Maloney, et al. (2019) Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming (paywalled) is a summary of a gazillion papers (well, that may be an exaggeration) about the future of the Madden-Julian oscillation in an anthropogenic-warming world. There’s an assumption there, isn’t there?
The MJO is of great interest to many weather forecasters.
The abstract of Maloney, et al. (2019) reads:
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produces a region of enhanced precipitation that travels eastwards along the Equator in a 40–50 day cycle, perturbing tropical and high-latitude winds, and thereby modulating extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes and heat waves. Here, we synthesize current understanding on projected changes in the MJO under anthropogenic warming, demonstrating that MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity, whereas wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease. Nevertheless, future work should address uncertainties in the amplitude of precipitation and wind changes and the impacts of projected SST patterns, with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme weather.
Hmmm, “…wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease…” That narrows it down.
Also (with my boldface), “…MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity…” If that’s a “likely” based on the IPCC likely scale, then that’s about a 66% likelihood, or so they say.
via Watts Up With That?
January 8, 2019 at 04:04AM