Category: Uncategorized

Skilful Monthly Rainfall Forecasts

Skilful Monthly Rainfall Forecasts

via Jennifer Marohasy
http://ift.tt/1gs4sCL

THE accurate weather forecast of James Stagg back in June 1944 is considered crucial to the successful D-day invasion that changed the course of WWII. Should we find ourselves at war again, is there an institution or individual capable of providing an accurate short or long-term weather forecast? Dr John Abbot and I are working towards […]

The post Skilful Monthly Rainfall Forecasts appeared first on Jennifer Marohasy.

via Jennifer Marohasy http://ift.tt/1gs4sCL

July 24, 2017 at 05:54AM

New video by GWPF on YouTube

Climate Politics as Manichean Paranoia – Roger Pielke Jr @ The GWPF, July 2017
The decision by US President Donald Trump to remove the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change was met with both derision and applause. Such is climate politics in the United States in the 21st century. This talk focuses on climate politics as “Manichean paranoia” — a term used by the late US statesman Zbigniew Brzezinski to describe an worldview in which your opponent is considered to be malign and willfully ignorant, whereas your own side is noble and uniquely enlightened.

While the two sides of the contemporary US climate debate disagree on many things, they are firmly united in their Manichean paranoia. Pielke describes this pathological approach to climate politics and why it matters. Pielke recommends five specific actions to improve political debate over climate. Changing climate politics won’t be easy and isn’t possible without a demand for change. The shared commitment to partisan battle between otherwise dueling camps of the climate debate is deeply held, and the siren calls to join the ranks on one side or the other is difficult to resist. However, rethinking climate politics should matter — not just for those who care about climate policy, but more generally for achieving the broadly shared goals of economic growth and the sustainability of liberal democracy.

View on YouTube

New video by GWPF on YouTube

GWPF Lecture – “The Great Climate Fervour” – Christopher Essex
Professor Chris Essex gives a lecture on The Great Climate Fervour to the GWPF in London, May 2017.

View on YouTube

Arctic Ice More Resilient Than Thought

Arctic Ice More Resilient Than Thought

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

July is showing again the resilience of Arctic ice this year. The graph below shows 2017 extents for the first 19 days of July compared to the average for the previous 11 years, to 2016, to 2007 and the SII (Sea Ice Index) estimates for 2017.

The graph shows 2017 holding to the decadal average and just yesterday dropping below 8M km2, one day ahead of average.  Meanwhile the other extents are much lower than 2017: 2016 is down 357k km2, 2007 is 379k km2 down, and SII shows 2017 480k km2 less than MASIE day 200.

As we shall see, this year’s extents are in surplus on the Atlantic side, offset by deficits on the Pacific side and in Hudson Bay.  The image shows the evolution of Arctic ice from 2007 to this year for day 200.

Click on image to enlarge.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

July 24, 2017 at 05:02AM