Month: September 2017

How the CIC Is Working to Prevent EPA from Using Good Science

After several decades of pioneering work, the “environmental” movement was captured by environmental extremists during the last few decades of the last century; EPA, in turn, was effectively captured by the “environmental” movement starting during the Clinton Administration and in a very accelerated way during the Obama Administration. This capture of EPA was not limited to the selection of a few supportive political appointees, but rather penetrated into the career civil service and even to the supposedly non-partisan EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB) composed primarily of academic scientists. But even with the “environmental” groups’ strong influence, the Obama Administration may not have trusted the SAB to render the invalid scientific conclusions on climate alarmism they wanted in their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Endangerment Finding and failed to submit their GHG Endangerment Finding to the SAB for review despite the clear need for it to do so on such an important and influential issue.

With this history it is laudable that the Trump Administration apparently wants to change the composition of the committees back to a more balanced viewpoint, hopefully with a very strong emphasis on the scientific method as the basis for determining the science which EPA uses. Under the scientific method, for example, the so-called “consensus” so strongly advocated by the Climate-Industrial Complex (CIC) should have absolutely no role in determining science–only results derived by using the scientific method, the basis for evaluating what is and is not valid science.

Because members of the SAB are appointed for periods of several years, such membership changes would require a number of years to achieve a more balanced membership on SAB. There is some evidence that this may be what the Trump EPA is trying to do with a request for nominations in the Federal Register several months ago. EPA received many nominations, including both those favoring and opposing climate alarmism and environmental extremism, and have now asked for public comments on these nominees. Comments on candidates for the Science Advisory Board should be submitted by email to Mr. Thomas Carpenter, Designated Federal Officer, no later than September 28, 2017, at carpenter.thomas@epa.gov, and to Mr. Aaron Yeow, Designated Federal Officer, at yeow.aaron@epa.gov no later than September 18, 2017 concerning candidates for the Clean Air Science Advisory Committee. Some comments on a number of the candidates from a skeptic website can be found here.

Why Should the EPA Pay to Hear Its Own Views on Its Science?

The CIC is hard at work trying to drum up public opposition to those SAB nominees opposed to climate alarmism. See, for example, here. There are also reports that the Washington Post may soon join in. It appears likely that this is because the CIC does not believe there should be any real debate on climate science or any other science-based issue coming before EPA and that the SAB should only hear the views of those who closely support the tenets of those who are willing to overthrow science-based environmental regulation in favor of climate alarmism and environmental extremism.

The obvious question is why EPA should pay to hear the views of scientists very closely associated with the EPA’s views during the Obama Administration, a number of whom already receive very large research grants from EPA and who often support EPA’s proposed regulations. Could it be that the CIC wants the SAB to continue to be an echo chamber for its views rather than a serious arbiter of science?

I would argue that even if there were little opposition to proposed EPA regulations (clearly not the case), EPA would be better off to actively recruit serious opponents who strongly support the use of the scientific method but have reached opposing viewpoints on the science EPA is using. A scientific advisory group that supports views that EPA has previously adopted is not making any useful contribution. It is just a rubber stamp using resources for no useful purpose.

A very different view can be found in my climate/environmental book and very recently in one by Steve Malloy. If views opposed to the scientific basis of climate alarmism had been actively encouraged prior to the approval of the GHG Endangerment Finding in 2009, we would be far better off now and might well have saved many hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars that the Obama Administration wasted on climate alarmist policies with no valid scientific basis.

The Supreme Court did not tell EPA to regulate carbon dioxide; they told EPA to determine whether GHGs met the criteria for regulation under the Clean Air Act. EPA did so in 2009, but deliberately ignored the abundant scientific evidence to the contrary, as I pointed out at the time.

The proponents of climate alarmism have long worked to wrap themselves in the mantle of “clean,” but the serious question is whether climate alarmists and other environmental extremists have pushed EPA to an extreme where there is nothing to show for the added expenditures promoted by them except bigger bills for taxpayers and ratepayers.

It almost goes without saying that selecting nominees that are financially dependent on the EPA for the funds to support their research is also a bad idea since they will be much less likely to bite the hand that is feeding them. The climate alarmists falsely claim that their opponents are all in the pay of fossil fuel interests. They too often hide the fact that many of their friends are in the pay of renewable energy or regulatory interests.

As outlined in my climate/environmental book, I am just as committed to environmental protection as I ever have been, but not by misrepresenting the science. Using bad science is not justified by the potential worthiness of any objective. It rather just makes matters worse by misdirecting resources to problems that are actually non-problems such as climate alarmism. Given their actions, the leadership of the “environmental” movement apparently does not support good science or even public discussion of it. And in recent years EPA has joined them by proposing and imposing regulations based on invalid science. I have extensively documented this in my climate/environmental book and this blog with regard to climate alarmism and other forms of environmental extremism that cannot be justified scientifically. This is inexcusable. The EPA SAB can play a vital role in bringing good science back to the EPA, but only if it has members who insist on it. This is why it is so important that members are appointed whose loyalty is to good science, not EPA or environmental extremism.

Public disclosure: I am one of the candidates being considered by EPA for the SAB.

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September 15, 2017 at 05:41PM

What you need to know and are not told about hurricanes

By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website Summary: Millions of words were expended reporting about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but too little about the science connecting them to climate change. Here are the details, contrasted with the propaganda barrage of those seeking to exploit these disasters for political gain. Let’s listen to these scientists…

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September 15, 2017 at 04:06PM

Hubble telescope observes strange ‘pitch black’ planet

This artist’s impression shows the exoplanet WASP-12b — an alien world as black as fresh asphalt, orbiting a star like our Sun. Scientists were able to measure its albedo: the amount of light the planet reflects. The results showed that the planet is extremely dark at optical wavelengths. CREDIT NASA, ESA, and G. Bacon (STScI)

From the ESA/HUBBLE INFORMATION CENTRE

Astronomers have discovered that the well-studied exoplanet WASP-12b reflects almost no light, making it appear essentially pitch black. This discovery sheds new light on the atmospheric composition of the planet and also refutes previous hypotheses about WASP-12b’s atmosphere. The results are also in stark contrast to observations of another similarly sized exoplanet.

Using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) on the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, an international team led by astronomers at McGill University, Canada, and the University of Exeter, UK, have measured how much light the exoplanet WASP-12b reflects — its albedo — in order to learn more about the composition of its atmosphere [1].

The results were surprising, explains lead author Taylor Bell, a Master’s student in astronomy at McGill University who is affiliated with the Institute for Research on Exoplanets: “The measured albedo of WASP-12b is 0.064 at most. This is an extremely low value, making the planet darker than fresh asphalt!” This makes WASP-12b two times less reflective than our Moon which has an albedo of 0.12 [2]. Bell adds: “The low albedo shows we still have a lot to learn about WASP-12b and other similar exoplanets.”

WASP-12b orbits the Sun-like star WASP-12A, about 1400 light-years away, and since its discovery in 2008 it has become one of the best studied exoplanets (opo1354-http://ift.tt/2vWmab3, opo1015-http://ift.tt/2eXqMXE, opo1436-http://ift.tt/2vX3w2S, heic1524-http://ift.tt/2eXUEmH). With a radius almost twice that of Jupiter and a year of just over one Earth day, WASP-12b is categorised as a hot Jupiter. Because it is so close to its parent star, the gravitational pull of the star has stretched WASP-12b into an egg shape and raised the surface temperature of its daylight side to 2600 degrees Celsius.

The high temperature is also the most likely explanation for WASP-12b’s low albedo. “There are other hot Jupiters that have been found to be remarkably black, but they are much cooler than WASP-12b. For those planets, it is suggested that things like clouds and alkali metals are the reason for the absorption of light, but those don’t work for WASP-12b because it is so incredibly hot,” explains Bell.

The daylight side of WASP-12b is so hot that clouds cannot form and alkali metals are ionised. It is even hot enough to break up hydrogen molecules into atomic hydrogen which causes the atmosphere to act more like the atmosphere of a low-mass star than like a planetary atmosphere. This leads to the low albedo of the exoplanet.

To measure the albedo of WASP-12b the scientists observed the exoplanet in October 2016 during an eclipse, when the planet was near full phase and passed behind its host star for a time. This is the best method to determine the albedo of an exoplanet, as it involves directly measuring the amount of light being reflected. However, this technique requires a precision ten times greater than traditional transit observations. Using Hubble’s Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph the scientists were able to measure the albedo of WASP-12b at several different wavelengths.

“After we measured the albedo we compared it to spectral models of previously suggested atmospheric models of WASP-12b”, explains Nikolay Nikolov (University of Exeter, UK), co-author of the study. “We found that the data match neither of the two currently proposed models.” [3]. The new data indicate that the WASP-12b atmosphere is composed of atomic hydrogen and helium.

WASP-12b is only the second planet to have spectrally resolved albedo measurements, the first being HD 189733b, another hot Jupiter. The data gathered by Bell and his team allowed them to determine whether the planet reflects more light towards the blue or the red end of the spectrum. While the results for HD 189733b suggest that the exoplanet has a deep blue colour (heic1312-http://ift.tt/2eZ5sBk), WASP-12b, on the other hand, is not reflecting light at any wavelength. WASP-12b does, however, emit light because of its high temperature, giving it a red hue similar to a hot glowing metal.

“The fact that the first two exoplanets with measured spectral albedo exhibit significant differences demonstrates the importance of these types of spectral observations and highlights the great diversity among hot Jupiters,” concludes Bell.

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September 15, 2017 at 01:36PM

Wind could make Britain an energy superpower to rival Arabia !

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is away with the fairies again:

 

 

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The economic argument over wind power has been settled. Britain’s national gamble on offshore wind arrays in the North Sea and the Irish Sea has been vindicated in spectacular style.

This should be proclaimed, assiduously nurtured, and expanded where compatible with marine ecosystems. If you are looking for a turbo-charged venture to lift British fortunes after Brexit, offshore wind is as good as it gets.

The prospects are suddenly so enticing that we could in theory be an aeolian superpower by the 2030s or 2040s, trading places with Saudi Arabia to become the energy sheikhdom of the northern seas. The deeper question is not whether we have the technology to do it, but whether we should compromise the ecological  integrity of the North Sea in such a fashion.

Industry insiders are not surprised by the strike price of £57.50 per megawatt hour unveiled this week for two giant wind projects, half the levels struck in contracts two years ago. They already knew that the technology is advancing by leaps and bounds. But it seems to have stunned everybody else.

The UK is the world leader by far in offshore wind with 10 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity planned by the late 2020s, as is fitting given the near perfect mix of shallow waters and optimal wind speeds through the North Sea. The depth at Dogger Bank off Yorkshire is 50 feet in places – it was once a Paleolithic hunting ground, with woolly rhinos.

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Let’s first address his claim that the economics are now settled.

The strike prices agreed for the three new projects this week range from £57.50 to £74.75/MWh. But these are at 2012 prices, so we are actually looking at prices up to £81/MWh, which is nearly double the market price.

Even then these prices are only viable for wind farm operators for two key reasons:

 

1) Low interest rates

Being a highly capitalised industry, the viability of offshore wind farms is particularly sensitive to the level of interest rates.

For instance, Triton Knoll, one of the successful applications, is estimated to have a capital cost of £3bn. Rated at 860 MW, output will be about 3 TWh a year.

Therefore an increase in the cost of capital of 1% would add £10/MWh to the cost.

We currently live in an era of negative interest rates, which are maybe 3 to 4% below “proper” long term rates. How long these can be maintained for is anybody’s guess, but a return of interest rates to “normal” levels would drastically put up the cost of offshore wind in future.

 

2) Guaranteed Income Stream

Under CfD, offshore wind farms receive a guaranteed, index linked price for 15 years. Moreover, the system effectively guarantees that they can sell all of their output, thus providing a guaranteed income stream.

This makes the projects much more attractive for investors, thus reducing the cost of capital still further.

In short, would any of these three projects be going ahead if they had to compete on the open market?

AEP’s claim that the economic argument is settled seems largely to rest on the fact that offshore wind is now cheaper than new nuclear. But, as usual, he misses the point that he is not comparing like with like.

The UK power grid needs large amounts of dispatchable power, both reliable baseload and flexible generation for demand fluctuation. Wind power cannot fulfil either requirement.

To get around this problem of intermittency, AEP really does fly off to La la Land!

He talks about using surplus wind power to produce hydrogen via electrolysis.

Some excess power …….could be turned into ultra-green hydrogen through electrolysis, to be exported worldwide or kept as a reserve source of back-up power.

Even Lord Oxburgh made clear in his report last year, Lowest Cost Decarbonisation for the UK: The Critical Role of CCS, that electrolysis could not produce hydrogen to the scale needed, and was “cost prohibitive” (page 66).

AEP then goes on to claim that :

Ultimately, new designs will be required to use it [hydrogen] in pure form at very high temperatures but that is just a matter of time. We are nearing the point where solar and wind will be able to generate their own reserve power at viable cost. The curse of “intermittency” is being conquered. It will cease to be an insurmountable barrier in the 2020s.

So surplus wind power will be used to (very expensively) produce hydrogen, which will then be burnt to provide electricity when the wind does not blow. And he claims this is viable? What planet is he on?

 

As for his wild claim about rivalling Arabia, the actual statistics show it to be nonsense.

 

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Current offshore capacity in the UK is 5 GW, and AEP says this may double during the 2020s. But that will put no more than a dent in Britain’s overall energy needs.

He has a vision of the UK exporting wind power to Europe, but currently there is only a small amount of interconnector capacity.

But even if somebody was prepared to build a lot more, why would anybody in Europe be prepared to pay the guaranteed price that offshore wind farms have contracted to get?

When there is surplus wind power in the UK, there will almost certainly be even more across northern Europe, and power prices will be low. Who will then pick up the difference between the market price and the strike price? Probably the good old British taxpayer!

AEP rather naively believes that within a decade offshore wind will be generating revenue for the Exchequer:

By the mid-2020s, the turbines will be approaching 15 megawatts, and by then cost projections will be dropping towards £45 per MWh. The UK will be sitting on a lucrative low-carbon resource, doubly valuable once global CO2 pricing takes hold and ratchets above $50 a ton.

At such levels the discussion will no longer be about subsidy but about how much revenue is being generated for the Exchequer.

 Tens of billions have been raised from North Sea oil in recent years, but I cannot see how wind farm operators can stump up tax without putting their prices up.

Interesting as well that he sees a global CO2 tax of $50/t by the mid 2020s. If renewable energy really was so attractive, there would be no need for such a tax.

The idea that the rest of the world is going to hamstring their economies in this way is frankly ridiculous. Even in the EU carbon pricing has collapsed.

 

Of course I might be wrong! But if AEP is right, the government should be able to cancel all future CfD auctions and just wait for Dong and co to start building hundreds of wind turbines in the North Sea, without any subsidies or other guarantees.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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September 15, 2017 at 01:24PM