Month: May 2017

Permanent Drought At The National Center For Atmospheric Research

Permanent Drought At The National Center For Atmospheric Research

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
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Climate scientists at NCAR have to suffer through these real life climate horrors, as they ride  up the hill in fossil fuel powered vehicles on their way to save the planet through obtaining grants to build worthless climate models.

Like these distressed teenagers who are worried about the permanent drought.

Or these vultures circling over a broken climate.

Quite a change in color from yesterday!

Without climate change, these Magpies would be somehow different. 97% of climate scientists agree.

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog http://ift.tt/2i1JH7O

May 21, 2017 at 12:11PM

Examining the Carbon Dioxide Cycle

Examining the Carbon Dioxide Cycle

via Watts Up With That?
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Guest essay by Ronald R. Cooke

Introduction

In high school and college I did reasonably well in the physical sciences: chemistry, physics and geology. From these studies one can learn that carbon (C) is an element, is widely available throughout our universe, is chemically active (which means many inorganic and organic compounds include carbon), is present in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, is present in all natural fresh and ocean water, is a component of rocks (such as limestone), is a primary element of buried organic materials (including hydrocarbon deposits of oil, coal and natural gas), and is a very important element of the human body (about 18.5% of the elements in our body by mass). In fact, all life on this planet is based on hydrocarbon compounds which include carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.

By contrast, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless, tasteless and odorless gas that occurs naturally everywhere in, on and above our planet. Carbon dioxide is not carbon, but it does include one carbon atom and two atoms of oxygen. Carbon dioxide occurs naturally in the atmosphere. Higher levels of CO2 encourage the growth of stronger and more abundant plants. All plant life (a form of organic matter) has been produced by the interaction of CO2 with energy received from the sun (sunlight + H2O + O2 + CO2 = photosynthesis). All oil, natural gas and coal are derived from buried organic matter which has been compressed and heated over millions of years.

We humans would not exist if there were no CO2 in the atmosphere. We either eat the results of photosynthesis directly (when we consume grains, fruits and vegetables), or indirectly (when we eat animals, birds and fish that have previously consumed plant life). The natural metabolism of the body produces CO2 as a byproduct which we (like all animals) exhale when we breath.

Thus it makes no sense to examine the carbon cycle (an element) when we are really interested in the carbon dioxide cycle (a gas); most specifically we want to know how CO2 is produced and consumed, as well as how much residual CO2 there is in the atmosphere. In the following graph we show the primary categories of how CO2 exchanged with the atmosphere. Down arrows represent a decrease in atmospheric CO2. Up arrows represent an increase in atmospheric CO2. The size of the arrow represents the relative importance of each category. The importance of each category as a percentage of global CO2 is shown by the accompanying table.

Carbon Dioxide Cycle
Increase
CO2
Levels *
Plant Respiration 220 27.6%
Decay of life forms 209 26.3%
Sea Surface 330 41.5%
Human Caused 37 4.6%
797 100.0%
Decrease
CO2
Levels *
Photosynthesis 440 55.6%
CO2 taken by soils 6 0.8%
Sea Surface 338 42.6%
Conversion of CO2 8 1.0%
792 100.0%
Human Caused CO2 4
As a % of total CO2 4.7%
Annual net increase 0.55%
*Gt (Rounded)

Increase Atmospheric CO2

Plant Respiration

A plant takes up water (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), oxygen (O2), and minerals through its roots. It also exchanges carbon dioxide, oxygen, and water with the atmosphere through its leaves and stem. It uses the energy of sunlight to convert these into sugars and starch through a process called photosynthesis. These are then used by the plant to increase its size and biological activity (growth of leaves, stems, roots, fruits, seeds, and so on). In so doing, excess plant energy is given off as heat (respiration).

A typical process is: 6CO2+6H2O+energy (from the sun) = C6H12O6+6O2 (sugars). Notice there are 18 oxygen atoms going into the process and only 12 are used up. In photosynthesis the 6 excess O2 gas is released into the atmosphere. The respiration process is C6H12O6+6O2 = 6CO2+6H2O + energy (some as heat). Respiration releases CO2 and water into the atmosphere (and soil). Photosynthesis is a primary source for the oxygen we humans breathe in order to stay alive.

Decay of Life Forms

Microbial decay (decomposition of matter) is a process that starts soon after a plant or animal dies. Organic material is broken down into basic elements. Decomposition always includes the release of CO2.

Plant decay includes water leaching which liberates soluble carbon compounds, including CO2. Smaller plants are largely decomposed by soil invertebrate fauna. The decomposition of larger plants (like trees) typically involves parasitic life-forms such as insects and fungi. Microbial colonization accelerates the attack on plant cells. In the last stages of decay, cellulose, hemicellulose, microbial products, and lignin are chemically altered by microbes.

We humans, along with other animals, begin to decay almost immediately after death. The tissues of the animal body are broken down by internal chemicals and enzymes. Bacteria invade the tissues and start the process of putrefaction. Gases, including CO2, are released by decaying animal tissue.

Sea Surface

Although we do not have sufficient knowledge to establish all the dynamics of the CO2 gas exchange between the surface of the ocean and the surrounding atmosphere, it is estimated that slightly more CO2 is absorbed by the ocean than is released by the ocean surface into the air. It is both a physical and a chemical process that is primarily controlled by the differential between the concentrations of CO2 dissolved in the water and how much CO2 is available in the surrounding atmosphere. Since CO2 is soluble in water, we get the chemical equation CO2 + H2O = H2CO3, a weak form of carbonic acid. In the presence of free hydrogen H2CO3 + H = yields a bicarbonate ion which is stored within the waters of the ocean. The amount of CO2 which has been dissolved in the waters of the ocean varies with geographic location and the circulation patterns of the ocean currents. Higher concentrations are more likely to be found in the more populous and industrialized northern latitudes.

Human Caused

We humans release CO2 into the atmosphere when we breathe, raise animals, cut down trees, shrubs and grasses, burn peat and plants, consume fossil fuels, and so on. Our consumption of coal, oil and natural gas is by far the largest source of human caused CO2 because we consume large quantities of these fossil fuels by the process of combustion (burning). Gasoline, diesel, jet, and heavy fuels provide the energy that powers our transportation system, including personal vehicles. Natural gas, propane, heating oil, and kerosene heat our buildings and homes. Coal and natural gas are primary sources of the heat for the generation of electrical energy. As shown by the above table, we release about 4 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere each year; accounting for roughly 4.7 percent of all CO2 that is released into the atmosphere from all sources (natural and human caused). Because of human activity, total atmospheric CO2 is increasing bout .55 percent each year.

Decrease Atmospheric CO2

Photosynthesis

Plants consume far more CO2 through the process of photosynthesis than they release into the atmosphere through the process of respiration. These chemical reactions make plants green (usually), help them to grow stronger, and increase the rate of growth. For plants, more CO2 is better and there is some evidence that elevated levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased the greening of our planet. Plants, including trees, shrubs, grasses and crops, exchange CO2 with the atmosphere through their leaves and stems, and with the soils in which they live through their roots. At least 35 percent of available man-made C02 is consumed by plant life on our planet.

CO2 Taken by Soils

Since CO2 is soluble in water, damp or wet soils will take up CO2 where its chemical components may combine with other chemicals in the soil to produce other compounds.

Sea Surface

As discussed above, the ocean – along with lakes and rivers – removes more CO2 than is released into the atmosphere.

Conversion of CO2

Chemical conversion includes biological and chemical conversion of CO2 into other compounds, and effect of water vapor on CO2 in the atmosphere.

Results

Our model estimates that in 2015 we humans will cause the production of an estimated ~ 37 Gt of CO2. By way of comparison, the PBL Netherlands Assessment Agency has estimated in 2013 we humans were responsible for 35.3 Gt of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes. It should be noted some scientists estimate human caused CO2 is significantly less than our estimate.

Human caused CO2 is ~ 4.7 % of total global CO2 emissions. This figure includes both combustion and non-combustion industrial processes (manufacture of plastics, fertilizers, paints, asphalt, cosmetics, etc.), agricultural land use changes, deforestation and logging, as well as CO2 from forest and peat fires.

The Annual Net Increase of global atmospheric CO2 is ~ .55% in our scenario for 2015. This percentage is approximately the same as the average annual mean of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide observed by NOAA ESRL at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii over the last 14 years ( ~ .54 % 2000 – 2014). A contraction of economic activity in future years will decrease man-made CO2 emissions.

As we have shown: chemical decomposition, photosynthesis, and absorption eventually remove man-made carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It’s all a natural process.

TCE

via Watts Up With That? http://ift.tt/1Viafi3

May 21, 2017 at 10:51AM

Claim: Air pollution may disrupt sleep

Claim: Air pollution may disrupt sleep

via JunkScience.com
https://junkscience.com

If true, this could never happen.

A single cigarette provides a smoker with about 80+ days of the worst air California has to offer.

The media release is below.

###

Air pollution may disrupt sleep
AMERICAN THORACIC SOCIETY

ATS 2017, WASHINGTON, DC–High levels of air pollution over time may get in the way of a good night’s sleep, according to new research presented at the ATS 2017 International Conference.

“Prior studies have shown that air pollution impacts heart health and affects breathing and lung function, but less is known about whether air pollution affects sleep,” said lead author Martha E. Billings, MD, MSc, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Washington. “We thought an effect was likely given that air pollution causes upper airway irritation, swelling and congestion, and may also affect the central nervous system and brain areas that control breathing patterns and sleep.”

The researchers analyzed data from 1,863 participants (average age 68) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who also enrolled in both MESA’s Sleep and Air Pollution studies. The researchers looked at two of the most common air pollutants: NO2 (traffic-related pollutant gas) and PM2.5, or fine-particle pollution. Using air pollution measurements gathered from hundreds of MESA Air and Environmental Protection Agency monitoring sites in six U.S. cities, plus local environment features and sophisticated statistical tools, the research team was able to estimate air pollution exposures at each participant’s home at two time points: one year and five years.

Wrist actigraphy, which measures small movements, provided detailed estimates of sleep and wake patterns over seven consecutive days. This was used to calculate “sleep efficiency”–a measure of the percentage of time in bed spent asleep vs. awake. Researchers found that the sleep efficiency of the lowest 25 percent of participants was 88 percent or less. The research team studied if pollution exposures differed among those in this low sleep efficiency group.

The population was divided into “fourths” according to levels of pollution. The quarter of those who experienced the highest levels of pollution was compared to the quarter with the lowest levels.

The study found:

The group with the highest levels of NO2 over five years had an almost 60 percent increased likelihood of having low sleep efficiency compared to those with the lowest NO2 levels. The group with the highest exposures to small particulates (PM2.5) had a nearly 50 percent increased likelihood of having low sleep efficiency.

The authors adjusted for a range of factors, including age, body mass, obstructive sleep apnea, race/ethnicity, income and smoking status. They also adjusted for neighborhood socioeconomic status.

The researchers were particularly interested in chronic exposure to air pollution and what that long-term exposure might mean for sleep health. “There may be acute sleep effects to short-term exposure to high pollution levels as well, but we lacked the data to study that link,” Dr. Billings said, noting that the parent MESA study is investigating the chronic effects of air pollution on cardiovascular health.

“These new findings indicate the possibility that commonly experienced levels of air pollution not only affect heart and lung disease, but also sleep quality. Improving air quality may be one way to enhance sleep health and perhaps reduce health disparities,” Dr. Billings said.

Future studies, she added, need to explore the association between other air pollutants and sleep, the mechanisms by which these pollutants may disrupt sleep patterns and whether traffic noise is the driving factor contributing to poor sleep quality.

###

Abstract 11211

Relationship of Air Pollution to Sleep Disruption: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Sleep and MESA-Air Studies

Authors: M.E. Billings1, D.R. Gold2, P.J. Leary1, A. Szpiro1, C.P. Aaron3, J.D. Kaufman1, S.S. Redline4; 1University of Washington – Seattle, WA/US, 2Harvard School of Public Health – Boston, MA/US, 3Columbia University Medical Center – New York, NY/US, 4Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital – Boston, MA/US

Introduction:

Exposure to air pollution is associated with cardiovascular mortality and pulmonary morbidity, including asthma, COPD, lower respiratory infections, and possibly sleep apnea. Although air pollution also may influence sleep quality through alterations in inflammatory or autonomic nervous system pathways, the relationship between air pollution and sleep has not been well studied. We evaluated the relationship between participant-level estimates of long-term ambient-derived traffic-related air pollution exposure with objective sleep fragmentation.

Methods:

We analyzed data from a subpopulation of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who participated in both MESA Sleep and AIR studies. Exposure to traffic related air pollutants (oxides of nitrogen) were estimated at participants’ homes using spatio-temporal models based on cohort-specific monitoring averaged for one and five years prior to sleep assessment. Objective sleep fragmentation was evaluated with wrist actigraphy recorded over seven 24 hour periods. We used multivariate logistic regression models to evaluate for an association of traffic related air pollution with low sleep efficiency (<88%) and increased wake after sleep onset (WASO; > 60 mins). We adjusted for socio-demographics, sleep apnea (AHI>15), short sleep duration (< 6 hrs) and residential socio-economic status (SES).

Results:

MESA participants (n=1863) were an average age 68 (+/- 9) years, 46% male, 36% white, 24% Hispanic, 29% black and 12% Asian. A quarter of the sample had < 88% sleep efficiency and 11% had WASO > 60 mins. The highest quartile NO2 exposure level (> 23.7 ppb) over 5 years compared to the lowest (< 10 ppb) was associated with a 57% greater odds of low sleep efficiency in fully adjusted models with a significant test for trend (table 1). The highest quartile compared to the lowest quartile NO2/x average 1 and 5-years exposure levels were also associated with 71-91% greater odds of > 60min WASO.

Conclusions:

Higher levels of traffic-related air pollution are associated with greater odds of objectively measured sleep disruption after adjusting for individual and residential socio-demographics. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms and whether associations are attributable to oxides of nitrogen, traffic noise, other pollutants or environmental exposures that co-vary with traffic.

Table 1: Quartile of NO2 exposure levels averaged over 5 years as predictor of low sleep efficiency after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, < 6 hrs sleep duration and OSA (AHI?15) (model 1) plus race/ethnicity, income, smoking status (model 2), plus residential SES (model 3), presented as OR (95% CI)

Table 1 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
NO2 5 yr average exposure n=1842 n=1788 n=1787
Quartile I 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)
Quartile II 1.20(0.88,1.64) 1.19 (0.86,1.65) 1.20 (0.86,1.66)
Quartile III 1.09 (0.79,1.51) 1.07 (0.76, 1.51) 1.11 (0.78, 1.58)
Quartile IV 1.57 (1.15,2.14) 1.46 (1.03,2.05) 1.57 (1.06,2.31)



via JunkScience.com https://junkscience.com

May 21, 2017 at 09:08AM

“Mini Ice Age is here to stay,” says astrophysicist

“Mini Ice Age is here to stay,” says astrophysicist

via Ice Age Now
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“Major cold plunges hit Europe April and May 2017.”

“The developing Mini-Ice-Age is now in a NEW PHASE and here to stay 20 years” says Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.


http://ift.tt/2r6OUPD

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for this link


The post “Mini Ice Age is here to stay,” says astrophysicist appeared first on Ice Age Now.

via Ice Age Now http://ift.tt/2qcAwB3

May 21, 2017 at 08:59AM