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Robust Natural Variability Affirmed In Global Sea Level Rise Rates – No Correlation With CO2 Forcing

Robust Natural Variability Affirmed In Global Sea Level Rise Rates – No Correlation With CO2 Forcing

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 Tide Gauge Evidence: Sea Levels 

Rose Faster Before 1950 Than Since


In recent years it has become increasingly apparent that tide gauge measurements of sea level rise often do not align with climate model expectations.

The models are predicated on the assumption that anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which have risen explosively since about 1950, are the drivers of modern sea level rise.

Evidence from observed sea level trends have not been cooperating with this narrative, however.

Tide gauges indicate there has been a substantial overall reduction in the rate of sea level rise since about 1950 rather than the expected substantial acceleration.

For example, UK oceanographer Simon Holgate reported a 29% deceleration in global sea level rise rates from the first half of the 20th century (1904-1953) to the second half (1954-2003)

Holgate, 2007    “The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr 1904–1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr 1954–2003).”

A small sampling of regional tide gauge results (SW Pacific, Japan) affirm the deceleration of sea level rise since the mid-20th century, and indicate the highest rates of sea level rise occurred before human CO2 emissions began accelerating rapidly.

Gehrels et al., 2012    “Between 1900 and 1950 relative sea level rose at an average rate of 4.2±0.1 mm/yr. During the latter half of the 20th century the reconstructed rate of relative sea-level rise was 0.7±0.6 mm/yr. Our study is consistent with a similar pattern of relative sea-level change recently reconstructed for southern New Zealand.”

Sasaki et al., 2017    “Sea level variability around Japan from 1906 to 2010 is examined using a regional ocean model, along with observational data and the CMIP5 historical simulations. The regional model reproduces observed interdecadal sea level variability, e.g., high sea level around 1950, low sea level in the 1970s, and sea level rise during the most recent three decades, along the Japanese coast. … That the wind-induced sea level rise along the Japanese coast around 1950 is as large as the recent sea level rise highlights the importance of natural variability in understanding regional sea level change on interdecadal timescales.”

A reconstruction of global-scale rates from tide gauges (Jevrejeva et al., 2008) dating back to 1700 also reveals a deceleration in the rate of sea level increase since 1950.

Jevrejeva et al., 2008


Rates Of Recent Rise For 2,133 Global-Scale Tide Gauges: 1.04 mm/year 


According to a comprehensive analysis (2,133 tide gauges) of Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data, the current (2014) global mean sea level rise rate is a little more than 1 mm/year.

Parker and Ollier, 2015    “The nominal satellite altimeter-based determination of the absolute global mean sea level is actually a computational result rather than a direct observation. It is obtained by correcting the satellite altimeter raw signal with algorithms having many features in common with the climate models. Regardless of any modeling problems, Carter et al. (2014) pointed out that estimates of sea-level change from satellite-collected data remain problematic, because of the many uncertainties in data collection and processing. In particular, there is inconsistency between the results derived by different research groups, with all results depending upon the accuracy of complex adjustments, some of which lack in- dependent verification, plus the severe problem that the signal being sought may be less than the noise level of the data being used. Many corrections applied to all satellite altimeter measurements of sea-level since 2003 had the effect of changing a sea-level record that showed no trend or a gentle rise into one that projects high rates of rise.”
“The latest PSMSL Table of Relative Mean Sea Level Secular Trends update 14-Feb-2014 (www.psmsl.org) proposes the relative rates of rise computed for 2133 tide gauges of variable record length (maximum 183 [years], minimum 21 [years], average 56.5 years) with the more recent, shortest readings collected mostly in areas of subsidence and a strongly non uniform geographical coverage. The average relative rate of rise of the 2133 tide gauges is 1.04±0.45 mm/year“

NOAA’s ‘Believed’ Rates Of Recent Rise From Tide Gauges: 1.7-1.8 mm/year 


NOAA.gov


Adding NOAA’s ‘Believed’ Modern Rate To The Long-Term Rate Trend



Trends In Human CO2 Emissions Rates (GtC/year)



Non-Correlation: Sea Level Rise Rates & CO2 Emissions Rates



Reconstructed Trends In Total Solar Irradiance 1700-2013


Yndestad and Solheim, 2017

“Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. … Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods.”


Apparent Correlation: TSI And (Lagged) Sea Level Rise Rate Changes



Apparent Correlation: TSI And Northern Hemisphere Temperatures


Stoffel et al., 2015

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May 24, 2017 at 08:44PM

More Wind Turbine Collapses: So Common You’d Think ‘Enemy’ Forces Were Involved

More Wind Turbine Collapses: So Common You’d Think ‘Enemy’ Forces Were Involved

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‘Forgotten washer’ heard in hub before wind turbine collapsed in Cape Breton CBC News Brett Ruskin 15 May 2017 Just hours before a massive wind turbine collapsed last year in Cape Breton, a technician performing routine maintenance heard what was believed to be a washer lost in the structure’s hub. The incident — believed to … Continue reading More Wind Turbine Collapses: So Common You’d Think ‘Enemy’ Forces Were Involved

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May 24, 2017 at 07:30PM

HOLLYWOOD ATTEMPTS TO DEMONISE COAL

HOLLYWOOD ATTEMPTS TO DEMONISE COAL

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The following is from the Committee For A constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and explains the latest disaster movie from Hollywood which is attempting to demonise coal.

When it comes to pushing radical environmentalism, no one does it with more vigour than Hollywood.

Such is the case with their latest gem, “From the Ashes,” which purports to showcase the evils of America’s use of coal to generate electricity.

As we’ve done in the past, CFACT sent in an undercover operative to a special sneak preview earlier this week to get the early scoop on how the filmmakers are trying to snooker the American public with yet another slick presentation of one-sided facts.

What our operative found was no surprise: A bunch of hype very short on substance.

The movie, produced by (appropriately named) “RadicalMedia,” is being distributed through National Geographic and makes no pretence of being even remotely unbiased.

During an “invite only” reception before the special movie screening, a prominent Sierra Club member was overheard saying there are roughly 350 U.S. Sierra Club members funded by the Bloomberg Foundation (the same Left-wing foundation that bankrolled this film) “who wake up every day with the sole purpose of shutting down coal mines.”

The film itself launched into a number of diatribes against coal use, all bordering on the preposterous:

Fortunately our operative informed us the film dragged on for about 75 minutes, which seemed to tax even this dedicated crowd of true believers’ attention spans. One suspects it will have even less success with general audiences during its upcoming limited release.

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May 24, 2017 at 06:30PM

Schleede from 2000: ‘The Backdoor Btu Tax”

Schleede from 2000: ‘The Backdoor Btu Tax”

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“The [1993] ‘Broad Based Energy Tax,’ or Btu tax, proposed in 1993 would have imposed a tax ranging from $0.257 to $0.599 per million Btu on coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and electricity from hydropower. The tax would not have been imposed on non-hydro renewable energy sources.”

Tributes to the late Glenn R. Schleede this week (here and here) are joined by a piece published in Regulation magazine, published in 2000 by the Cato Institute. “The Backdoor Btu Tax” can apply to a variety of government interventions in the energy economy.

“Political ideas never die, however, they just come back in different forms,” Schleede reminds us. And so hold on to your wallets whenever reading about and analyzing the latest about mandates and rationing schemes with oil, gas, coal, or electricity.

The piece follows:

Many people in the “traditional” energy industries relish the recollection of the stinging defeat in 1993 of the hated Clinton-Gore “Btu Tax.” Political ideas never die, however, they just come back in different forms. Few have recognized it, but the national Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and renewable credit trading scheme in the Clinton administration’s proposed “Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act” would tax electricity produced from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and hydropower, much like the proposed 1993 tax.

The “Broad Based Energy Tax,” or Btu tax, proposed in 1993 would have imposed a tax ranging from $0.257 to $0.599 per million Btu on coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and electricity from hydropower. The tax would not have been imposed on non-hydro renewable energy sources.

The purpose of the tax was to increase the price of the “undesirable” forms of energy targeted by the tax. The proposed national RPS would require certain percentages of all electricity offered for sale to come from non-hydro renewable energy sources, including geothermal, biomass (including biomass used in coal-fired plants), solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, wind, and the biomass portion of municipal solid wastes. Because the use of these energy sources generally results in higher cots, the Clinton administration produced a scheme that would force electricity sellers to include electricity from non-hydro renewable sources in their product mix:

  • First, organizations producing electricity from non-hydro renewable energy sources would be given “tradable credits” for each kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity produced.
  • Second, electricity sellers would be required to include a specified percentage of electricity from non-hydro renewable energy sources in the mix of electricity they sell: a minimum of 2.4 percent from 2000 to 2004, increasing to a minimum of 7.5 percent by 2010.

Electricity suppliers could meet the minimums in any of the following four ways:

  • Produce some electricity from non-hydro renewable energy sources.
  • Buy electricity produced by other organizations from non-hydro renewable energy sources.
  • Buy “tradable credits” from organizations that produce electricity from non-hydro renewable energy sources.
  • Buy the credits from the U.S. Department of Energy at a cost of $0.015 per kWh. (The availability of credits from doe at $0.015 per kWh is intended to put a cap on the “market” price for the credits.)

In one of these ways, electricity sellers would be forced to incur higher costs because of RPS. Suppliers would, to the best of their ability, pass those higher costs to their customers by spreading the higher costs of “green” electricity across all kWh sold. In effect, the higher costs would become a “tax” on electricity produced from “undesirable” energy sources: natural gas, oil, coal, nuclear energy, and hydropower.

Suppliers would have no practical alternative, except in states where customers can volunteer to pay a premium price for more expensive “green” electricity. The added cost of meeting the Renewable Portfolio Standards may seem quite small. For example, it would be about $0.0012 per kWh for a producer buying only enough credits from DOE to meet the 7.5 percent minimum in 2010.

And $0.0012 per kWh is roughly $0.12 per million Btu—a little less than half the $0.257 per million Btu tax proposed in 1993 for coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, hydropower, and some oil products. Advocates of RPS probably assume that such a small “tax” would not be noticed in monthly electricity bills—and the “backdoor Btu tax” would have its foot in the backdoor.

The post Schleede from 2000: ‘The Backdoor Btu Tax” appeared first on Master Resource.

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May 24, 2017 at 06:08PM