Beleaguered Models: Harvard Physicist/New Study Say Daily Insolation Errors Not Accounted For!

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A new paper is out by Rodolfo G. Cionco and Willie W. H. Soon: “Short Term Orbital Forcing (STOF): A quasi-review and a reappraisal of realistic boundary conditions for climate modeling“.

It suggests that climate models have neglected to take surrounding astro-climatic parameters correctly into account, and thus their output results are likely even less reliable.

The abstract above states that the two authors found “important relative differences of up to +- 5%, which correspond to 2.5 W/sqm in the daily mean insolation“. They conclude: “this previously unrecognized error could have a significant impact in initial and boundary conditions for any climate modeling experiment.”

Willie Soon, a Harvard astrophysicist and skeptic of AGW science, wrote in an email:

To our best understanding, this new insolation calculation should supersede/replace the previous outputs provided by Berger & Loutre (1991) and Laskar et al. (2004) and their related publications especially since all these previous calculations/databases have not accounted for the modulating effects from STOF. “

The scientists summarize in the paper that the error “could spread and propagate with time especially when intra-annual insolation quantities are required” and that “the sensitivity of initial climate conditions to these differences should be addressed“.

In other words: it’s back (again) to the drawing board for the beleaguered climate modelers.

The full paper can be downloaded from: http://ift.tt/2o8lQp2  All the supplementary data, both programs and input databases are available here: https://1drv.ms/f/s!Apqs4Ax-5XDXggROueG7s6FC8bqs.

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March 29, 2017 at 06:31AM

Legal Group Takes Anti-Exxon AG To Court Over Hidden Emails

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New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is hiding emails showing he is colluding with wealthy environmentalists to take down ExxonMobil, a conservative legal group argued in court Tuesday. E&E Legal believes the New York Democrat is refusing to disclose documents indicating environmentalists Tom Steyer and members of the Rockefeller Family Foundation prodded Schneiderman into investigating […]

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March 29, 2017 at 06:16AM

Bill Nye: Global Warming Could Be Solved By Cows Genetically Engineered To Cut Less Farts

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Global warming could be solved by genetically engineering or breeding cows to fart less Bill ‘The Science Guy” Nye said in an interview Tuesday. “Agriculture researchers are going to produce or breed farm animals that produce less methane by changing the bacteria that are in their stomachs,” Nye said on BigThink. “To get all the […]

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March 29, 2017 at 06:16AM

New UK rules to partly exempt some heavy industries from renewables scheme cost

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By Paul Homewood

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s government presented new regulations to Parliament on Tuesday which it said will exempt certain heavy industries from some of the costs of a renewable energy support scheme, saving them around 100 million pounds ($125 million) a year.

The measures will exempt around 130 energy-intensive companies in Britain in sectors such as steel, chemicals, glass and cement, from some of the costs passed on from the government’s Contracts-for-Difference (CfD) scheme which is aimed at spurring investment in low-carbon energy generation.

Businesses with high energy consumption, such as chemicals, steel or cement producers, have long complained about rising costs from Britain’s climate change policies.

Industry body UK Steel said the exemption gives long-term certainty, which helps deliver a more competitive environment for British steel manufacturers, putting them on a more equal footing with their European Union competitors.

"We want the UK to be one of the best places in the world to build and grow a business and that means creating the right conditions for companies to thrive and succeed," UK energy minister Jesse Norman said in a statement.

CfDs are won through a competitive bidding process which guarantees companies a certain price for the low-carbon electricity they produce for a set number of years.

This should give them support and certainty to attract investment and get projects off the ground.

However, the cost of funding the scheme is recovered through a levy on energy suppliers which is then passed onto domestic and business energy bills.

Although energy costs on average account for 3 percent of UK business expenditure, there are 15 sectors where this reaches 10 percent, the government said in a statement.

Separately, the government is pursuing discussions with the European Union to seek further exemptions from policy costs for energy-intensive industries, it added.

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All of this means that the extra costs will be passed onto other bill payers instead.

Talk about rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic!

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March 29, 2017 at 05:30AM