Category: Uncategorized

Last Chance Hotel: Australia’s Energy Crisis at the Crossroads

Last Chance Hotel: Australia’s Energy Crisis at the Crossroads

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*** Australia’s energy crisis is a self-inflicted calamity with no apparent end in sight. The PM, Malcolm Turnbull seems intent on protecting his son, Alex’s investment in Australia’s most notorious wind power outfit, Infigen (see our post here). While his gormless Energy Minister, Josh Frydenberg behaves like a punch-drunk boxer, who cannot land a punch … Continue reading Last Chance Hotel: Australia’s Energy Crisis at the Crossroads

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June 6, 2017 at 07:32PM

BJORN LOMBORG BACKS TRUMP’S DECISION ON LEAVING PARIS ACCORD

BJORN LOMBORG BACKS TRUMP’S DECISION ON LEAVING PARIS ACCORD

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This article confirms that Bjorn Lomborg, the self-styled Skeptical Environmentalist, believes that it is foolhardy and foolish for world leaders to stay fixated on Paris – not only will it likely falter, but it will be hugely costly and do almost nothing to fix climate change.

Here is a good piece on Lomborg’s calculations (peer-reviewed) on the actual effectiveness of the Paris accord on limiting future temperature rises.

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June 6, 2017 at 06:30PM

Direct Use of Natural Gas: Unshackle Efficiency from Obama’s ‘Deep Decarbonization’ (Part 1)

Direct Use of Natural Gas: Unshackle Efficiency from Obama’s ‘Deep Decarbonization’ (Part 1)

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“What Secretary Perry has yet to recognize is that the same hostile forces behind the ‘war against coal’ are now focused on eliminating the direct use of natural gas…. By taking a fresh look at the economic importance of natural gas direct use, this path can be changed; assuming the political will exists to do the right thing by consumers.”

Nationwide, natural gas is distributed to over 73.5 million homes and businesses for a wide variety of uses, such as cooking, water and home heating. [1] In doing so, it delivers 38% more energy [2] for 15% of the costs of electricity. [3] Natural gas energy losses are only about 10 percent of its usable energy from the point of wellhead extraction to the consumers’ utility meter. For electricity, about 70% of initial energy content is lost by the time it reaches consumer’s electric meters.

Additionally, direct use of natural gas represents approximately a two-thirds reduction in overall energy use and emissions, even when including the expanded use of natural gas in electricity generation.  The direct use of natural gas also saves consumers an estimated $479 billion per year in utility costs relative to electricity while alleviating unnecessary expenses for “improving” the electric grid.

These savings are expected to increase as electric utilities increase rates; in large part, due to the addition of high-cost renewable resources and grid investments to market these resources.

In spite of its benefits, the direct use of natural gas has been targeted for replacement by electricity under the unproven and illogical assumption that renewable energy can do it all; and do it affordably. However, natural gas consumption would still be required for electric utilities to back-up and balance intermittent forms of electricity provided by wind and solar.

Since the beginning of the Obama Administration, starting with his first State of the Union address, his energy policies were myopically focused upon “clean energy” with no apparent concern for affordability or economic impact.  If natural gas was used to generate electricity, it was considered “clean” since it enabled use of renewables.

However, if natural gas was used directly by consumers, it wasn’t “clean” regardless of providing nearly 3 times the overall efficiency.  Towards the end of the Obama Administration, “clean energy” policies gave way to even more radical theories of “deep decarbonization” that would basically end consumer use of natural gas, among other outcomes, by electrifying everything.

With the Trump Administration, there is now an increased emphasis on an “all the above” energy policy, and interest in affordability and reliability. But so far, “all the above” is mainly being applied to the diversity of energy sources for electric generation; or so at least it appears. If diversity of energy sources to generate electricity is desirable, so should energy alternatives to electricity be desirable.

Regardless of how diverse generation is, there is still only one way to deliver electricity. The vast majority of electrical outages experienced by consumers ae due to problems with transmission and distribution wires, not generators. That will not change with a push towards more renewables. Just as biological diversity strengthens ecosystems; energy diversity, including delivery mechanisms, strengthens economic systems.

Review of Trump Energy Policies … 

On April 14, 2017, the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) new Secretary, Rick Perry, issued instructions for a study titled “Examining Electricity Markets and Reliability.” Almost immediately, the “loyal opposition” representing renewable energy took offense and engaged their propaganda machine. ThinkProgress was among the first to react and stated this study “was clearly meant as a swipe at wind and solar energy resources.”

On April 19, 2017, Secretary Perry spoke at a meeting of the National Coal Council and succinctly reiterated the rationale for the study: “The experience is we’re seeing this decreased diversity in our nation’s electric generation mix.”  In other words, the purpose of this study is to ascertain if electric generation diversity is being compromised by too much renewables.

On April 25, 2017, Secretary Perry spoke at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance summit and further elaborated: “These politically driven policies —driven primarily by hostility toward coal—threaten the reliability and the stability of the greatest electrical grid in the world.”

What Secretary Perry has yet to recognize is that the same hostile forces behind the “war against coal” are now focused on eliminating the direct use of natural gas.  The purpose of this article is to examine what brought our country to the precipice of an all-electric energy monoculture and why this leap of faith should be rejected. By taking a fresh look at the economic importance of natural gas direct use, this path can be changed; assuming the political will exists to do the right thing by consumers.

… vs. Obama Energy Policies

The first glimpse of President Obama’s bias against natural gas direct use was revealed in his first State of the Union Address.  In it, natural gas was deemed “clean energy” when consumed in electric power plants to generate electricity.  Apparently, however, if used directly by consumers, such consumption was not considered “clean,” thus the “clean energy” moniker did not apply, thus strongly implying natural gas direct use was not “clean.”

On March 19, 2015, President Obama Issued Executive Order (EO)13693; titled “Planning for Federal Sustainability in the Next Decade.” As the name implies, this EO basically ordered Federal Agencies to get on board with Obama’s “clean energy” agenda. This EO, which has not been overturned by President Trump, calls for phasing out fossil fuel consumption in a manner that holds natural gas direct use to a much higher standard than electricity. This occurs at Section 3 (a) (i) of the EO as follows:

(i) reducing agency building energy intensity measured in British thermal units per gross square foot by 2.5 percent annually through the end of fiscal year 2025, relative to the baseline of the agency’s building energy use in fiscal year 2015…

As it pertains to DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), EO 13693 only reinforced what EERE has been doing for decades; favoring electricity.  This has been done even at the expense of increases in fuel use brought about by those very policies.

What the Obama Administration failed to realize is that our nation fares much better when the federal government places an emphasis on clean, affordable, and abundant energy; while keeping out of the business of picking winners and losers.  Executive Order 13693 is another opportunity for President Trump to eliminate an Executive Branch anti carbon-based (and biased) policy. Tomorrow’s post will expand on this theme, that the direct use of natural gas delivers economic, energy and reliability benefits to the American consumer, in line with the President’s America First Energy policy:

 The Trump Administration is committed to energy policies that lower costs for hardworking Americans and maximize the use of American resources, freeing us from dependence on foreign oil.

—————–

[1] Per the DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), for 2015, the three major sectors of gas consumers consisted of 67,873,861 residential consumers, 5,449,180 commercial consumers and 188,585 industrial consumers for a total of 73,511,626 consumers.

[2] Source:  EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017, Energy Consumption in 2015

[3] Source:  EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.3, Revenue from Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers

————–

Mark Krebs, an engineer by training, has been involved with energy efficiency design and program evaluation for more than thirty years. He has served as an expert witness in dozens of energy-efficiency filings, which he summarized in a Public Utilities Fortnightly article, “It’s a War Out There: A Gas Man Questions Electric Efficiency” (December 1996).

Tom Tanton is Director with Energy and Environmental Legal Institute. Mr. Tanton has 40 years in energy and environmental policy, focused on enabling technology choice and economic development. Mr. Tanton has testified to numerous state Legislatures and Congress as an expert on energy policy. He formerly served as Principal Policy Advisor at the California Energy Commission.

The post Direct Use of Natural Gas: Unshackle Efficiency from Obama’s ‘Deep Decarbonization’ (Part 1) appeared first on Master Resource.

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June 6, 2017 at 06:20PM

Solar Update June 2017–the sun is slumping and headed even lower

Solar Update June 2017–the sun is slumping and headed even lower

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Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity thus far, likely the lowest in 100 years.

Guest essay by David Archibald

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Figure 1: F10.7 Flux 2014 – 2017

The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.

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Figure 2: F10.7 Flux of Solar Cycles 19 to 24 aligned on month of minimum

Solar Cycle 24 is sitting at the lower bound of activity for solar cycles back to 1964, the start of Solar Cycle 19. From here to minimum though, it looks like Solar Cycle 24 will have much lower volatility than the solar cycles that preceded it.

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Figure 3: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2017

According to Svensmark’s theory, the neutron flux, with its effect on cloud cover and thus the Earth’s albedo, is one of the bigger climate drivers. For Solar Cycle 24, the neutron flux duly turned around and starting rising again in 2015, one year after solar maximum. It is a safe bet that the neutron flux is heading for a record high at solar minimum (+ one year) relative to the instrumental record.

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Figure 4: Oulu Neutron Count aligned on month of solar minimum

The last weak solar cycle was Solar Cycle 20 which caused the 1970s Cooling Period. From the same stage in that cycle the neutron count flattened out to minimum. That could happen for Solar Cycle 24 but it is more likely to keep rising to minimum as 23 did and thus we can expect a count, at the end, of over 7,000.

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Figure 5: F10.7 Flux and Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2017

If we conflate the F10.7 flux and the Oulu neutron count inverted, that shows they tracked each other closely up to 2004. Something changed in 2004 and since then the neutron count has been higher relative to its previously established correlation with the F10.7 flux.

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Figure 6: Ap Index 1932 – 2017

Figure 6 shows that what changed in 2004 was the magnetic output of the Sun, shown in this instance by the Ap Index. Prior to that, there seemed to be a floor of activity at solar minima, just as the floor of activity for the F10.7 flux is 64. Three years to minimum and the Sun is now back to that level.

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Figure 7: Solar Polar Field Strength 1976 – 2017

The best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle is the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. Figure 7, from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, shows that the solar polar magnetic fields at minimum have been weakening with each successive cycle.

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Figure 8: Solar Polar Field Strength aligned on minimum strength at solar maximum

Solar Cycle 25 started from the blocks looking like it was going to be very weak and fulfill the prophecies of those predicting a Maunder-like experience for the 2020s. Then after a couple of years it caught up with Solar Cycle 24. Looking back over the previous three cycles, the solar polar field strength at this stage, three years before minimum, has been close to the value at minimum. On that assumption, Solar Cycle 25’s amplitude is likely to be two thirds of that of Solar Cycle 24, and thus 60. Further climatic cooling is therefore in store.

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Figure 9: Sunspot Area 1985 – 2016

NASA has deigned to give us another nine months of sunspot area data by hemisphere, up to September 2016. The strong asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres continues. The fact that the hemispheric peaks of the last three cycles align indicate that there is a multi-decadal force operating in the vertical dimension. The chance that two sets of three points line up exactly by themselves is infinitesimal.

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Figure 10: Hemispheric Sunspot Area and F10.7 Flux

As shown by Figure 10, total sunspot area tracks the F10.7 flux closely.


David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

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June 6, 2017 at 05:17PM