Month: September 2017

Daily News

Irma Update–11.00 ET

By Paul Homewood

 

[Image of probabilities of 64-kt winds]

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I suppose any news is good news in this situation, but the latest advisory from NHC has shifted the hurricane track slightly further west and also downgraded the wind speed.

As Irma has stayed close to Cuba for longer than anticipated wind speeds have now dropped to 125 mph. They will certainly pick up again as Irma crosses water again.

The new track has Irma moving up the Gulf off the west coast of Florida, before probably making landfall near Tampa on Sunday evening.. The fear is the warm Gulf water will rack up wind speeds again. However, there is a forecast of  westerly shear developing during tomorrow, which hopefully will keep the lid on things.

The latest advisory has sustained wind speeds of 140 mph around landfall. This is still catastrophic, but better than the previous forecast of 150 mph.

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The westerly track will also hopefully bring a little bit of respite to the more populous east coast, at least in comparison to what was predicted earlier.

Nevertheless, the Keys are going to get absolutely hammered. Tampa also looks set to bear the brunt, but at least storm surge should be less of a problem than it would have been on the east coast, as the winds will be blowing offshore.

NHC advisories will now be broadcast hourly.

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September 9, 2017 at 11:06AM

Daily News

Hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach lists new records associated with hurricane #Irma

Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through September 9 at 11am EDT) Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date (Edited for formatting) Intensity Measures 185 mph lifetime max winds – tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. Allen had max winds of…

via Watts Up With That?

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September 9, 2017 at 10:59AM

Daily News

Hurricane Irma’s Numbers Simply Do Not Add Up

Terrible though the deaths and damage caused by Hurricane Irma may be, the way it has been reported makes one wonder whether, after more than 10 years that have seen Atlantic hurricane activity at its lowest level for decades, everyone has forgotten what these monster tropical storms are like.

The media have gone way over the top, with headlines such as “the most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record”, even “the deadliest storm in history”.

But two minutes on the internet could show that, of the 10 “deadliest” such storms ever, Hurricane Mitch (1998) killed 11,000 people in Central America, the death toll there from Fifi-Orlene (1974) was 8,000, and 7,000 died in the Caribbean from Flora (1963).

As for the “most powerful” storms, measured by wind speed, Irma’s 185mph stands alongside Wilma in 2005, Gilbert in 1988 and the US Labor Day hurricane of 1935; Allen (1980), which killed 269, topped them all at 190mph.
So Irma hardly matches up to all its hysterical billing and was almost certainly outperformed by numerous hurricanes in history which happened before their intensity could be measured – the “Great Barbados Hurricane” of 1780 killed 20,000 or more in the Windward Islands.

But at least one person who got what he wanted from Irma was Justin Webb, of the Today programme on BBC Radio 4. Last week I wrote about how he tried in vain to persuade various interviewees to blame Storm Harvey on climate change. Finally, on Thursday, he got the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda to trot out all the required mantras, in a manner that not even Al Gore could have faulted.

“The science is very clear.” “Climate change is real.” This “unprecedented” disaster has been one of the consequences.

By Friday, Today had even found two “experts” to discuss whether the world’s top “CO2 polluting” fossil-fuel companies could be made to pay for the clean-up after Irma.

What a good thing the Today programme wasn’t around at the time of the Great Barbados Hurricane of 1780.

Full post

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September 9, 2017 at 09:59AM

Daily News

Fact: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Can’t Be Blamed on Global Warming

By ALAN REYNOLDS, Cato Institute “Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like: It’s time to open our eyes and prepare for the world that’s coming.” That August 28 Politico article by Slate weatherman Eric Holthaus was one of many trying too hard to blame the hurricane and/or flood on climate change. Such stories are typically infused with smug arrogance. Their authors…

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September 9, 2017 at 09:59AM