OPEC Doubles Down on its Losing Hand

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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The oil cartel OPEC and a collection of ten other petrostates recommitted themselves to a plan to cut production this week.

The FT reports:

The agreement hammered out in Vienna on Thursday will see the 1.8m barrel a day cuts, first agreed in November, extended to the end of the first quarter of 2018. Russia and other non-Opec countries have signed up to the deal, Suhail al Mazrouei, the oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, told the Financial Times. “Everyone is in agreement,” he said.

These petrostates decided on a production cut last November that would last through the first six months of 2017, and this new extension, agreed upon in Vienna during OPEC’s semiannual meeting, will require those limits on output to continue another nine months, through March of next year.

But if the goal of this market intervention was to reduce an oversupply and set off a price rebound, why has Brent crude fallen nearly 5 percent in trading since the announcement? The WSJ has an idea:

A longer period of the same level of production disappointed investors in part because of the widely held expectation that U.S. shale will continue to ramp up, keeping supply high and dampening prices. […]

That means U.S. shale may emerge as the deal’s biggest beneficiary, a reality that highlights the pressure on the two massive players, Saudi Arabia and Russia, to extend their output agreement—even though so far it hasn’t significantly lifted prices or drained a global oversupply of petroleum.

This won’t come as a surprise to our regular readers. We’ve been making the case for many months now that the biggest beneficiary of this production cut agreement hasn’t been its organizers, but the upstart competitors that necessitated it: American shale companies. While these oil regimes have wrung their hands about the falling price of oil and plotted ways to make the commodity more expensive, these U.S. firms have worked on bringing their operating costs down to a level that would allow them to compete in this new low-cost reality. And they’ve succeeded.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 25, 2017 at 10:03AM

The pros and cons of leaf abundance due to increased global carbon dioxide greening the Earth

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The pros and cons of leaf abundance due to increased global carbon dioxide greening the Earth

Increased leaf abundance is a double-edged sword

From the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE

This image shows the change in leaf area across the globe from 1982-2015. CREDIT Credits: Boston University/R. Myneni

A new global assessment reveals that increases in leaf abundance are causing boreal areas to warm and arid regions to cool. The results suggest that recent changes in global vegetation have had impacts on local climates that should be considered in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans. A substantial portion of the planet is greening in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrogen deposition, global warming and land use change. The increase in leafy green coverage, or leaf area index (LAI), will hold important implications for climate change feedback loops, yet quantifying these impacts on a global scale can be challenging. Here, Giovanni Forzieri and colleagues analyzed satellite data of global LAI coverage between 1982 and 2011.

Their results varied depending on the local biome, where increased LAI in boreal regions caused a reduction in surface albedo (reflection of sunlight), and thus resulted in a warming effect; in contrast, increased LAI in arid regions caused an increase in transpiration, and thus drove a cooling effect. What’s more, the authors found that these relationships between LAI and surface biophysics were amplified up to five times under extreme warm-dry and cold-wet years. They estimate that, across about 60% of the global vegetated area, greening has buffered warming by about 14%; for the remaining areas, which mostly include boreal zones, LAI trends have amplified the raise in air temperatures, leading to an additional warming of about 10%.

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The study:

May 25, 2017 in Climate News.

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May 25, 2017 at 10:00AM

Heavy snowfall buries road in Rocky Mountain National Park

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Park officials not sure when Trail Ridge Road will re-open.

24 May 2017 – The National Park Service closed Trail Ridge Road in Rocky Mountain National Park after last week’s snowstorm buried the road.

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Thanks to Andrew Stranglen for this link

The post Heavy snowfall buries road in Rocky Mountain National Park appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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May 25, 2017 at 08:55AM

22 Republican Senators Urge Trump To Pull US Out Of Paris Agreement

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and 21 other Republicans on Thursday urged President Donald Trump to follow through on his campaign pledge to pull out of the Paris climate accord.

The GOP senators sent a two-page letter to the White House saying that remaining in the international agreement signed by Trump’s predecessor pledging to reduce carbon emissions could fuel legal challenges to the administration’s push to roll back environmental regulations.

Most of the senators who signed are from states that depend on the continued burning of coal, oil and gas. That includes Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Inhofe and others who, like Trump, have suggested the scientific data showing the Earth is warming due to man-made carbon emissions is a hoax.

The letter signers account for fewer than half of Senate Republicans. A similar letter was also sent to Trump this week by attorneys general from 10 Republican-led states, including oil-rich Texas and coal-dependent West Virginia.

Trump pledged during the presidential campaign to “renegotiate” the accord, but he has wavered on the issue since winning the presidency. His top officials have appeared divided about what to do about the 2015 deal, which was signed by nearly 200 countries.

There are also influential voices urging Trump not to ditch the Paris accord. Forty Democratic Senators sent Trump a letter earlier this week urging him to stay in, saying a withdrawal would hurt America’s credibility and influence on the world stage.

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via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 25, 2017 at 08:44AM