Category: Uncategorized

Argentina – More than a meter of snow

Argentina – More than a meter of snow

via Ice Age Now
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Residents isolated. No electricity, no gas, no firewood, no clean water, and 20 degrees below zero.

24 June 2017 – Northeast of Rio Negro is a plateau some 1000 km (600 miles) long, dotted with a few villages that seem to live in another time.  Here in the last ten days it snowed a meter (39 inches) of snow. More than 200 families were isolated. No electricity, gas, firewood or clean water.

Temperatures dropped to minus 20 degrees. And the outlook is not good, with forecasts calling for more snow, rain and cold as a glacier in coming days.

The government of Río Negro, along with municipalities, Volunteer Firefighters and Civil Defense, organized a rescue operation to cover the needs of about 250 families living in very isolated places.

The people here remember the great snowfall of 1984, which took 95% of the animals of the desert region of Rio Negro. Somehow, the residents recovered.

They also remember that before the Puyehue volcano erupted in 2011, there were 710,000 cattle in the Comallo area alone. Then the ashes came. By January 2012 only 60,000 animals survived.

“With the ashes the sheep were feeding and in a while they exploded in blood like balloons. It was because they ate the material of the volcano that was pure glass, “recalls Ramiro Hermosilla, born and raised in the locality.

Again, the inhabitants of northern Patagonia rose to the challenge. Little by little their herds have increased. Today in the vicinity of Comallo graze 200 thousand animals. But the South Line again is going through a critical period.

(Note: I have taken great liberties with my translation. You may want to read the original articles for yourself.)

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Thanks to Argriris Diamantis for these links


The post Argentina – More than a meter of snow appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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June 26, 2017 at 07:23PM

California dumps millions of dollars of unusable renewable electricity to other states

California dumps millions of dollars of unusable renewable electricity to other states

via Watts Up With That?
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Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

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California’s renewable energy policy pushing huge mandated increases in wind and solar so the state’s globally irrelevant greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets can be met has it’s citizens providing and paying millions of dollars for unusable renewable energy to be sent to other states – and this problem will likely only grow in the future.

An article in the L A. Times headlines:

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Nor does the Times article expect such renewable energy dumping to stop in the future:

“Solar and wind power production was curtailed a relatively small amount — about 3% in the first quarter of 2017 — but that’s more than double the same period last year. And the surge in solar power could push the number even higher in the future.”

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The Times article suggests one reason for this bizarre outcome is as follows:

“The answer, in part, is that the state has achieved dramatic success in increasing renewable energy production in recent years. But it also reflects sharp conflicts among major energy players in the state over the best way to weave these new electricity sources into a system still dominated by fossil-fuel-generated power.”

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The Times article notes that environmental and renewable energy advocates claim state regulators and utilities are approving and building more fossil plants which is contributing to these problems and demand that this be stopped.

However regulators and utilities note that:

“the transition from fossil fuel power to renewable energy is complicated and that overlap is unavoidable.

They note that electricity demand fluctuates — it is higher in summer in California, because of air conditioning, and lower in the winter — so some production capacity inevitably will be underused in the winter. Moreover, the solar power supply fluctuates as well. It peaks at midday, when the sunlight is strongest. Even then it isn’t totally reliable.

Because no one can be sure when clouds might block sunshine during the day, fossil fuel electricity is needed to fill the gaps. Utility officials note that solar production is often cut back first because starting and stopping natural gas plants is costlier and more difficult than shutting down solar panels.”

However elsewhere in the Times article the complex issues of California’s electric system grid reliability and stability are finally but only briefly acknowledged:

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The Times article fails to adequately address many electric system grid reliability and stability issues that must be provided by dispatchable fossil, hydro and nuclear generation resources to maintain effective, dependable and continuous electric system operation.

Furthermore the Times article also fails to mention key limitations of renewable energy resources that are critical to electric system grid operation including regulating margin, spinning reserves, standby reserves, frequency stabilization and black start capabilities all of which are mandatory for successful and reliable operation of an electric system grid.

These unmentioned electric system grid requirements unprovided by renewable energy resources will be definitive in dictating that under times of energy surplus renewable energy resources must be curtailed or shutdown to preserve electric system reliable operation capabilities.

A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) addressed electric system grid requirements which renewable energy resources fail to provide and noted the following with regard to these limitations:

“Reliable operation of the grid involves myriad challenges beyond just matching total generation to total load. Its role in cascading failures and blackouts illustrates the important role of the transmission system (22). Reliable grid operation is further complicated by its ac nature, with real and reactive power flows and the need to closely maintain a constant frequency (23). Margins for generator failures must be provided through operational and planning reserves (24).”

California’s need to dump millions of dollars of excess renewable energy now and in the future is the result of the politically contrived climate alarmist schemes lead by Governor Brown and Senate Leader Kevin de Leon that reflect ignorance of how the state’s electric system grid reliability and stability must be maintained and the key fact that renewable energy resources are unable to provide these ignored requirements.

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June 26, 2017 at 06:30PM

Cosmic Rays Increase, Solar Cycle Approaches Minimum

Cosmic Rays Increase, Solar Cycle Approaches Minimum

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

The sun is currently featuring one lonely visible sunspot region and this relatively blank look is becoming more and more common as solar cycle 24 heads towards the next solar minimum.

The latest image of the sun features only one visible sunspot region.  The sun has been completely blank almost one-quarter of the time this year as it heads towards the next solar minimum; courtesy NASA

The latest image of the sun features only one visible sunspot region.  The sun has been completely blank almost one-quarter of the time this year as it heads towards the next solar minimum; courtesy NASA

In fact, there have been 42 days in 2017 with a completely blank sun – already ten more days than all of last year – and this makes up almost one-quarter of the time for this year. Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906. In fact, by one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this can have many important consequences.

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Brussels, Belgium. Last day shown: 31 May 2017. Courtesy climate4you.com

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Brussels, Belgium. Last day shown: 31 May 2017. Courtesy climate4you.com

Cosmic rays

Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from space that impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Most of the incoming cosmic ray particles are protons and they actually arrive as individual particles – not in the form of a ray as the term “ray” would suggest. Usually, cosmic rays are held at bay by the sun’s magnetic field and its solar winds sweep them aside when they pass by Earth.  As the sun plunges towards a minimum phase, there is typically less and less solar activity (e.g., solar storms, coronal mass ejections), and the weakening magnetic field and solar wind provides less and less shielding for the Earth.

New evidence of an increase in stratospheric radiation

One way to monitor cosmic ray penetration into the Earth’s upper atmosphere is to measure stratospheric radiation over an extended period of time.  “Spaceweather.com” has led an effort for more than two years to monitor radiation levels in the stratosphere over California with frequent high-altitude helium balloon flights.  These balloons contain sensors which detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV and are produced by the crash of primary cosmic rays into Earth’s atmosphere. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.  The findings confirm the notion that indeed cosmic rays have been steadily increasing over California as solar cycle 24 heads towards the next solar minimum. In fact, there has been a 13% increase of stratospheric radiation over California from March 2015 to May 2017.

The trend of stratospheric radiation as measured over New England and California since 2015 in an effort sponsored by "Spaceweather.com"; courtesy spaceweather.com

The trend of stratospheric radiation as measured over New England and California since 2015 in an effort sponsored by “Spaceweather.com”; courtesy spaceweather.com

The monitoring of stratospheric radiation by “Spaceweather.com” has now been extended to New England and their findings not only show the same kind of cosmic ray increase is happening as over California, but at an even higher rate.  Balloons have been flown over Maine and New Hampshire four times since 2015 – most recently on June 15th, 2017 – and though the data are sparse compared to the much more frequently sampled US west coast, the results are pretty clear. Stratospheric radiation has increased over New England by 19% in this time period compared to the 13% increase seen over California.  This difference seen between California and New England suggests the Earth’s magnetic field provides different levels of protection in different areas of the planet.

The connection of cosmic rays to clouds
Some researchers have held the belief that cosmic rays hitting Earth’s atmosphere create aerosols which, in turn, seed clouds and thereby help in the formation of clouds.  This would make cosmic rays an important player in weather and climate. A study  published in the August 2016 issue of Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics supports the idea of an important connection between cosmic rays and clouds.

According to “Spaceweather.com”, a team of scientists from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked sudden decreases in cosmic rays to changes in Earth’s cloud cover. These rapid decreases in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity are known as “Forbush Decreases” and tend to take place following coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in periods of high solar activity. When the sun is active (i.e., solar storms, CMEs), the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeps some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth.  In periods of low solar activity, more cosmic rays bombard the earth.  The term “Forbush Decrease” was named after the American physicist Scott E. Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the 1930s and 1940s. The research team led by Jacob Svensmark of DTU identified the strongest 26 “Forbush Decreases” between 1987 and 2007, and looked at ground-based and satellite records of cloud cover to see what happened.  In a recent press release, their conclusions were summarized as follows: “[Strong “Forbush Decreases”] cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tons of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.”

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

June 26, 2017 at 04:53PM

UK must face up to falling road emissions to avoid £23bn tax gap

UK must face up to falling road emissions to avoid £23bn tax gap

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Green Sand

 

The Telegraph has finally woken up to a problem I was warning about four years ago!

 

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The UK Government risks sleepwalking into a £23bn tax black hole by failing to face up to the fiscal impact of tackling road transport emissions.

The new parliament plans to put legislation in place to upgrade the UK’s infrastructure to help increase the number of autonomous and electric vehicles on British roads. But a new report from right-leaning think tank Policy Exchange has warned that the Treasury could find a gap in its expected tax revenue unless the shift to cleaner vehicles is part of an overarching Government strategy.

 

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“The Government needs to recognise the fiscal implications of cleaning up road transport. Our analysis suggests that if carbon targets are met, fuel duty receipts could be £9bn-£23bn lower in 2030 than the Government is currently assuming,” said Richard Howard, an author on the Policy Exchange report.

The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has estimated that fuel duty receipts could increase from £28bn a year to around £40bn by 2030.

But Policy Exchange said fuel duty tax receipts would be as low as £17bn-£31bn by the end of the next decade – or £9bn-£23bn lower than the OBR is banking on – if the legislated carbon targets are met. Mr Howard said the OBR and Department for Transport are working off completely different projections for emissions than the Committee on Climate Change.

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It is significant that they highlight the discrepancy between the OBR and CCC assumptions.

In my view, the CCC are living in cloud cuckoo land if they really think that millions of drivers are going to be driving electric cars in ten years time. There is simply nothing that electric cars can currently offer that will attract more than a handful of eco loons, and it is hard to see that changing in such a short space of time.

And although the government talks the talk, as far as CO2 emissions go, they are hardly likely to walk the walk when they stand to lose tens of billions in tax revenue.

But just assuming the CCC are right, where will the government make good the lost tax revenue?

Taxing electric cars? If they do, nobody will buy them.

Taxing electricity? A non starter.

Raising other taxes? A guaranteed vote loser.

Road tolls? Again, this would be massively unpopular.

 

I expect the government will still be kicking the can down the road ten years from now.

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June 26, 2017 at 04:33PM