Category: Uncategorized

Uncategorized 9 May 2017

Study: Zika virus transmission isn’t as dependent on warmer temperatures as previously thought

via Watts Up With That?
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From the University of South Florida and the “we’ll have to find some other angle to blame it on global warming” department, comes this study.

TAMPA, Fla. (May 9, 2017) — Transmission of mosquito-borne diseases, such as Zika, occur at lower temperatures than previously thought, a recently released study co-authored by two University of South Florida researchers shows.

The study, led by Stanford University and published in the journal PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, found that transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika is highest at around 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Scientists had long considered 90 degrees to be the peak-transmission temperature. The finding is significant, especially as climate change causes temperatures to climb.

“This means that future transmission is much more likely to occur in subtropical and even temperate areas, such as the southern United States and northern Mexico,” said Jeremy Cohen, PhD, a postdoctoral researcher studying integrative biology.

He and Jason Rohr, PhD, an associate professor of integrative biology, are coauthors on the study. From 2015-2016, they collected data on the incidences of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, as well as climate, gross domestic product and tourism, in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Their data were used to create a model that shows the potential effects of temperatures and temperature change on the transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika around the world, three diseases that are mosquito-vectored and increasing in the United States.

The map at the left depicts the number of months where there is a greater than 97.5 percent chance of disease transmission by the mosquito Aedes albopictus, based on the model. Map at right depicts Aedes aegypti, the species most likely to transmit the Zika virus. The darker the red, the more months per year that transmission is likely. The areas outlined in black delineate the current ranges of the mosquitoes within the United States. CREDIT Image courtesy of study authors

“Our findings should help to predict the areas at the greatest risk of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks,” said Rohr.

Temperature affects how often mosquitoes bite, the amount of time it takes for them to ingest a virus from one human and inject it into another, and their life cycle. Cohen, Rohr and other members of the research team found that mosquitos posed the greatest risk to humans at 84 degrees and risk declined in cooler and warmer temperatures.

“Given that the predominant thinking was that transmission was most likely to peak at very hot temperatures, which would mostly limit the diseases to the tropics, we were certainly surprised that the model and the field data suggested that high rates of transmission could occur at lower temperatures, possibly impacting more northern regions in the future,” Cohen said.

Pinpointing the optimal temperature for disease transmission is critical for predicting future disease rates and how diseases will spread with climate change, and more effectively implementing mosquito-control measures, said lead author Erin Mordecai of Stanford University.

“If we’re predicting a 29-degree optimum and another model is predicting a 35-degree optimum, the other model will say that climate change will increase transmission,” she said in a Stanford-issued media release, adding that if local temperatures are already near optimal temperature, infections may decline as temperatures rise.

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via Watts Up With That? http://ift.tt/1Viafi3

May 9, 2017 at 05:00AM

Uncategorized 9 May 2017

More Pictures From The Weekend

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
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via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog http://ift.tt/2i1JH7O

May 9, 2017 at 04:35AM

Uncategorized 9 May 2017

Trump Considers What Steps U.S. Should Take On Paris Climate Accord

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

President Donald Trump is pressing to settle the U.S. position on the Paris Agreement on climate change before his first overseas trip later this month.

White House officials were expected to close an internal debate on whether the U.S. should withdraw or take more measured steps, but a key meeting on the matter scheduled for Tuesday was postponed at the request of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who would have been unable to attend, an administration official said.

Two weeks after his electoral victory in November, Mr. Trump said he had “an open mind” about the agreement by 190 countries aimed at combating climate change, reversing his campaign pledge to withdraw completely. But after softening campaign positions on China and NATO in recent weeks, the president may be looking to rebalance his approach on the world stage with a major move reaffirming his “America First” principles.

The faction for withdrawing completely is led by EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, senior adviser Steve Bannon and White House counsel Don McGahn, several officials said. They are eager for the decision to come ahead of the G-7 and G-20 summits later this month in Italy and Germany, respectively, where world leaders are likely to pressure Mr. Trump to stay in the agreement.

France’s president-elect, Emanuel Macron, urged Mr. Trump not to dismantle the Paris accord during a congratulatory phone call Monday, his spokesman told CNN.

But others inside and close to the administration are urging more tempered steps, such as paring the U.S. carbon-emission reduction targets.

In a recent Oval Office meeting, Condoleezza Rice, former secretary of state in the Bush administration, also implored the president to avoid the diplomatic backlash that could result from the U.S. fully withdrawing from the agreement, according to two White House officials.

Within his administration, Mr. Tillerson, Secretary of Energy Rick Perry and the president’s daughter Ivanka Trump are all pushing for a more measured response.

Mr. Pruitt and Ms. Trump are scheduled to meet at the White House on Tuesday to discuss the agreement, but that could also be postponed now that the second meeting of the principals committee of the National Security Council was delayed. A make-up date hasn’t been set.

Environmental groups, alarmed for weeks over the rising possibility that the administration may withdraw, have been preparing a response should that occur and simultaneously attempting to undercut the White House’s legal rationale for pulling out.

At the last principals committee meeting, Mr. McGahn took Mr. Pruitt’s side, arguing that remaining in the Paris Agreement could lead to litigation against the U.S. should the administration ratchet down its carbon-emission reduction limits, according to administration officials present. Mr. McGahn declined a request for comment.

Under the Paris Agreement, each participating country determines its own set of emissions targets and a plan to reach them. Mr. McGahn has pointed specifically to Article 4.11, which says that any nation “may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution with a view to enhancing its level of ambition,” noting that lowering goals could prompt lawsuits, multiple administration officials said.

Advocates for the agreement disagree with that analysis.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 9, 2017 at 03:56AM

Uncategorized 9 May 2017

Northern Hemisphere Having A Tough Time Shaking Off Winter

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US is experiencing an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May.

Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we heads towards the middle of May. In addition, temperatures in the Arctic region – which have been generally running at above-normal levels in recent weeks – have actually dropped to below-normal in recent days. One of the main factors contributing to this late season cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere is a blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere centered over Greenland and Iceland and this tends to contribute to cold air outbreaks into the land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Temperatures in the Arctic region (>80 degrees N) have fallen to below-normal levels (circled area) in recent days following several weeks at generally above-normal levels; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics/Dr. Ryan Maue

Discussion
During the month of April, Europe experienced a persistent colder-than-normal pattern and significant snow piled up in the Alps across the central part of the continent. The air was so cold, in fact, that many vineyards from England-to-Italy suffered serious losses as the battle with freezing conditions was relentless in many areas. In the US, a colder-than-normal pattern has kicked in for much of the nation and should continue into the middle of the month and there has been some accumulating snow in the western US and across portions of the Northern Plains and interior Northeast. In fact, the next ten days or so will see more in the way of accumulating snow in the western US and many ski resorts in that part of the country will have good conditions right into the month of June. The Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California, for example, will get more substantial snowfall over the next ten days or so to add to the massive totals that they received this winter.

500 millibar height anomaly pattern with strong blocking (in red) over Greenland and Iceland and deep upper-level lows over the Northeast and Southwest US; map courtesy AER/Dr. Judah Cohen

The upper-level pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is playing a big role in this late season cold. This time of year, it is not too unusual to see deep upper-level lows scattered across the northern and middle latitudes and a blocking pattern would allow for persistent cold in areas situated under an upper-level low. Indeed, blocking is now well established over Greenland/Iceland as indicated by the latest 500 millibar height anomalies (red region) and this type of pattern can force cold air southward from northern latitudes into land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.