China Gas Output Rises to Record as Coal Production Rebounds

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By Paul Homewood

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From Bloomberg:

China’s natural gas production surged to a record last month and coal output rebounded as economic growth accelerated power use in the world’s largest energy user.

Natural gas production in March rose 8.2 percent from the average of the first two months of the year to a record 13.6 billion cubic meters, according to data Monday from the National Bureau of Statistics. Coal output rose almost 13 percent over the same period to average 9.67 million tons a day, the highest daily level since December, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the data.

The nation’s economy accelerated for a second-straight quarter as investment picked up and factory output accelerated in March. China’s power output last month increased 7.2 percent from a year ago, the fastest pace since October, Monday’s today showed.

“China’s fundamental demand for coal and natural gas has improved alongside better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter,” Tian Miao, an analyst at North Square Blue Oak Ltd. in Beijing, said by phone. “The government’s investment in infrastructure has boosted power consumption while the move to replace coal with gas to fight pollution is also gaining some traction for gas demand.”

Government-enforced coal mining limits last year cut production by 9.4 percent, which nearly caused prices to double. Most coal miners will be exempt from limits this year as long as prices stay within a “reasonable range,” the National Development and Reform Commission said last month, referring to a domestic price level above 500 yuan a ton.

China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao coal price was 652 yuan a ton, the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association reported Monday, falling for a second week. Prices peaked last year at 700 yuan amid the government restrictions.

Shale gas output in March surged 50.4 percent year-on-year to 1.15 billion cubic meters after projects in the Changning-Weiyuan area in Sichuan entered operation, NBS said in a separate statement Monday. Shale production in the first quarter was 2.67 billion cubic meters, up 17.4 percent.

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As I have repeatedly commented, the it is Chinese economic growth that will determine how fast demand for energy rises.

According to Bloomberg, GDP is running at 6.9% higher than a year ago. There is absolutely no way that renewable energy can meet this sort of demand.

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April 18, 2017 at 04:06AM

Trump Administration May Not Find Middle Ground On Paris Climate Deal

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As the Trump administration debates whether to stay in the Paris climate agreement, observers are skeptical that opposing wings of the administration will reach a middle ground. Trump has been critical of the Paris deal’s potential effect on the U.S. economy, and told Reuters during last year’s presidential campaign that he may “renegotiate” the deal. But it […]

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April 18, 2017 at 03:44AM

Current Solar Activity Resembles Dalton Minimum…Weakest Month 75-100 Period Recorded!

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The sun in March 2017

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

Our source of energy continued to be especially quiet last month. The mean sunspot number (SSN) was 17.7 and the sun was completely blank for 16 days.

It is important to recall once again that the SSN is not simply the sum of the observed sunspots, rather it is generated by the number of spots multiplied by the 10-fold of the observed sunspot regions. When one single spot is observed in an active region, this yields an SSN of 11.

The mean SSN for all cycles recorded so far, up to month 100 into the cycle, is 48.6, which means that the current cycle has seen a solar activity that is only 36% of the mean. It’s a weak cycle.

Fig. 1: The current solar cycle (SC) 24 is shown in red and is compared to the mean of the previous 23 cycles (blue) and the similar SC 5 (black).

What follows is a comparison of all cycles observed thus far:

Fig. 2: The accumulated sunspot anomaly between each cycle and the mean (depicted in blue in Figure 1).

As the chart above shows, the current cycle is the 3rd quietest overall since observations began in the 17th century. Overall only SC 5 and 6 (Dalton-Minimum) were quieter (so far). What is especially remarkable is that the 75 – 100 month period of the current cycle is the quietest of the such ever.

A real drop off in activity

Compared to the 1930 – 2000 period, the current cycle in fact represents a real drop off in activity. If we smooth the curve over 4 cycles, this is what activity looks like since systematic sunspot observations began:

Fig. 3: 44-year smoothed sunspot curve using Loess filter 44 SIDC (orange) and the mean value since 1700 (brown). In amplitude and time period, the 1930-2000 years were the most active of the past 300 years. The current drop-off has a strong similarity to that seen during the Dalton period.

We are of course keeping an eye on the solar polar fields. At this point into the cycle, its strength is an indicator of the activity may be in the upcoming SC 25. Since December not much has changed, and so we will continue to stick to our prognoses from last month: The coming cycle will be approximately 1/3 weaker than the current SC 24.

The next few billion years

Over large timescales, the sun’s thermonuclear furnace strengthens at its core as the sun ages. The “solar constant” is currently ca. 1362 W/m², but is in fact not constant because it is increasing. There are a number of publications about this, and one recent study has come to the following result: Over the next 1.3 billion or so years, it is gradually going to get warmer as the sun will gain about 12% more strength compared to today. For the climate system that will result in about 41 W/m² in effective greater forcing (compared that to about 3.8 W/m² for a doubling of CO2, according to scientific literature). This will lead to a new modus for the earth’s climate, as temperatures will rise about 20°C. Naturally this is nothing to worry about, as by then we’ll be long gone.

That of course will not mean the end of life on earth as water will continue to exist and the earth will stabilize at its new plateau. And as the sun gains another 10% in strength, water will rapidly be lost into space. That will be the case in about 2.1 billion years. Later after that life as we know it will cease to exist on earth. And another 4 billion years later the sun will engulf the parched earth as it expands into a red giant.

But as far as we are concerned today, there is no need for pessimism! And don’t forget: there will continue to be an ice age every 100,000 or so years – just as this has been the case over the recent geological past (2 million years). And even if man should succeed in doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the earth will not turn into Venus. For that an additional forcing of 72W/m² would be necessary.

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April 18, 2017 at 02:46AM

Rules for Climate Radicals: Never Go Outside the Expertise of Your People

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Rule #2: Never Go Outside the Expertise of Your People. How can real scientists use this rule to their advantage? Simple, force the climate alarmists to stray from their talking points. Michael Mann and his ilk have canned, focus group tested talking points and they stick to them like stink on poo. They can recite […]

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April 18, 2017 at 02:43AM