjuak is unusual at face value – but my followup inquiry revealed details that make it even more startling.

bear-onshore-end-feb-2017_cbc-photo-facebook

CBC North facebook entry 27 Feb 2017

At my request, CBC North reporter Priscilla Hwang reached out to the hunter involved, who is the mayor of the community. She was told the incident took place on Saturday 25 February 2017 and the very fat bear in the story was actually a young, subadult female.

Subadults are more likely to be in poorer condition than adults at any time of year, due to their lack of hunting experience and competition with adult males. So to see a young bear that’s very fat before the feeding begins is quite astonishing: it suggests that feeding opportunities out on Hudson Bay have been very good over the winter and/or this bear was a savvy hunter despite her youth.

According to the mayor’s report, this community hasn’t had a bear onshore in nearly 30 years. Polar bears in Hudson Bay travel with the retreating ice to the western and southern shores, so with some exceptions, bears usually only have access to the east coast during winter through spring.

Last winter saw an extraordinary number of reports of bears on shore in winter, most of them causing trouble (see summary here). This Inukjuak sighting is the second I’ve come across this year – the other was in Svalbard (a female with cubs). Whether this new pattern is due to more bears or lack of hunting leading to bears having less fear of people – or a bit of both – it’s not yet possible to say.

So under the circumstances, the mayor of Inukjuak’s decision to kill this bear for the protection of the community seems quite reasonable (given the extensive resources required in Svalbard to drive their problem bears away rather than kill them).

Excerpts from the CBC story, and some maps and charts, are below.

Where’s his Coca-Cola? The story behind a polar bear who crashed in a Nunavik cabin (CBC North, Priscilla Hwang, Mar 01, 2017 2:23 PM) [my bold]:

[Note that although the hunter, Mayor Pauloosie Kasudluak, refers to the bear as “he” in this interview, followup revealed the bear was actually a young female]

The mayor of Inukjuak, Que., Pauloosie Kasudluak, was on a hunting trip when he spotted the polar bear just outside his community.

“We were heading home and as we were five minutes away, I saw a polar bear running away,” recalled Kasudluak.

He began chasing it on his snowmobile while filming.

“That was the first time I saw one close to the community. It was kind of rare,” he said.

The last time Kasudluak said he heard of a polar bear around the community was nearly thirty years ago,

A few minutes into the chase, the polar bear took refuge in an unfinished cabin.

“I think it wasn’t the first time the bear went to the cabin. I think he knew where to go,” said Kasudluak. He said when community members later peeked into the cabin, they found a spot where the bear had been sleeping.

…

Kasudluak said he went home, and then visited the cabin again with his whole family to see if the bear was still there.

The “very fat” polar bear was still poking his head out of the cabin, he said.

Unfortunately, it was “a bad ending” for the polar bear who was just a fifteen minute walk away from the community, said Kasudluak, who shot the bear.

“At first I didn’t want to kill the bear, I was just taking a video of it,” he said. “After a while, when it was in the cabin, I thought that this bear may be dangerous for the people who don’t know where he is.”

Kasudluak says many people in and out of the community travel around that area, on foot and on skis. He was concerned they would be in for a surprise to find a polar bear living there.

“I thought this may be a risk for them,” he said.

See map below for the location of Inukjuak, courtesy Google maps.

inukjuak-quebec-location

Given the location of this community, the sighted bear is most likely to be part of the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation (see map at end of this post) but could also be from Foxe Basin to the north. It is unlikely to be a Western Hudson Bay bear but not impossible.

map-southernhudsonbay_lg

A typical breakup pattern on Hudson Bay occurred in 2014 (see chart below). Note the retreat of ice close to shore in the northwest AND the east coast by late June, which forces bears ashore on the southwest coast (see post on recent breakup dates here):

sea-ice-extent-canada-2014-june-20

via polarbearscience http://ift.tt/1oHvY57

March 3, 2017 at 03:53AM

Carbon Dioxide: Utterly Useless in ‘Trapping Heat’ or ‘Delaying Cooling’

Carbon Dioxide: Utterly Useless in ‘Trapping Heat’ or ‘Delaying Cooling’

via Current News – Principia Scientific Internationalhttp://principia-scientific.org

Ask a climate academic which, if ANY gas has great power to ‘trap heat’ and you will be told ‘carbon dioxide, you idiot!’ This is fake news, junk science. Ask an applied scientist the same question and you will be told, ‘no gas can trap heat – it’s physically impossible!’
‘But, but….there is 160 years of climate science (e.g. Fourier, Tyndall, etc) to say it is so!’ comes the retort from the…

Click title above to read the full article

via Current News – Principia Scientific International http://ift.tt/1kjWLPW

March 3, 2017 at 03:36AM

Reality Bites: ‘Green’ Dreamers Struggling to Spin Away South Australia’s Failed Wind Power Experiment

Reality Bites: ‘Green’ Dreamers Struggling to Spin Away South Australia’s Failed Wind Power Experiment

via Tallbloke’s Talkshophttps://tallbloke.wordpress.com

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Reality is catching up with wind power dreamers in South Australia as the public wake up to the truth – via power failures.

STOP THESE THINGS

alice_in_wonderland17 Fantastic in theory, but reality is another place.

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It’s been barely 5 months since South Australia experienced a state wide blackout on 28 September, when a typically vigorous spring storm delivered wind speeds in excess of 90km/h, causing the majority of turbines operating at its 18 wind farms to automatically shutdown to avoid self-destruction. The ensuing collapse in wind power output overloaded the interconnectors with Victoria, which tripped automatically; and thereafter South Australia suffered what is now known as a ‘system black’ (see our post here).

With a string of blackouts during December (see our post here) and mass load shedding during a heat wave when, yet again, wind power output plummeted (see our post here), humour among South Australians is now a rare and treasured commodity.

Inversely related to South Australians’ fury at their power pricing and supply calamity, is the battle that the wind…

View original post 1,421 more words

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop http://ift.tt/1WIzElD

March 3, 2017 at 03:24AM

The Second Coming Of U.S. Shale Is Challenging OPEC

The Second Coming Of U.S. Shale Is Challenging OPEC

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)http://www.thegwpf.com

After a two-year downturn spurred by oil’s plunge to $26 from $100, U.S. production is on the rise once again. “Today, almost every single shale basin is economic in the $35-$50 a barrel price range.”

Pump jacks are seen next to a canal in an oil field over the Monterey Shale formation where gas and oil extraction using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the verge of a boom in this 2014 file photo.
David McNew, Getty Images: Pump jacks are seen next to a canal in an oil field over the Monterey Shale formation where gas and oil extraction using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the verge of a boom in this 2014 file photo.

When the who’s who of the oil industry met a year ago in Houston, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister had harsh words for U.S. shale drillers struggling with the worst price crash in a generation.

“Lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate,” said Ali Naimi, who managed the world’s largest oil-exporting business for more than two decades.

In the year since, the drillers have largely taken Naimi’s advice. While more than 100 have gone bankrupt since the start of 2015, the companies that survived have reshaped themselves into fitter, leaner and faster versions that can thrive with oil at $50 a barrel. Now, it’s OPEC that’s seeking solutions, desperate to drive prices up even further in a push to repair the economies of the countries it serves.

“The shale business is rejuvenated because of the difficulties it has been through,” Ben van Beurden, the chief executive officer of Royal Dutch Shell, said in comments last month.

After a two-year downturn spurred by oil’s plunge to $26 from $100, U.S. production is on the rise once again, opening the door for another showdown with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The number of U.S. drilling rigs has grown 91 percent to 602 in just over nine months. Meanwhile, production has gained more than 550,000 barrels a day since the summer, rising above 9 million barrels a day for the first time since April.

And as shale returns with a vengeance, it’s not just the pioneer cowboys that dominated the first phase of the revolution in the Bakken of North Dakota. This time, ExxonMobil and other major oil groups are joining the rush. It’s a new reality that OPEC and Russia — the main forces behind the production cuts approved last year as a solution to re-balance the global market — are starting to acknowledge.

“With $55 a barrel, we see everyone very happy in the U.S.,” said Didier Casimiro, a senior executive at Moscow-based Rosneft.

Long a world leader in multi-billion dollar oil developments that take years to build and even longer to profit, Exxon is diverting about one-third of its drilling budget this year to shale fields that will deliver cash flow in as little as three years, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said this week. In January, Exxon agreed to pay as much as $6.6 billion in an acquisition designed to more than double the company’s footprint in the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico, the most fertile U.S. shale field.

Add to the mix the election of President Donald Trump, carrying the promise of fewer regulations, added pipelines and energy independence, and you see why the mood at CERAWeek, the conference that every year gathers oil executives, bankers and investors in Houston, will be far brighter next week than in 2016.

“North American oil companies are going to increase their spending by 25 percent in 2017 compared to last year,” said Daniel Yergin, the oil historian-cum-consultant who hosts the CERAWeek. “The increase reflects the magnetism of U.S. shale.”

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded at $52.79 a barrel on Friday. Futures bounced between $51.22 and $54.94 in February.

So far this year, U.S. energy companies have raised $10.5 billion in fresh equity, with shale and oil service groups drawing the most investment, the best start of the year since at least 1999 and equal to a third of what the sector raised in the whole of 2015.

In Midland, the Texas city at the center of the Permian basin, the activity rush is palpable, as is the threat of higher costs for shale companies. The county’s active-rig total ranks second in the U.S., behind only Reeves County further to the west.

“You could see the town’s energy is back,” said Alan Means, founder of Cambrian Management Ltd., a Midland-based firm that operates more than 200 oil wells in the Permian across Texas and New Mexico. “The rigs are up again, the fracking crews are busier and the highway traffic is increasing.”

As activity rises, the man-camps in the town outskirts are flush again, with workers arriving from the Bakken in Montana and North Dakota, and from as far way as Canada. The 1,000-bed Permian Lodging camp is now 100 percent full, up from 65 percent in July, according to camp owner Ralph McIngvale.

It’s not just more activity. The growth is also the result of far more efficient ways to drill than existed only two years earlier. With oil companies benefiting from lower service costs, Shell reckons it can drill a well today for about $5.5 million, down a whopping 56 percent from 2013. And the new wells, thanks to more powerful fracking techniques, are yielding more barrels than ever.

The average Permian well now gushes 668 barrels per day, compared to just 98 barrels four years ago, according to government data.

Full story

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

March 3, 2017 at 03:21AM