I started writing about climate nine years ago with this article in The Register. I pointed out that Arctic experts are wildly incompetent hacks, and came under attack by Walt Meier at NSIDC for doing so.

Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered • The Register

Here are the expert predictions I was making fun of – Arctic to be ice-free in 2008.

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

North Pole to be ice-free in 2008.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

North Pole could be ice free in 2008 | New Scientist

Based on the advice of these experts, Lewis Pugh tried to kayak to the North Pole.

BBC NEWS | UK | Swimmer aims to kayak to N Pole

Pugh didn’t get very far, and the fake news press quite predictably declared victory in defeat.

Explorer kayaks to 1,000 km from N.Pole

mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

The Reuters story read :

In normal years, there would be no open water north of Spitzbergen.

As with almost everything else reported by the press, this was fake news which the author simply made up. Here is some actual news from 95 years ago.

last winter, the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.

US Consul Norway, 1922

mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

Arctic ice didn’t disappear in 2008, and there was more ice near Spitzbergen than normal.

N_200809_extn_v2.1.png (420×500)

The leading experts from Norway, Canada and the US had no clue what they were talking about, and the press lied and never retracted their fake stories – but nothing unusual about that.

Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts
– Richard Feynman

That isn’t the prediction I am making fun of in this post however. Ten years ago, America’s top experts predicted the Arctic would be ice-free by 2012. They said “The Arctic is screaming.”

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Their forecast was based on the commonly held superstition that 0.0004 mole fraction atmospheric CO2 controls ice behavior, and the forecast of course failed – because they had no clue what they were talking about. There has been no change in Arctic sea ice extent since those forecasts were made a decade ago..

masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

The 2007 article said Greenland was melting down and was the canary in the coal mine. Ten years later Greenland had their fifth largest mass gain on record.

Guest post: How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2017 | Carbon Brief

In that 2007 article, scientists announced that a weakened jet stream caused drought in the Southeast.

This week they claimed the exact opposite, saying a weakened jet stream causes floods.

CO2 is changing the jet stream in ways that will create more Harveys – ThinkProgress

Climate scientists have no clue what they are talking about. Global warming theory is junk science, and there appear to be no limitations on how these crooked snake oil salesmen will change their story to keep the scam alive.

via The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

http://ift.tt/2eVaNK7

September 4, 2017 at 09:27AM

2017: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

For the August Report there were 37 contributions with the median Outlook value for September 2017 Arctic sea ice extent of 4.5 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometers (See Figure 1 in the Overview section, below). These values are unchanged from the July Report, which is consistent with the moderating impact of summer 2017 Arctic weather. The range is 3.1 to 5.5 million square kilometers in August, unchanged from the July Outlook. To place this Outlook in context, recently observed values were 4.3 million square kilometers in 2007, 3.6 million square kilometers in 2012, and 4.7 million square kilometers in 2016. 

These are predictions for the September 2017 monthly average ice extent as estimated by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2017 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets.

The graph shows puts 2017 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2017 was below the 10-year average for the first 4 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained average through August. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the decade with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2017 is running below MASIE and is currently matching 2007 and 2012.

The table below provides the numbers for comparisons.

Monthly	2017	2017	2017	2017-10yr Ave	2017-10yr Ave	2017- 2007
Averages	MASIE	SII	SII Deficit	MASIE	SII	MASIE
Jan	13.503	13.174	-0.329	-0.418	-0.512	-0.259
Feb	14.478	14.112	-0.366	-0.363	-0.440	-0.173
Mar	14.509	14.273	-0.236	-0.544	-0.542	-0.114
Apr	13.941	13.760	-0.180	-0.412	-0.446	0.246
May	12.838	12.618	-0.220	0.075	-0.138	0.412
June	10.975	10.720	-0.255	0.069	-0.218	0.148
July	8.383	7.901	-0.482	0.024	-0.206	0.367
Aug	6.006	5.472	-0.533	0.051	-0.185	0.421

The first two columns are the 2017 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the SII deificts in column three.  The difference has doubled the last two months and averaged -325k km2 for the YTD. Column four shows MASIE 2017 compared to MASIE 10 year average, while column five shows SII 2017 compared to SII 10 year average.  YTD MASIE is -190k km2 to average and SII is -336k km2 to average.  The last column shows MASIE 2017 holding an August surplus of 421k km2 over 2007.  For the YTD 2017 is 131k km2 higher than 2007, due to this year’s deficits in the early months.

Summary

The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2017 September to be higher than 2007 and slightly lower than 2016.  The way MASIE is going, this September looks to go higher than 2016 unless some bad weather intervenes.

Footnote:

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year’s charts can not be compared with another year? Researchers do this, including Walt Meier in charge of Sea Ice Index. That said, I understand his interest in directing people to use his product rather than one he does not control. As I have said before:

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

MASIE: “high-resolution, accurate charts of ice conditions”
Walt Meier, NSIDC, October 2015 article in Annals of Glaciology.

via Science Matters

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September 4, 2017 at 08:57AM

By Paul Homewood

h/t Patsy Lacey

The Guardian is peddling the latest climate scare, about how all of our fish are migrating to cooler parts:

Britain must prepare itself for invasions of growing numbers of foreign sea creatures attracted by our warming waters, a new report has warned. Some newcomers could have devastating effects, others could be beneficial, say the researchers.

Examples provided by the team include slipper limpets that could destroy mussel and oyster beds. By contrast, new arrivals such as the American razor clam and Pacific oyster could become the bases of profitable industries for British fishermen.

The humble haddock is being forced polewards by rising ocean temperatures. Photograph: Getty Images/Dorling Kindersley

The team’s research also stresses that Britons will have to change their ideas about the seafood they eat as favourites will disappear from UK waters. Haddock and cod are being forced polewards as ocean temperatures rise, while flatfish like sole and plaice have nowhere suitable to go. At the same time, cuttlefish and sardines are being caught in rising numbers and are destined to become the fish of the future for Britain.

Native species of mussels, fish or oysters could be displaced. Harbours and boats could be fouled or blocked

The latest report, published in Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, provides a crystal ball that could highlight which parts of our coastlines will be most vulnerable to climate change triggered by rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gas emissions produced by cars, factories and power plants. Sea temperatures around Britain have already risen by more than 1.5C in the past 30 years because of these changes, and scientists have warned this trend could continue for much of the rest of the century.

“In a few decades the temperature of our seas is likely to be roughly the same as those found in the waters around Portugal at the turn of the last century – so we can expect to find the kind of marine life that existed there in British seas in the near future,” said marine biologist Professor Stephen Simpson, of Exeter University. “Apart from cuttlefish and sardines – which are already moving into our waters – we can expect fish like red mullet and john dory to be more common. By contrast the haddock is already disappearing from the southern North Sea, while plaice and sole are also becoming less and less prevalent. Fortunately, cod appears to be more resilient.”

http://ift.tt/2gxWefx

 

The idea that GHGs can make any measurable difference to the temperature of our deep oceans is frankly gibberish.

In fact large scale migrations of fish are nothing new.

As HH Lamb described in his book, “Climate, History and The Modern World”, seas became much colder in Little Ice Age, particularly during the 17thC. As a result, cod left their usual waters around Iceland, the Faroes, and even Shetland and Norway.

Yet during the Middle Ages cod was abundant even off West Greenland, just as now:

http://ift.tt/2eD0mxU

In more recent times, the Greenland cod again migrated to warmer seas, as the temperatures plummeted in the 1960s, heading to Iceland, where cod was already struggling. Herring too left Icelandic waters.

 

All of these movements occurred because of natural climate change, linked to oceanic and other factors. There is no evidence that current changes are any different.

Meanwhile it was the Guardian itself that reported two years ago how North Sea cod stocks are growing rapidly:

North Sea cod stocks are improving rapidly and could be certified as sustainable within five years, according to fresh analysis.

The fish, once one of the most disastrous examples of overfishing, is now closer to being certified as being sustainable as gurnard, a species which consumers have previously been encouraged to eat instead of cod.

http://ift.tt/1UotCTD

In reality, warmer oceans can only be a good thing for the world’s fish. After all, they seem to thrive in the warmest seas. The fact that fish such as cod can now survive further north increases the range of fish stocks generally.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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September 4, 2017 at 08:42AM

Models have lately been trending hurricane Irma to hit southern Florida, with a turn to the north, driving it through the center of the state as a Cat4 or Cat5 Hurricane. Hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue notes: “GFS 00z track shifted considerably to west. Regardless of intensity issues, still a plausible track & worst case…

via Watts Up With That?

http://ift.tt/2exyZSt

September 4, 2017 at 07:07AM