Category: Uncategorized

June Arctic Ice Report

June Arctic Ice Report

via Science Matters
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The extent of Arctic ice fell to a new wintertime low in March 2017. But springtime ice persisted and in June is hanging around the decadal average.

 

The first half of June this year’s extent was above the decadal average despite early melting in Bering and Okhotsk Seas,  Those two Pacific basins are now ice-free, typical for end of June.  Presently 2017 is tied with 2016 and 2007 about 200k km2 below average.  The recent drop was largely due to Hudson Bay going to open water in just ten days (images at Ten Days in Hudson Bay).

For the month, average extent in 2017 was 11M km2 compared to the the decadal average of 10.9M km2, ranking this year fifth since 2006.  SII 2017 average for June was 10.7M km2 and is presently showing 200k km2 less ice than MASIE does with its higher resolution.  During June more than 2M km2 ice extent was lost and presently stands at 65% of the March maximum.

The Table compares 2017 day 181 ice extents with the decadal average and 2007.

Region 2017181 Day 181
Average
2017-Ave. 2007181 2017-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 9620537 9846173 -225636 9672969 -52433
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 855383 920779 -65397 939209 -83826
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 614011 743161 -129151 670088 -56077
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 926510 1029639 -103129 901963 24547
 (4) Laptev_Sea 788796 734392 54403 658742 130053
 (5) Kara_Sea 585573 563477 22096 657478 -71904
 (6) Barents_Sea 177110 112663 64447 130101 47010
 (7) Greenland_Sea 575056 518393 56663 548399 26657
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 489797 497536 -7739 450461 39336
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 775934 777916 -1982 773611 2323
 (10) Hudson_Bay 585228 705394 -120166 718441 -133212
 (11) Central_Arctic 3245272 3210630 34642 3218999 26273
 (12) Bering_Sea 0 11808 -11808 981 -981
 (13) Baltic_Sea 0 6 -6 0 0
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 695 18917 -18222 2983 -2288

The pattern continues with seas on the Pacific side showing deficits to average, while Atlantic Arctic seas show surpluses.  Bering and Okhotsk averages are still 30k km2 higher but will soon disappear.  The noticeable deficits are in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) and in Hudson Bay.

Barents Sea shows a surplus of 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year continues to be above average matching the record year of 2014.

 

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.  It may yet beat out 2014 as the highest in the last 11 years.

 

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

 

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July 2, 2017 at 08:49AM

Letter from Phillip Williamson

Letter from Phillip Williamson

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

TheTelegraph have published the following letter today from Phillip Williamson, in response to Booker’s column last week:

 

SIR – Christopher Booker is right to question whether busy airports provide suitable locations for weather stations, particularly for temperature extremes (“Nice heatwave, but June 1878 was hotter”, June 25).

However, his historical analysis fails to mention that 57 per cent of worldwide highs were recorded since 2000, causing many thousands of fatalities. More than half the global population is likely to be at risk from deadly heat in the decades ahead.

Reliable records of ocean warming have existed since the Sixties. These show that the seas are warming from surface to sea floor, soaking up almost all of the extra heat retained by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the rate of the rise in the sea level is, unfortunately, accelerating – even if Mr Booker says it isn’t.

Dr Phillip Williamson
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia, Norwich

 

 

Unfortunately the letter is highly misleading.

I will deal with the first section later, but first let’s examine his claim that sea level rise is accelerating.

As I pointed out in my post last week, a recent paper found that the GMSL rose with the rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr during 1993–2003 and started decelerating since 2004 to a rate of 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.

http://ift.tt/2s6o1Is

 

In other words, sea level rise is back to the 20thC average and has actually been decelerating, if you want to cherry pick such short periods.

 

We also know from the IPCC that sea levels between 1920 & 1950 were rising at a similar rate to 1993-2010

 

It is clear these things go in cycles, and it is grossly misleading to draw trends from the upward part. For instance, New York:

http://ift.tt/2svmCPY

 

 

I will be writing to the Telegraph letters column to inform its readers of the real facts

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July 2, 2017 at 08:03AM

My Climate Forecast From Two Years Ago

My Climate Forecast From Two Years Ago

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
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I’ll bet the hottest dataset wins the biggest government grant.”

– Dr. Roy Spencer

During March of 2015, I predicted that RSS, under extreme pressure from the climate mafia,  would alter their data to match the fraudulent surface temperature data sets.

Look for the satellite data to be adjusted to bring it into compliance with the fully fraudulent surface temperatures. The Guardian is now working to discredit UAH, so it seems likely that RSS will soon be making big changes – to match the needs of the climate mafia. Bookmark this post.

RSSChanges

March 27, 2015

This has occurred, exactly as I predicted – and it was announced by surface temperature fraudster Zeke Hausfather, who has no expertise in satellite data.

Climate change sceptics suffer blow as satellite data correction shows 140% faster global warming | The Independent

The only two people who were qualified to review this data tampering by RSS, Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy, were not consulted and the changes were not submitted for peer review to them.  This is very severe malfeasance, and standard practice for climate scientists. Their job is to push global warming, not do science.

Here are Dr. Spencer’s predictions from January, 2017.

“I expect there will soon be a revised TLT product from RSS which shows enhanced warming, too.

Here’s what I’m predicting:

1) neither John Christy nor I will be asked to review the paper

2) it will quickly sail through peer review (our UAH V6 paper is still not in print nearly 1 year after submission)

3) it will have many authors, including climate model people and the usual model pundits (e.g. Santer), which will supposedly lend legitimacy to the new data adjustments.

Let’s see how many of my 3 predictions come true.

-Roy”

Roy Spencer’s Prediction | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

Zeke claimed the data sets are independent, but when called out for fraudulent adjustments by Senator Malcolm Roberts, Gavin Schmidt of NASA stated very clearly last year that the data is from NOAA, not NASA.

robertsnasags.pdf

Zeke is lying about data independence. All of the surface data sets use the essentially the same base set of low quality and incomplete stations from NOAA. Berkeley Earth adds more even lower quality stations.

Furthermore, NASA data sets don’t even agree with NASA data sets from a few years ago. Via data tampering, NASA has doubled 1880-1999 warming since the year 2000.

Data.GISS: GISTEMP HISTORY

In 2009, Phil Jones from CRU admitted that much of his global temperature data is fake.

date: Wed Apr 15 14:29:03 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
to: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>

Tom,

The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue
of many more drifters providing measurements over the last
5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where
we didn’t have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is very little ship data there.

Cheers
Phil

http://ift.tt/2f9Cm2M

NOAA has very little temperature data for much of the Earth’s surface, so they simply make temperatures up. For example, in December they claimed record heat in Africa, based on zero thermometer readings.

NOAA Claimed . NOAA Measured

There were no thermometer readings in the region they claimed record heat. Difficult to imagine how scientific fraud could get any worse than that.

Satellites showed that temperatures in central Africa were close to average in December.

Climate scientists needed to get rid of the satellite data, because it wrecked their multi-billion dollar scam.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Until a few days ago, RSS stated very clearly that measured troposphere temperatures were outside the range of climate models.

Climate Analysis | Remote Sensing Systems

This was unacceptable to the climate mafia, so they convinced Carl Mears to come into compliance. His new data set is in compliance with the demands of the climate mafia, and protects him from further harassment.

Climate Analysis | Remote Sensing Systems

In December of 2015, Ted Cruz held a Senate hearing about data tampering with the surface temperature record. In this hearing, he pointed out that the surface temperature record did not match satellite temperatures.

Ever since then, Carl Mears at RSS has been under extreme pressure to corrupt his data and bring it in line with the fraudulent surface temperature data sets. It was inevitable that he would buckle.

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July 2, 2017 at 07:23AM

Onshore Wind and Solar Power Generate Miniscule Amounts Of Power In England

Onshore Wind and Solar Power Generate Miniscule Amounts Of Power In England

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

 

I wandered lonely as a cloud

That floats on high o’er vales and hills,

When all at once I saw a crowd,

A host, of golden wi-ind mills

 

Whenever anybody complains about the English countryside being littered with wind farms and solar panels, the renewable lobby usually come back with the claim that renewable energy is supplying a quarter of our electricity.

Technically this is true, but it does not tell the whole story.

In fact, hydro and biomass account for 11%, nearly as much as wind and solar combined.

 

image

However, if we look at the specifics of onshore wind and solar power, the things that really impact the countryside, the situation in England is drastically different.

Last year, onshore wind and solar generated 5.9 and 9.2 TWh respectively, out of a total generation of 254.7 TWh. In other words, only 5.9%.

Regardless of the cost in subsidies, which are huge, can anybody honestly say that such a tiny amount of energy is worth the environmental destruction?

 

 

 

Source

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July 2, 2017 at 05:03AM