Wave Swell plans wave device deployment off Tasmania 

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Credit: Wave Swell Energy

It’s essentially an artificial blowhole according to the company CEO. They say the device uses resonance to make the most energy out of the water that washes into it, by operating at the natural frequency of the waves, and claim it’s ‘120% more efficient than a conventional device’.

Wave Swell Energy plans to install a commercial scale wave energy plant in the Bass Strait, off King Island in Tasmania, reports Tidal Energy Today.

Wave Swell’s series of one-megawatt generators will cost up to $7 million to build, and at peak times will provide up to half the power for King Island’s 1,600 residents, according to the Australian Maritime College (AMC).

The Australian-based wave energy developer said it expects the cost of wave power to be less than 10 cents per kilowatt hour when built at scale.

The news follows the testing of Wave Swell’s device in AMC’s shallow water basin which demonstrated the technology was ready for commercialization, and found the performance of the device was at least 120% more efficient than a conventional device, according to AMC.

Tom Denniss, CEO of Wave Swell Energy, said: “The results indicate the technology is ready to assume its place as part of the world’s commercial energy generation mix, with a strong potential to be among the very lowest cost sources of power within a few years.”

Wave Swell Energy’s design is a concrete gravity structure that sits on the seabed at the water depth of 10 meters. It is based on the oscillating water column concept, which acts like an artificial blowhole with water rising and falling inside a chamber.

AMC said Wave Swell introduced novel vents that allow the air to escape from the chamber as a wave enters. The vents then close and as the wave passes, it draws air through the turbine. This has two significant advantages, according to AMC, as the venting of the chamber when the wave enters reduces damping, meaning more water enters the chamber – resulting in an increase in efficiency.

This means that a simpler, more robust and efficient unidirectional turbine can be used, rather than a bi-directional turbine used by conventional wave energy converters of this type, AMC said.

Gregor Macfarlane, Associate Professor who led the research at AMC, said: “With advanced measurement techniques using laser diagnostics, we looked very closely at how water flows in and out of the chamber. This allowed us to modify the geometry of the device to make further significant improvements in efficiency.”

The AMC team also performed experiments in extreme weather conditions to measure the loads experienced by the concrete structure. The information has been used by the structural engineers to ensure the concrete device will withstand the conditions of the Southern Ocean over a 25-year period, AMC said.

Source: Wave Swell plans wave device deployment off Tasmania | Tidal Energy Today

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May 11, 2017 at 10:39PM

NOAA Downgrades Probability Of 2017 El Nino

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NOAA has downgraded the probability of an El Nino later this year to 46% from 51% in its April forecast and 53% in March.

ENSO-neutral persisted during April, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were +0.5°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +0.3 and +0.8°C in the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was slightly positive during April [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth around the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection anomalies were weak over the central tropical Pacific and Maritime Continent [Fig. 5], while the lower-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, the NCEP CFSv2 and most of the statistical models are more conservative and indicate that while Niño-3.4 index may be near or greater than +0.5°C for several months, the warmth may not last long enough to qualify as an El Niño episode (5 consecutive overlapping seasons) and/or may not significantly impact the atmospheric circulation. Relative to last month, the forecaster consensus reflects slightly lower chances of El Niño (~45%), in part due to the conflicting model guidance and lack of a clear shift toward El Niño in the observational data. In summary, while chances are slightly lower than 50%, ENSO-neutral and El Niño are nearly equally favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

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May 11, 2017 at 09:38PM

U.S. Shale Spending Dwarfs Competition: Grows 10 Times Faster

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While OPEC has just two weeks left until the May 25th meeting to decide on an extension of its production cuts, U.S. shale is back to drilling and planning capital spending increases this year at a pace that is ten times faster than the rise in international oil companies’ budgets.

Emerging from the oil price rout with leaner operations and a meaner cost attitude, U.S. shale has started taking advantage of the increase in oil prices following the production cut deal that OPEC and 11 non-OPEC nations led by Russia struck at end-November. U.S. production started growing from the recent lows, and drillers have become more confident in their plans, with WTI prices hovering around US$50 for most of the first quarter this year.

Drillers in North America plan a combined capital expenditure of US$84 billion this year, an increase of 32 percent compared to last year, according to Barclays analysts, quoted by Bloomberg.

By comparison, the budget programs for international projects are seen up just 3 percent in 2017, Barclays reckons.

The U.S. shale spending plans and growing production highlight the difficult position in which OPEC is caught – while the cartel is cutting production and trying to talk oil prices up, the shale drillers are reaping profits from the most profitable plays (hey, Permian) and reinvesting them in increased capital programs to pump more.

“The level of capital budget increases really surprised us,” Wood Mackenzie research analyst in Houston, Roy Martin, told Bloomberg in a phone interview.

“The specter of American supply is real,” he noted.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from earlier this week, the EIA lifted its U.S. crude oil production forecast to average 9.3 million bpd this year, compared to an estimated 8.9 million bpd last year. Next year, the EIA sees U.S. crude output averaging nearly 10.0 million bpd. Last month’s production averaged 9.1 million bpd, 200,000 bpd more than in April last year, and 600,000 bpd above the recent monthly average low reached in September 2016.

This small company could be one of the biggest winners of the coming gold boom. Backed by a billionaire resource investor and management dream team they could be the next big thing in the space.

In the previous STEO, the EIA had expected this year’s production to average 9.2 million bpd and next year’s – 9.9 million bpd.

Unlike five supermajors in the space – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total – U.S. shale drillers are working on shorter-cycle projects and didn’t have huge high-cost projects to review or defer amid the oil price crash. Among the five supermajors, it’s only Exxon that is planning higher capital spending this year, of US$22 billion, up by 16 percent from 2016. The other four are either keeping investment budgets flat, or as in Chevron’s case, are reducing the expenditure.

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May 11, 2017 at 08:18PM

Tillerson Says Trump Won’t Rush Decision On Paris Agreement

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Arctic nations have renewed calls for the world to address climate warming, but U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says the United States will not rush to make a decision on its policies.

Mr. Tillerson spoke Thursday in Fairbanks, Alaska, at a meeting of the Arctic Council, an advisory group made up of the eight Arctic nations and indigenous groups.

The council adopted a nine-page “Fairbanks Declaration 2017,” which noted that the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average. The document noted the importance of reducing soot and methane emissions and said climate change is the most serious threat to Arctic biodiversity.

Mr. Tillerson signed the document. But in opening remarks, he cautioned that the U.S. is reviewing several important policies, including how the Trump administration will approach the issue of climate change.

“We are appreciative that each of you has an important point of view, and you should know that we are taking the time to understand your concerns,” Mr. Tillerson told other representatives on the council. “We’re not going to rush to make a decision. We’re going to work to make the right decision for the United States.”

The Arctic Council, he said, will continue to be an important platform as the Trump administration deliberates.

President Donald Trump has said little about Arctic policy, but he has taken steps to put U.S. Arctic Ocean waters back in play for petroleum drilling.

The Arctic Council’s goals are sustainable development and environmental protection of the Arctic. The council does not make policy or allocate resources, and its decisions must be unanimous. The U.S., an Arctic country because of the state of Alaska, is joined on the council by Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.

Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Margot Wallstrom said she walked away from a private conversation with Mr. Tillerson hopeful of the U.S.’s intent in the region.

“He said, ‘Well, you know, we ought to first establish our climate policy and then decide on the Paris Agreement and how it relates,’ ” Ms. Wallstrom told The Associated Press. “And I think that sounds reasonable to do so.”

The worst-case scenario feared by some would be that Mr. Tillerson used this gathering to announce the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

“Then that did not happen, and I think that bodes well for the future,” Ms. Wallstrom said. “I believe that we will see a continued American engagement and commitment to the Arctic.”

The U.S. chaired the council for the last two years. The U.S. highlighted three areas during its two-year chairmanship — improved living conditions and economies for those living in the Arctic, stewardship of the Arctic Ocean and climate change.

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May 11, 2017 at 08:11PM