Lake Oroville 100% Full; Emergency Spillway Use Hours Away?

UPDATE: As of 8 a.m. PST, the water level has increased to 901.09 ft., which meets the elevation at which the emergency spillway should start allowing water out of the lake.

For the first time in the 50 year history of Oroville Dam, Lake Oroville has exceeded its design limit as of 3 a.m. PST this morning, reaching 900.1 ft. elevation.

The inflow rate into the reservoir continues to exceed the outflow rate, increasing the probability of the first-ever use of the emergency spillway. This would cause massive erosion of the hillside, which in this Google Earth image is to the left of the narrow concrete spillway (2015 imagery, reservoir 50% full):

I have made an estimate of when the emergency spillway might be breached based upon rates of inflow and outflow; the following chart suggests around 8 a.m. this morning:

Observed (blue) and model-estimated (orange) Lake Oroville water levels.

These (unofficial) model-projected levels in the above chart assume measured inflow into the reservoir continues its steady decrease, and the outflow remains the same as it has been since 8 p.m. last night, when engineers reduced the flow through the damaged concrete spillway to avoid damage to power line towers:

Even if flow through the concrete spillway is increased to full-flow, the topping of the emergency spillway would only be delayed by an hour or so (9 a.m.). Lake levels would not keep increasing afterward, as suggested in the above chart… the model estimates are just meant to suggest we are likely headed to a breach of the emergency spillway, which will then provide an additional outflow channel for the lake.

I have no idea whether engineers have any “tricks up their sleeve” to avoid the emergency water release. The electricity generating turbines have been shut down due to debris in the water. I suspect we will be seeing some rather dramatic (and very muddy) video later today.

(Oroville Mercury Register live news updates.)

(Follow the hourly updates of water flow and lake level.)

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February 10, 2017 at 11:05PM

Lake Oroville Near 100% Full, Emergency Overflow Imminent

With a winter of phenomenal heavy rains and snow (over 400 inches so far at some Sierra Nevada locations), Lake Oroville 65 miles north of Sacramento is literally entering uncharted territory in its 50 year history.

As the following chart shows, the reservoir is rapidly approaching its design capacity:

Lake Oroville water levels in different years, showing the current level is unprecedented for so early in the year, and rapidly approaching a 100% full state.

While the reservoir has been nearly full in some previous years, note that this occurred in early summer, after mountain snowmelt. We have not even reached snowmelt season yet, suggesting a continuing flooding problem in the coming months.

A few days ago engineers reassured us there was still 20% of the reservoir unfilled. Then yesterday morning it was 90% full. This morning at 5 a.m. it was 97% full, and at the rate it is filling, tonight or tomorrow it will likely overflow the emergency spillway for the first time ever. Here’s a Google Earth image of the dam in April 2015 (when the reservoir was only 50% full); the wooded area to the left of the narrow concrete spillway is where the water will likely overflow this weekend:

To make matters worse, the concrete spillway has been badly damaged due to partial failure, which will likely get only worse as it is used to avoid the emergency spillway for as long as possible:

If water overflows down the emergency spillway, there will be a mess created in the Feather River due to soil, rock, and tree debris, threatening young salmon. The Feather River then flows into the Sacramento River farther downstream. Emergency officials are beginning to discuss evacuation preparations downstream.

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February 10, 2017 at 01:02AM

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February 9, 2017 at 04:32PM