PG Twits

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By Paul Homewood

Back in 2011, scientists claimed that climate change would drastically reduce Kenya’s tea production:

Climate change will drastically reduce Kenya’s tea production over the next 40 years with suitable lands being pushed further up the altitude, denting earnings from one of the country’s top hard currency sources.

Scientists from the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) said during a global conference that land under tea will reduce by 42 per cent by 2050, creating excess capacity in tea factories dependent on the catchments.

Areas West of the Rift Valley particularly Nandi, Kericho, and Gucha will be the most affected according to the study titled Future Climate Scenarios for Kenya’s Tea Growing Areas by Dr Peter Laderach, Dr Audberto Quiroga, Dr Jason Gordon, and Dr Anton Eitzinger.
The study says producers in Bomet, Kisii, and Nyamira will need to adapt their farm management to the new conditions.

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Actual data tells us that tea production in Kenya has been growing rapidly since the 1970s, global warming or not, and has enjoyed record harvests in 2013 and 2014, according to the UN’s FAOSTAT data up to 2014:

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As is often the case with climate science, it is the opposite that is true. As World Tea News reported in February this year, it is cold, dry weather that damages tea harvests:

Last year’s short rainy season and a prolonged drought in East Africa is taking a toll on tea yields in the region. As the weather phenomenon La Niña continues to dry up the skies, many are predicting a bleak 2017 for tea production in Kenya and other tea-growing countries in the region.

Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority issued an Early Warning Bulletin in December. “The late start and early end to the raining season mean that yields are likely to be poor,” it states.

This is in stark contrast to last year’s bumper harvest of 426,000 metric tons, up from 352,000 metric tons in 2015, which led to a second straight year of improved earnings for Kenyan growers, helped by a stable exchange rate and high prices for tea in the world market. Kenya exports 25 percent of the world’s tea and is the third-largest tea producer (after China and India).

Although the growing season began with decent enough rainfall, a dry and unusually cold June signaled trouble ahead. These cold-weather conditions continued into July and August, reducing crop production so much that, according to tea broker Combrok Ltd, factories were cutting their plucking days to only three or four days a week to save costs. By the end of 2016, following several months of dry weather, crops were showing signs of deterioration. “The tea leaves are becoming dry and falling off,” said Johnson Irungu, director of crops in the Kenya Agriculture Ministry.

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