Whither Next?

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
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By Paul Homewood

Now that the dust has settled, it’s time for a few reflections about the US exit from Paris.

The reaction from most of the media has been, predictably, virulently anti-Trump, almost as if he were the Anti-Christ.

Breitbart have reprinted the utterly ludicrous front page from the corrupt Weather Channel, which sums up a lot of the absurd criticisms thrown around.

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Nobody seems to have mentioned that Trump was elected President with a promise to withdraw from Paris.

Nobody has mentioned that Obama railroaded the Paris Agreement through, without the consent of Congress.

Apparently democracy does not count these days.

The Agreement itself has been widely misrepresented. ITV News last night claimed that 200 countries had agreed to cut emissions.

Jillian Ambrose writes in the Telegraph:

The Paris Agreement commits almost 200 countries to ensure that the average global temperature doesn’t rise by more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, by cutting down on high-carbon energy and fuels…..

The catastrophic effects of climate change are well-understood and are already beginning to emerge. Rising sea levels, severe weather events, and food shortages due to crop damage could all increase in the years to come.

Both statements are complete garbage. Fortunately most of the comments reveal this, eg:

Meanwhile, the good Frau has let the cat out of the bag:

Ms. Merkel, however, sounded a somewhat bleaker note. “The whole discussion about climate was very difficult, not to say unsatisfactory,” she said. “There’s a situation where it’s six, if you count the European Union, seven, against one.”

“This is not just any old agreement, but it is a central agreement for shaping globalization,” she said. “There are no signs of whether the U.S. will stay in the Paris accords or not.”

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And, of course, this is really what all of the fuss has been about. Paris never was about fixing the climate. Instead, it was part of a process of globalisation and wealth redistribution.

China

The hoary old chestnut has been wheeled out again – China will take the global lead away from America on climate.

Will China start cutting emissions now, rather than in 2030?

Will China agree to be reclassified as a developed country, with all of the obligations that entails for the UNFCCC?

Will China start paying billions in climate aid every year, instead of being a recipient?

Of course not.

There will be many platitudes offered in their meeting with the EU this week, and many meaningless pledges made. But China will continue to work for their own interest, and nobody else’s.

Renegotiation

Trump has offered the possibility of renegotiating Paris. Is this likely?

My suspicion is that it is merely a sop to the Remainers.

We already know that the EU have set themselves dead against this, and why wouldn’t they? To let the US renegotiate would simply admit that Trump was right all along.

In any event, what new terms would be acceptable to Trump? He would probably insist on equal treatment with China. Either the US gets to agree just to reduce emissions intensity, rather than actual emissions, and carry on increasing till 2030. Or China has to begin large reductions now.

Neither scenario is remotely plausible.

Where now?

What effect will US withdrawal have on Paris?

The first question is when the US withdrawal will take effect? Article 28 clearly states that states cannot withdraw until three years after the Agreement entered force, which would be October 2019.

There is then another year before it can take effect:

Presumably Trump will issue some sort of Executive Order, which will make this clearer.

However, he specifically states “Thus, as of today, the U.S. will cease all implementation of the non-binding Paris accord “.

This would seem to imply that, as it is non-binding, he can just ignore it straightaway. Whether the courts see it that way is another matter!

As for the rest of the world, there is little doubt that the EU will plough on regardless, and in doing so just keep digging a deeper grave for themselves.

China will carry on using coal, oil and gas, and sell wind turbines and solar panels to the West. India will do the same, regardless of any money they are given.

The Russians have not even ratified yet, and probably won’t until all sanctions are lifted.

Smaller countries were never interested in anything but the money, but will no doubt be around next year with the begging bowl held out.

In short, the circus will carry on, but with nothing meaningful agreed, at least until the next US President arrives on the scene.

And the money? Of the first $100bn promised by 2020, little has appeared. The $100bn a year thereafter was always going to be pie in the sky. Without US funding, any further payments will be extremely small indeed. This may be the rock on which the whole ship founders in a few years time.