By Paul Homewood
The announcement by the Global Carbon Project this week, that China’s emissions of CO2 were on course for a 3.5% rise this year, seems to have blindsided a lot of people.
For instance, Justin Webb on the BBC Today programme on Monday, while interviewing Corrinne Le Quere, stated:
“We were talking to Al Gore on this programme relatively recently, and he was quite positive about some of the steps China has taken”
[Just a thought – maybe the BBC might stop treating con merchants like Gore as “experts” in future]
The Tyndall Centre’s Le Quere herself seemed just as surprised by the news.
Quite why anybody did not see this coming beats me. All they had to do was read China’s INDC for Paris two years ago.
Essentially, China made three substantive pledges for 2030:
- Peak CO2 emissions around 2030
- Lower emissions of CO2 per unit of GDP by 60% from 2005 levels
- Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20%
The first pledge, of course, did not say at what level they would peak at, but simple analysis suggested that they would be at a substantially higher level than now.
The second pledge was essentially worthless, as lower emissions per unit of GDP tend to result as economies mature anyway.
That leaves the third pledge.
According to the China Energy Portal, non-fossil fuels already accounted for 12% of primary energy in 2015, so on the face of it we are not looking at a radical change.
China’s 13th Five Year Plan (FYP), which runs from 2016 to 2020, has quite a lot of detail about energy projections for that period.
The FYP has a target that 15% of primary energy consumption should come from non-fossil fuels by 2020. We can see what this means for the electricity sector, which accounts for most of the target. (Biofuels and solar hot water heaters also contribute a small amount currently).
We can see that last year non-fossil fuels already made up 29% of the electricity mix. (Biomass is included in thermal, but is estimated to be less than 1%):
However, most of this 29% comes from hydro and nuclear. In contrast, wind and solar are distinctly unimpressive.
Fast forward to 2020, and not much appears to have changed. Wind and solar creep up from 5% to 8%, along with a small increase in nuclear:
This does not tell the whole story though, as total electricity generation is projected to rise from 5989 TWh to 7000 TWh, an increase of 17%. (That is why, for instance, the share of hydro drops, even though actual output rises).
We can get a better idea by comparing the generation figures for 2016 and 2020:
Generation is forecast to rise in all sectors, but the biggest increase comes from thermal, which will be 446 TWh higher and will account for nearly half of the total increase. This equates to an increase of 10% in thermal power.
Natural gas currently is small beer in the mix, only supplying 3% of total electricity last year, so it appears likely that most of the extra thermal will come from coal.
There is expected to be a shift to more efficient coal power generation, as old plants are replaced by new. Nevertheless, it is clear that CO2 emissions must continue to rise over the period, as long as demand keeps rising.
There is very little detailed planning for between 2020 and 2030, as the Chinese Government sticks rigidly to Five Year plans. Nevertheless, there are some clues.
The National Development and Reform Commission published the “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” earlier this year. It told us that total annual primary energy consumption would be kept below 6 billion tonnes coal equivalent until 2030.
We already know that total primary energy consumption in 2015 was 4316 billion tonnes coal equivalent, and that non-fossil fuels share was 12%. We can therefore deduct that fossil fuels equated to 3798 billion tonnes coal equivalent.
China’s INDC informs us that non-fossil fuels will account for 20% of total energy by 2030, which means that fossil fuels will equate to 4800 billion tonnes coal equivalent (ie 6000 x 80%).
This means that energy from fossil fuels will rise from 3798 to 4800 billion tonnes coal equivalent between 2015 and 2030, an increase of 26%.
There will certainly be a switch from coal to gas, and a transition to more efficient coal power production, both of which will help to mitigate CO2 emissions.
However, it seems pretty likely that emissions will continue to grow substantially up to 2030. (It is worth noting that nowhere in China’s INDC, or as far as I can see in their Development Plans, is there any specific quantification of emissions targets – I think the reasons are clear).
Regardless of the actual emissions numbers going forward, it is abundantly clear that fossil fuels, and coal in particular, will remain the mainstay of China’s energy mix for many years to come.
Indeed, the NDRC’s Strategy Report makes a point of emphasising this fact:
The idea that China will suddenly start to decarbonise after 2030 is deluded.
Which brings us back to the BBCs, Corrinne Le Queres and Al Gores of the world.
It has been abundantly clear from of the data and plans coming out of China that emissions will carry on increasing in the years up to 2030. So why can they not see it?
Are they so suffocated in groupthink that they now only believe their own propaganda?
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November 18, 2017 at 12:39PM
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