History Shows There Was Nothing Unusual About Hurricane Irma

By Paul Homewood

As Florida clears up after Hurricane Irma, how does it rank with other major US landfalling hurricanes?

When Irma made landfall on the Keys, it was estimated to have had sustained wind speeds of 115 kt , about 132 mph. (It actually hit the Florida coast as a Cat 3, with winds of 115 mph, but the Florida Keys count as the first landfall).

Since 1851, there have been 14 stronger hurricanes at landfall, and Irma ties with 10 others. In other words, Irma is one of 25 hurricanes as strong or stronger.

Year	Name	kt
1856	Last Island	130
1886	Indianola	130
1893	Chenier	115
1898	No Name	115
1900	Galveston	120
1915	Galveston	115
1916	No Name	115
1919	No Name	130
1926	Great Miami	125
1928	Okeechobee	125
1932	Freeport	130
1935	Labour Day	160
1945	No Name	115
1947	No Name	115
1948	No Name	115
1950	King	115
1954	Hazel	115
1959	Gracie	115
1960	Donna	125
1961	Carla	125
1969	Camille	155
1989	Hugo	120
1992	Andrew	145
2004	Charley	130
2016	Harvey	115
2016	Irma	115

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Irma and Harvey have been the only two major hurricanes in the last ten years. The busiest decades were the 1940s and 1890s.

Calculating the number of hurricanes across the whole Atlantic basin is more problematic, because of the lack of aircraft and satellite observations in early years.

To address this, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project has attempted to reconstruct the numbers. The orange line reflects this:

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As far as we can see, there is no significant trend in the number of hurricanes. What we can quite clearly see is the influence of the AMO:

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The latest news from Florida suggests damage is much less than originally feared, even on the Keys. In particular, the powerful storm surge never really emerged, and Tampa escaped relatively unscathed.

Ironically, the worst of the flooding seems to have occurred up in Jacksonville, as a result of rainfall.