The Climate Prediction Center has backed off its forecast for a weak or moderate El Nino this winter. The NOAA forecast is now for neutral conditions: the infamous El Nothing.
At this time of the year, it’s understandable as these predictions often change and here’s why.
We’re in the so-called “Spring Predictability Barrier.” In spring, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often in a transition from one phase to another. For example, an El Nino condition could be decaying and passing through neutral condition to a La Nina phase, or vice-versa. Overall, at this time of the year, El Nino or La Nina events are notoriously difficult to predict.
Of course, another factor is, as you get closer to winter, the models become more accurate because there’s less time for inaccurate oceanographic and atmospheric data to be amplified at model initialization. In this period of the year, you can either shake your fist at the sky in frustration or as astrophysicist Dr. Weymann of Atascadero would say, “Many climate scientists think the most reliable strategy is ‘WAS’ (wait and see).”
As the temperatures and currents of the Pacific Ocean change, so does our weather. Changing conditions in the Pacific can trigger El Nino and its sister, La Nina, which can actively influence our weather — either wet or dry. Neutral conditions typically don’t produce any reliable seasonal rainfall predictions along the Central Coast.
Since 1950, NOAA has used sea surface temperatures (SST) in a central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean called Nino 3.4 as the standard for classifying El Nino (warmer-than-normal SST) and La Nina (cooler-than-normal SST) events. The fortune-telling SST cycles in Nino 3.4 are categorized by the amount they deviate from the average SST. In other words, an anomaly.
A weak El Nino is classified as an SST anomaly between 0.5 and 0.9 degrees Celsius; a moderate El Nino is an anomaly of 1.0 to 1.4 degrees Celsius; and a strong El Nino ranges from 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius. A very strong El Nino anomaly is anything above 2.0 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Neutral conditions — El Nothing or El Nada —ranges between plus 0.5 and minus 0.5 degrees Celsius anomaly levels, or the sector between El Nino and La Nina.
For those unfortunates forced to live with incessant turbine generated low-frequency noise and infrasound, the cause of their inability to sleep is no mystery. Following the same trail being blazed by the Max Planck Institute in Germany which found infrasound exposure as the scientific cause of stress, sleep disruption and much more – Wind Farm … Continue reading Swedish Study Proves Pulsing Low-Frequency Wind Turbine Noise Causes Sleep Deprivation
Germany’s Grand Coalition Energy Experts Reject Greens’ Coal Exit PlansClean Energy Wire, 16 May 2017 Energy experts of Germany’s grand coalition of conservatives (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) have rebuffed the Green Party’s plans for an accelerated coal exit. “We cannot phase out both nuclear and coal-fired power production within 15 or 20 years,” conservative Thomas Bareiß said at a party debate hosted by utilities RWE and innogy. Bareiß argued that exiting coal “with a sledgehammer-approach” would “massively damage” Germany’s industrial capacity and undermine the “basis of our prosperity”.
The SPD’s Bernd Westphal said his party would put “no signature” under a hypothetical coalition treaty with the Greens that included an accelerated coal exit. Westphal said the energy transition affected “a very diverse array of interests” and limiting debate to climate protection was “wrong”.
The Green Party’s Julia Verlinden said accelerating Germany’s coal exit was “a red line” for her party as “there is simply no other way to meet our climate goals”. She rejected the other parties’ insistence on a market-based approach for exiting coal as “there is no market because carbon emission costs are not internalised”.
Verlinden added that a coal exit was inevitable and taking action now would “increase our flexibility and allow for better adaptation” by affected industries. In their draft election programme, the Greens envisage a coal exit by 2030.
Calling on President Trump to keep his election promise to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty.
“All people who value freedom and prosperity must eradicate the UN Climate weeds, roots and all.” – Viv Forbes
For Immediate Release
18th May 2017
Kill the Paris Treaty and Rip out its Roots
By Viv Forbes
Secretary of the Clexit Coalition
The Clexit Coalition today called on President Trump to keep his election promise to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty and stop US payments to all UN global warming programs.
The Clexit (ClimateExit) Coalition, comprising over 175 representatives from 25 countries, aims to prevent ratification or local enforcement of the UN Paris climate treaty.
The Secretary of Clexit, Mr Viv Forbes of Australia, said that all nations will suffer from the destructive energy policies being promoted in the UN’s war on cheap, reliable hydro-carbon fuels and the backbone industries that rely on them – mining and smelting, farming, fishing, forestry, processing and manufacturing.
He was supported by Professor Will Happer, Professor of Physics at Princeton University who said today:
“Americans never felt compelled to sign up to international folly in the past. I hope the United States once again shows the common sense of its people and walks away from the Paris Agreement.”
Dr Willie Soon of Clexit USA, an astro-physicist and climate author, added:
“There is no free energy in the real world. All world leaders, not only President Trump, should stop promoting the empty game of energy poverty and deaths.”
Dr Tim Ball, the Regional Director of Clexit Canada, said:
“President Trump knows he must keep the promises made at his public rallies. For example, he made the commitment to get out of Paris in his Harrisburg Pennsylvania speech: http://ift.tt/2pYf7f1
“This includes deals like the one-sided Paris Climate Accord, where the United States pays billions of dollars while China, Russia and India have contributed nothing and will contribute nothing.”
Mr Forbes said that the war on natural hydro-carbon fuels is denying the poorest people and nations of the world the chance of better paying jobs, cheaper energy and more abundant food.
“There is no justification for the War on carbon dioxide – CO2 does not drive global temperature and Earth’s climate cannot be tweaked by erecting windmills or putting taxes on carbon dioxide.
CO2 is naturally sequestered by oceans and the biosphere. Burning natural hydrocarbons merely recycles Earth’s carbonaceous nutrients vital to all life – already world food production and global forests have benefited from the small increases in carbon dioxide plant food in Earth’s atmosphere.
“President Trump promised to exit the Paris Treaty, but he also needs to de-fund and exit all UN climate control bureaucracies.
“Tom Harris of the Canadian-based International Climate Science Coalition has said that the President needs to dig up the roots of Paris – the UN Framework on Climate Change signed by President H. W. Bush and others in Rio in 1992.
“The root mass of every weed is as big as its branches. Everyone knows that pruning weeds just encourages more growth from the energised roots. All people who value freedom and prosperity must eradicate the UN Climate weeds, roots and all.
Cartoon posted by permission of Steve Hunter
“Clexit members around the world look to President Trump to add his weight to the growing momentum to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty and the Rio UN FCCC, and to de-fund all bodies responsible for planting these climate industry weeds.”
(Apologies to those who may oppose other policies of Donald Trump, but on climate and energy he is spot on and deserves support.)
Viv Forbes vforbes@clexit.net
Rosevale Qld Australia
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Further Reading:
42 American organisations demand that USA exit the Paris Climate Treaty:
Final Quote: “Believing carbon dioxide is the planet’s climate control knob is pretty close to believing in magic.”
– Dr. Richard Lindzen
Disclosure:
Viv Forbes has Tertiary qualifications in geology, physics and chemistry and experience in coal, oil, gas, grazing, investment analysis, cycles and mineral economics and has written widely on energy, climate and politics. He holds shares in a small Australian coking coal exporter which will benefit if the war on hydro-carbons sends more Australian industries to Asia.
