Category: Uncategorized

Climate Of Hysteria And The Death Of Civil Discourse

Climate Of Hysteria And The Death Of Civil Discourse

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
http://www.thegwpf.com

The New York Times’s Bret Stephens might be the most hated man in America right now.

His crime? Actually being pragmatic on the debate around climate change, while avoiding being blinded by partisanship by playing strictly to one side.

The backlash against Stephens, a former Wall Street Journal conservative columnist and proud #NeverTrump member who recently signed on with the Times, follows his (completely reasonable) debut column that urges each side of the climate change debate to be open to listening to the other side, in order to have a better understanding around possible solutions.

But compromise is a big no-no in today’s completely intolerable political landscape, which has declared that there cannot be any debate on this issue. Just ask John Kasich how things worked out for him when he based his presidential run on healing a polarized country and compelling its political system to work for the good of the country again.

On climate change, the mantra many in media now espouse is, “It’s over. It’s decided. Put it in the books. Sit down and shut up if you even think of discussing it, unless it includes the word ‘crisis,’ ‘doomed’ or ‘underwater.’”

In his Friday column, Stephens concedes that climate change is real. The question he (rightly) asks is, what are the facts? Is some of the data being cited by those warning about consequences faulty? Is the planet in clear and present danger? Stephens thinks both sides have good points and accurate data to share.

On one side, he writes the following:

“Anyone who has read the 2014 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change knows that, while the modest (0.85 degrees Celsius, or about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warming of the Northern Hemisphere since 1880 is indisputable, as is the human influence on that warming, much else that passes as accepted fact is really a matter of probabilities.”

The 2013 Pulitzer winner continues: “That’s especially true of the sophisticated but fallible models and simulations by which scientists attempt to peer into the climate future. To say this isn’t to deny science. It’s to acknowledge it honestly.”

OK, so that’s Stephens not denying that climate change exists and scolding those who say otherwise.

But here comes the part that was too much for some to handle, where Stephens dared to challenge the danger of speaking in absolutes on the topic. In doing so, he invaded one too many safe spaces from those who only read the Times to have their own opinions validated.

“Claiming total certainty about the science traduces the spirit of science and creates openings for doubt whenever a climate claim proves wrong,” Stephens declared. “Demanding abrupt and expensive changes in public policy raises fair questions about ideological intentions.”

“Censoriously asserting one’s moral superiority and treating skeptics as imbeciles and deplorables wins few converts,” he continues.

“Ordinary citizens also have a right to be skeptical of an overweening scientism. They know — as all environmentalists should — that history is littered with the human wreckage of scientific errors married to political power.” […]

It’s all so reminiscent of students at UC-Berkeley shutting down the free speech of the Ann Coulters and Milo Yiannopouloses of the world, isn’t it?

Screw debate. Screw civil discourse. Just turn the anger and self-righteousness up to 11 and scream the opposing argument out of existence. Better yet, cancel a subscription over one opinion column that you disagree with.

Full post

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) http://www.thegwpf.com

May 1, 2017 at 03:02AM

Alarmists Gone Wild: Greenland losing 400 cubic km ice cubes per year!!!

Alarmists Gone Wild: Greenland losing 400 cubic km ice cubes per year!!!

via Watts Up With That?
http://ift.tt/1Viafi3

Guest post by David Middleton

ArcticBlather.PNG

[…]

The thaw is happening far faster than once expected. Over the past three decades the area of sea ice in the Arctic has fallen by more than half and its volume has plummeted by three-quarters (see map). SWIPA estimates that the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer by 2040. Scientists previously suggested this would not occur until 2070. The thickness of ice in the central Arctic ocean declined by 65% between 1975 and 2012; record lows in the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice occurred in March.

20170429_fbc508

The most worrying changes are happening in Greenland, which lost an average of 375bn tonnes of ice per year between 2011 and 2014—almost twice the rate at which it disappeared between 2003 and 2008 (see chart). This is the equivalent of over 400 massive icebergs measuring 1km on each side disappearing each year. The shrinkage is all the more perturbing because its dynamics are not well understood. Working out what is going on in, around and underneath a supposedly frigid ice sheet is crucial to understanding how it will respond to further warming and the implications of its demise for rising global sea levels (see article).

[…]

The Economist

375 billion tonnes per year… Oh my!

400 massive icebergs measuring 1km on each side disappearing each year… Oh no!!!

Wait a second… Those sound like big numbers… But how big are they compared to the Greenland ice sheet?

The USGS says that the volume of the Greenland ice sheet was 2,600,000 km3  at the beginning of the 21st century.

According to the “ice sheet goeth” graph, since 2001, Greenland lost about 3,600 gigatonnes of ice or about 3,840 km3 … That equates  to a 16 km x 16 km x 16 km cube of ice (3√ 3,840 = 15.66).  That’s YUGE!  Right? Not really.

It’s not even a tiny nick when spread out over roughly 1.7 million square kilometers of ice surface.  That works out a sheet of ice less about 2 meters thick… Not even a rounding error compared to the average thickness of the Greenland ice sheet.

  • 2,600,000 km3 / 1,700,000 km2 = 1.53 km

The average thickness of the Greenland ice sheet is approximately 1.5 km (1,500 meters).  2 meters is about 0.15% of 1,500 meters.

Greenland_ice_sheet_AMSL_thickness_map-en

Isopach map of the Greenland ice sheet. The first contour inside the white area represents an ice thickness of 1,000 meters. Source: Eric Gaba (Wikimedia Commons user Sting) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://ift.tt/HKkdTz)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

The thickness of the Greenland ice sheet is truly apparent on this

radar cross section

:

From a thickness perspective, 2 meters looks like this:

Greenland_xsect

The top panel is zoomed in on the box in the lower panel.  Each square on the graph paper image represents 5 vertical meters.

Using The Economist ratio of 400 km3 to 375 gigatonnes, 2,600,000 km3  works out to 2,437,500 gigatonnes.  When some actual perspective is applied, it is obvious that “the ice sheet goeth” nowhere:

Greenland_mass

The ice sheet goeth nowhere.

Despite all of the warming since the end of Neoglaciation, the Greenland ice sheet still retains more than 99% of its 1900 AD ice mass.

Multiple Choice Quiz

Fill in the blank:

Alarmists are _________ perspective.

  • a) allergic to
  • b) ignorant of
  • c) willfully ignoring

via Watts Up With That? http://ift.tt/1Viafi3

May 1, 2017 at 03:01AM

Top Bird Pix This Morning

Top Bird Pix This Morning

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
http://ift.tt/2i1JH7O

The hawks finally emerged from the nest after spending three days protecting the eggs from the snow and cold.

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog http://ift.tt/2i1JH7O

May 1, 2017 at 02:20AM

Global temperatures plunge in April – “the pause” returns

Global temperatures plunge in April – “the pause” returns

via Watts Up With That?
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Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to Dr. Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus aka “the pause” is back with a vengeance. He writes:

Some good news to end April, global temperature anomaly has fallen to only +0.1°C today (snapshot) … graphic is like stock market trace

 

Global Ocean Temperatures Drop To Pre-El Nino Levels

Despite NOAA’s Denial, A Growing Number Of Studies Confirm the Global Warming Hiatus

Despite widespread denial among climate activists, a growing number of scientific research papers in recent months have confirmed the global warming hiatus, trying to explain its possible reasons (for the latest studies see here, here and here).  The latest study claims that the Southern Ocean played a critical role in the global warming slowdown.

h/t to the GWPF


Dr. Roy Spencer says while there was a plunge at the surface, the lower troposphere is still holding warmth, but what is clear is that the effects of the El Niño are over:


The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2017 was +0.27 deg. C, up from the March, 2017 value of +0.19 deg. C (click for full size version):

Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months.

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.98
2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.08
2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93
2016 05 +0.54 +0.64 +0.44 +0.71
2016 06 +0.33 +0.50 +0.17 +0.37
2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.29 +0.47
2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.31 +0.49
2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.38 +0.37
2016 10 +0.40 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46
2016 11 +0.45 +0.40 +0.50 +0.37
2016 12 +0.24 +0.18 +0.30 +0.21
2017 01 +0.30 +0.26 +0.33 +0.07
2017 02 +0.35 +0.54 +0.15 +0.05
2017 03 +0.19 +0.30 +0.07 +0.03
2017 04 +0.27 +0.27 +0.26 +0.21

The UAH LT global anomaly image for April, 2017 should be available in the next few days here.

The new Version 6 files should also be updated soon, and are located here:

Lower Troposphere: http://ift.tt/2gVtMDe
Mid-Troposphere:http://ift.tt/2gCPmk0
Tropopause:http://ift.tt/2gVrWCC
Lower Stratosphere: http://ift.tt/2gCN2tc

via Watts Up With That? http://ift.tt/1Viafi3

May 1, 2017 at 02:14AM