Category: Daily News

The New Pause Feels the Influence Of The Coming El Niño

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The gentle but prolonged la Niña over the past four or five years has given us a good run, but now it is giving way to what some predict will be another humdinger of an el Niño. The uptick in the UAH global lower-troposphere anomalies from the previous 0.18 K to the current 0.37 K is enough to shorten the New Pause by 1 month from 8 years 11 months to 8 years 10 months:

For context, here is the entire dataset from December 1978 to May 2023:

IPCC (1990), in the business-as-usual Scenario A in its First Assessment Report, confidently predicted 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] K decade–1 global warming from 1990-2090. Scenarios B, C and D all predicted less warming, but they also all predicted fewer sins of emission than Scenario A. Scenario B, for instance, predicted that annual emissions would not increase from 1990-2025, when in fact they have increased by more than 50% since 1990. Scenario A, then, is the scenario on which we must judge IPCC’s predictions and find them grossly excessive. For the warming rate since 1990 has been only 0.137 K decade–1, showing IPCC’s original range of predictions to be 220% [150%, 370%] of mere observed reality.

Here is the UAH temperature record since 1990:

The Realitometer continues to show the scale of the excess of prediction over sober reality:

Next, the revealing graph below, sent to me by a correspondent, shows that it is chiefly the Western nations that are shutting down industry after industry as the climate Communists dream up ever more implausible pseudo-environmental excuses for destroying yet more sectors of the once-free world’s economies.

The roast beef of old England is now under sustained and malevolent attack by the Communist-led environmental front groups to which the present nominally “Conservative” government is in thrall, on the ground that cow-farts are an existential threat to The Planet. It would in fact be a disaster if meat were banned, since a diet rich in saturated fat is beneficial to everyone. Eating meat with the fat on it does not make you fat. It is eating the high-carb diet relentlessly promoted by the vegans that makes them fat and gives them type 2 diabetes.

Here, then, is the graph of various countries’ pledges to destroy their economies:

It is largely the East that continues to expand its combustion of coal, oil and gas, not least so that it can accommodate growing number of industrial sectors either banned outright in the West in name of Nut Zero or priced out by savage electricity costs.

The United Kingdom now has just about the highest unit electricity prices in the world – approximately eight times those in India and China. No surprise, then, that foreign direct investment in Britain, which in Margaret Thatcher’s time exceeded all foreign investment into the entire European tyranny-by-clerk, has collapsed.

The United States has largely achieved its “climate goals” by replacing coal-fired power with fracked gas, which emits half as much CO2 as coal but costs about twice as much.

Bloomberg, the sponsor of the graph, is sullenly dedicated to the official climate-change narrative. Its graph reveals that its staff no longer possess either the scientific competence or the political independence to approach questions such as the climate issue dispassionately.

The graph misleadingly suggests that if everyone toes the Communist Party Line and commits economic hara-kiri as the United Kingdom and at least two of its dominions are doing, the world will only warm by 1.5 degrees or less, but that if everyone follows Communist-led India and China there will be at least 2.5 degrees’ anthropogenic warming.

But one can show on the back of an envelope that even if the whole world attained nut zero and the dark, satanic mills fell silent forever the global warming prevented by 2050 would be less than one-tenth of a degree. It’s not rocket science, but it’s beyond the clueless fanatics at the once trustworthy but now laughable Bloomberg.

If even global nut zero would reduce global temperature by less than 0.1 C by 2050, then it is implausible to suggest, as the Bloombourgeois do, that the difference between some nations complying and others not complying with nut zero will be as large as 1 C. It won’t.

The Bloomburglars have also failed to make allowance for the fact that most of the Western nations that have cut their emissions have done so by switching from coal to gas, a transition that is all but complete. Now that that low-hanging fruit has been picked and eaten, not much more progress will be made, not least because adding wind and solar power to a grid once their installed nameplate capacity – the output of these unreliables in ideal weather – has surpassed total mean hourly demand on that grid will greatly increase the cost of electricity but will not reduce CO2 emissions one iota:

Finally, an eminent professor whom I dare not name, for academic freedom in the Komsomol indoctrination centres that were once our ancient universities is no more and he would be savagely punished if I were to name him, has kindly sent me the following evaluation of the scope for wind power in the United Kingdom.

He describes it as “an interesting calculation that an intelligent child could make”:

Bottom line: If we carpeted the entire land and sea area of the United Kingdom with windmills – 14th-century tech to fail to solve a 21st-century non-problem expensively – they would in theory meet our entire electricity demand. Except that they wouldn’t. Three-quarters of the time they would be producing little or no electricity. The other one-quarter of the time they would be producing four times as much electricity as Britain needs. The waste would be prodigious. Of course, one could carpet the land area in between the windmills with static batteries, but then the cost of UK electricity, already among the highest in the world, would be ten times what it already is.

Ludicrously, down here in Somerset, the Government is about to bribe Tata Steel with half a billion sterling of our money so that they can build a giant battery factory for electric buggies. Reason for the bribe: Tata Steel says it can’t afford to come to the UK without subsidies to pay the difference between the nut-zero-driven electricity cost here and just about everywhere else. And that is before taking account of the fact that even global nut zero by 2050 (which won’t happen anyway because China, Russia, India and Pakistan are building ever more coal-fired power stations) would reduce global temperature by just 0.1 degree, at a cost of at least $1 quadrillion.

The Professor concludes that even 10% coverage by bird-blending, bee-bashing, bat-blatting windmills would be intolerable. He writes:

“The only solution is 100% nuclear. It is so blatantly obvious that I cannot believe that a halfway intelligent person cannot understand it. I also cannot understand why anyone would think that nuclear energy is dangerous when the evidence says the opposite.

“The problem is that we are in a post-truth society when the scientific method is dying and government and science are melding into a fluid rolling wave of corrupt stupidity. There is so much money being made by the renewable industries from grotesque subsidies, and from carbon trading credits by some members of the World Economic Forum, that we are fighting an uphill battle.

“There are signs that the Government are beginning to recognise the absurdity of net zero, but nobody from the pseudo-science climate alarmists to the politicians want to lose face by publicly admitting that the whole climate scam is a house of cards.”

Amen to all that.

via Watts Up With That?

June 3, 2023 at 08:32AM

Climate Change Fears of Teen Activist Are Empirically Baseless

Contrary to forecasts of doom, crystal-clear science shows that a broad range of outcomes related to climate change have stayed level or improved for the past 30 years.

The post Climate Change Fears of Teen Activist Are Empirically Baseless first appeared on Watts Up With That?.

via Watts Up With That?

June 3, 2023 at 04:34AM

England Needs A National Strategy For Sunny Weather!

By Paul Homewood



h/t Ian Magness

Meanwhile Sky News get hysterical:




England is "not ready" to respond to extreme heatwaves this summer and ministers must implement a national strategy, researchers have said.

In addition to excess deaths, they are warning of economic shocks and a "breakdown in public services" should the country experience more very high temperatures either this year or in the future.

Those involved in the response to such events – such as local authorities, first responders and utility companies – are concerned that resources are at breaking point, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment – part of London’s LSE – said.

Those participating in the Grantham Institute’s research, in association with the British Red Cross, said England is "not prepared to manage future extreme heat events, particularly if these were to occur more frequently at the same magnitude and duration".

It is calling for a national strategy on extreme heat; better understanding of the effect of hot temperatures on vulnerable groups; improved communication and engagement; and for potential cuts to public bodies’ budgets to be stopped.

Candice Howarth, head of local climate action at the Grantham Institute, said the UK "does not have a history of climate adaptation to cope with extreme heat but this now must be at the top of the agenda for government, organisations, cities and the public".

She added that ministers need to "consider impacts and responses beyond health" if England is to "avoid excess deaths, shocks to the economy and breakdown in public services in this and future summers".

I can’t say as I remember our economy and public services collapsing last summer! But no doubt the latter will use the chance of some sunny weather to demand bigger budgets!


June 3, 2023 at 04:13AM

Met Office To Issue Sunny Day Alerts

By Paul Homewood



The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is today updating its Adverse Weather Alerting service for England which it runs in partnership with the Met Office.

The improved system will continue to focus specifically on the health impacts of extreme weather in England on the health of the population but is now a colour coded, impact-based service. It is mainly aimed at health professionals and those with long-term health conditions such as heart conditions.

Heat-Health Alerts and Cold-Health Alerts are part of the Weather-Health Alerting system, Heat Health Alerts (HHA) run from 1 June to 30 Sept. Heat

HHA will be sent directly to social and healthcare services in England, organisations such as Age UK, and appear on a new dedicated website. They will give advanced warning of any adverse weather conditions that could have a significant effect on health and well-being, enabling health care professionals to prepare and the public to take extra precautions to keep safe and well. The HHA’s will run alongside the Met Office Extreme Heat National Severe Weather Warning Service. Although the two services have a different focus, they will work together to highlight all potential impacts from extreme heat.

Will Lang, Head of Situational Awareness at the Met Office, said: “We are looking forward to working even more closely with UKHSA following the changes to the heat-health alerting system, building on the work we have already been doing together. The effects of human-induced climate change are already being felt on UK’s summer with an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events over recent decades and temperatures in excess of 40C recorded for the first-time last summer.”

“The updated health alerts will be complementary to and run alongside our UK wide National Severe Weather Warnings and will play a pivotal role in helping save lives, protect property and the economy as we all work to tackle adverse weather and climate change going forward. It is only by working in close partnerships with organisations like UKHSA that effective action can be taken when it matters.”

Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “Our heat-health alerting system plays a vital role in notifying professionals and the public of forecasted high temperatures that can affect the health of those most at risk, particularly individuals over the age of 65 and those with pre-existing health conditions.  Last year saw record high temperatures across England and evidence shows that heatwaves are likely to occur more often, be more intense and last longer in the years and decades ahead. It is important we are able to quantify the likely impacts of these heatwaves before they arrive to prevent illness and reduce the number of deaths.

The Met Office already have a system in place for heat waves; last year they issued their first red alert for one – (CLUE – they only introduced the system last year). There is no need therefore another layer; surely all of these care organisations, not to mention the public at large, are perfectly capable of understanding a weather forecast.

No, the real plan here is to bombard the public with Heat Alerts every time we get a bit of sunny weather.

As for the claim of saving lives, the fact remains that mortality rates are at their lowest in summer, even last year. If we are to have alerts for hot weather, what about an amber alert for April showers or a mild autumn day?


In reality, the heatwaves did not increase the number of deaths as they claim, they merely brought forward those deaths by a few days or weeks at the most, as the ONS told us in the special study they published last October:



We can see this clearly by looking at the July data. According to the ONS, the largest number of excess deaths occurred during July:


Yet the total the number of deaths in July was less than June’s on a daily rate, not to mention a lot lower than April and May:


There is no evidence that more people are dying in Britain because of hot summers.


June 3, 2023 at 04:13AM